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Taxing the Rich More: Preliminary Evidence from the 2013 Tax Increase

In: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 31

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  • Emmanuel Saez

Abstract

This paper provides preliminary evidence on behavioral responses to taxation around the 2013 tax increase that raised top marginal tax rates on capital income by about 9.5 points and on labor income by about 6.5 points. Using published tabulated tax statistics from the Statistics of Income division of the IRS, we find that reported top 1% incomes were significantly higher in 2012 than in 2013, implying a large short-run elasticity of reported income with respect to the net-of-tax rate in excess of one. This large short-run elasticity is due to income retiming for tax avoidance purposes and is particularly high for realized capital gains and dividends, and highest at the very top of the income distribution. However, comparing 2011 and 2015 top incomes uncovers only a small medium-term response to the tax increase as top income shares resumed their upward trend after 2013. Overall, we estimate that at most 20% of the projected tax revenue increase from the 2013 tax reform is lost through behavioral responses. This implies that the 2013 tax increase was an efficient way to raise revenue.
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  • Emmanuel Saez, 2016. "Taxing the Rich More: Preliminary Evidence from the 2013 Tax Increase," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 31, pages 71-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13868
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    1. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    2. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00944873 is not listed on IDEAS
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    8. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 553-609.
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    4. Enrico Rubolino & Daniel Waldenström, 2020. "Tax progressivity and top incomes evidence from tax reforms," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(3), pages 261-289, September.
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    8. Felix J. Bierbrauer & Pierre C. Boyer & Andreas Peichl, 2021. "Politically Feasible Reforms of Nonlinear Tax Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 153-191, January.
    9. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 553-609.
    10. James Andreoni, 2018. "The Benefits and Costs of Donor-Advised Funds," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-44.
    11. Diego Daruich, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Early Childhood Development Policies," Working Papers 2018-010, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    12. Enrico Rubolino & Daniel Waldenström, 2019. "Trends and gradients in top tax elasticities: cross-country evidence, 1900–2014," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(3), pages 457-485, June.
    13. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Héctor Zárate-Solano & Andrés Camilo Gómez-Molina, 2018. "Elasticidad del ingreso corporativo gravable en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1046, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Dennis J. Fixle & Marina Gindelsky & Robert Kornfeld, 2021. "The Feasibility of a Quarterly Distribution of Personal Income," BEA Working Papers 0191, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    15. Kindsgrab, Paul M., 2022. "Do higher income taxes on top earners trickle down? A local labor markets approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    16. Elliott Isaac, 2018. "Suddenly Married: Joint Taxation And The Labor Supply Of Same-Sex Married Couples After U.S. v. Windsor," Working Papers 1809, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    17. Ugo Troiano, 2017. "Do Taxes Increase Economic Inequality? A Comparative Study Based on the State Personal Income Tax," NBER Working Papers 24175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Buhlmann, Florian & Doerrenberg, Philipp & Voget, Johannes & Loos, Benjamin, 2020. "How do taxes affect the trading behavior of private investors? Evidence from individual portfolio data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-047, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Bartels, Charlotte & Waldenström, Daniel, 2021. "Inequality and top incomes," GLO Discussion Paper Series 959, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    20. Saez, Emmanuel & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2018. "A simpler theory of optimal capital taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 120-142.
    21. Joshua Rauh & Ryan J. Shyu, 2019. "Behavioral Responses to State Income Taxation of High Earners: Evidence from California," NBER Working Papers 26349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. E. Wesley F. Peterson, 2017. "Is Economic Inequality Really a Problem? A Review of the Arguments," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-25, December.
    23. Diego Daruich, 2017. "From Childhood to Adult Inequality: Parental Investments and Early Childhood Development," 2017 Meeting Papers 770, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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