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Likelihood inference for a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model

Author

Listed:
  • Søren Johansen

    (University of Copenhagen and CREATES)

  • Morten Ørregaard Nielsen

    (Queen's University and CREATES)

Abstract

We consider model based inference in a fractionally cointegrated (or cofractional) vector autoregressive model based on the conditional Gaussian likelihood. The model allows the process X_{t} to be fractional of order d and cofractional of order d-b; that is, there exist vectors ß for which ß'X_{t} is fractional of order d-b. The parameters d and b satisfy either d=b=1/2, d=b=1/2, or d=d_{0}=b=1/2. Our main technical contribution is the proof of consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators on the set 1/2=b=d=d_{1} for any d_{1}=d_{0}. To this end, we consider the conditional likelihood as a stochastic process in the parameters, and prove that it converges in distribution when errors are i.i.d. with suitable moment conditions and initial values are bounded. We then prove that the estimator of ß is asymptotically mixed Gaussian and estimators of the remaining parameters are asymptotically Gaussian. We also find the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test for cointegration rank, which is a functional of fractional Brownian motion of type II.

Suggested Citation

  • Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2010. "Likelihood inference for a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model," CREATES Research Papers 2010-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2010-24
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    Keywords

    Cofractional processes; cointegration rank; fractional cointegration; likelihood inference; vector autoregressive model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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