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Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe

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  • Ščasný, Milan
  • Massetti, Emanuele
  • Melichar, Jan
  • Carrara, Samuel

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of the economic benefit of air quality improvements in Europe that occur as a side effect of GHG emission reductions. We consider three climate policy scenarios that reach radiative forcing levels in 2100 of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). These targets are achieved by introducing a global uniform tax on all GHG emissions in the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH, assuming both full as well as limited technological flexibility. The resulting consumption patterns of fossil fuels are used to estimate the physical impacts and the economic benefits of pollution reductions on human health and on key assets by implementing the most advanced version of the ExternE methodology with its Impact Pathway Analysis. We find that the mitigation scenario compatible with +2°C reduces total pollution costs in Europe by 76%. Discounted ancillary benefits are more than €2.5 trillion between 2015 and 2100. The monetary value of reduced pollution is equal to €22 per abated ton of CO2 in Europe. Less strict climate policy scenarios generate overall smaller, but still considerable, local benefits (14 € or 18 € per abated ton of CO2). Without discounting, the ancillary benefits are in a range of €36 to €50 per ton of CO2 abated. Cumulative ancillary benefits exceed the cumulative additional cost of electricity generation in Europe. Each European country alone would be better off if the mitigation policy was implemented, although the local benefits in absolute terms vary significantly across the countries. We can identify the relative losers and winners of ancillary benefits in Europe. In particular, we find that large European countries contribute to as much as they benefit from ancillary benefits. The scenarios with limited technology flexibility do deliver results that are similar to the full technology flexibility scenario.

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  • Ščasný, Milan & Massetti, Emanuele & Melichar, Jan & Carrara, Samuel, 2016. "Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 230586, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemcl:230586
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.230586
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    5. Böhringer, Christoph & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2022. "Europe beyond coal – An economic and climate impact assessment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
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    7. Mach, Radomír & Weinzettel, Jan & Ščasný, Milan, 2018. "Environmental Impact of Consumption by Czech Households: Hybrid Input–Output Analysis Linked to Household Consumption Data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 62-73.
    8. Olga Kiuila & Anil Markandya & Milan Ščasný, 2019. "Taxing air pollutants and carbon individually or jointly: results from a CGE model enriched by an emission abatement sector," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, January.
    9. Lucas Bretschger & Evgenij Komarov, 2023. "All Inclusive Climate Policy in a Growing Economy: The Role of Human Health," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 23/384, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    10. Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zhang, Binyi, 2022. "Return and volatility spillovers between Chinese and U.S. clean energy related stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Rick Van der Ploeg & Armon Rezai, 2017. "The Simple Arithmetic of Carbon Pricing and Stranded Assets," OxCarre Working Papers 197, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    12. Lukáš Rečka & Milan Ščasný, 2017. "Impacts of Reclassified Brown Coal Reserves on the Energy System and Deep Decarbonisation Target in the Czech Republic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, November.
    13. Thomas Sterner, 2015. "Beyond IPCC, Research for Paris 2015 and Beyond," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 207-215, October.
    14. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek & Binyi Zhang, 2021. "Return and volatility spillovers between Chinese and U.S. Clean Energy Related Stocks: Evidence from VAR-MGARCH estimations," FFA Working Papers 4.001, Prague University of Economics and Business, revised 17 Jan 2022.
    15. Karel Janda & Jan Malek & Lukas Recka, 2017. "The Influence of Renewable Energy Sources on the Czech Electricity Transmission System," Working Papers IES 2017/06, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Mar 2017.
    16. Jorge A. Bonilla & Claudia Aravena & Ricardo Morales-Betancourt, 2023. "Assessing Multiple Inequalities and Air Pollution Abatement Policies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(3), pages 695-727, March.
    17. Ščasný, Milan & Máca, Vojtěch & Melichar, Jan & Rečka, Lukáš, 2015. "Kvantifikace environmentálních a zdravotních dopadů (externích nákladů) z povrchové těžby hnědého uhlí v Severočeské hnědouhelné pánvi v těžebních lokalitách velkolomů Bílina a ČSA a využití vydobytéh," MPRA Paper 66600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Vojtěch Máca & Jan Melichar, 2016. "The Health Costs of Revised Coal Mining Limits in Northern Bohemia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, January.
    19. Soo-Young Moon & Daehee Jang & Hyeon Soo Kim & Ji-Young Lee & Jonghoon Kim, 2020. "Importance of Government Roles for Market Expansion of Eco-Village Development Plan Establishment Research: Case Study in the City of Suwon, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    20. Rečka, L. & Ščasný, M., 2016. "Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 19-33.
    21. Jorge A. Bonilla & Claudia Aravena & Ricardo Morales-Betancourt, 2021. "Assessing Multiple Inequalities and Air Pollution Abatement Policies," Documentos CEDE 19465, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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