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Correlated Beliefs, Returns, and Stock Market Volatility

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015

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  • Joel M. David
  • Ina Simonovska

Abstract

Firm-level stock returns exhibit comovement above that in fundamentals, and the gap tends to be higher in developing countries. We investigate whether correlated beliefs among sophisticated, but imperfectly informed, traders can account for the patterns of return correlations across countries. We take a unique approach by turning to direct data on market participants' information — namely, real-time firm-level earnings forecasts made by equity market analysts. The correlations of firm-level forecasts exceed those of fundamentals and are strongly related to return correlations across countries. A calibrated information-based model demonstrates that the correlation of beliefs implied by analyst forecasts leads to return correlations broadly in line with the data, both in levels and across countries — the correlation between predicted and actual is 0.63. Our findings have implications for market-wide volatility — the model-implied correlations alone can explain 44% of the cross-section of aggregate volatility. The results are robust to controlling for a number of alternative factors put forth by the existing literature.
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Suggested Citation

  • Joel M. David & Ina Simonovska, 2016. "Correlated Beliefs, Returns, and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13661
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    2. Mohammad Alomari & David. M. Power & Nongnuch Tantisantiwong, 2018. "Determinants of equity return correlations: a case study of the Amman Stock Exchange," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 33-66, January.
    3. Konstantinos Vergos & Benjamin Wanger, 2019. "Evaluating interdependencies in African markets A VECM approach," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 65-85.
    4. Galvani, Valentina, 2022. "Country-Based Investing with Exchange Rate and Reserve Currency," Working Papers 2022-5, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    5. Marcet, Francisco, 2017. "Analyst coverage network and stock return comovement in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-27.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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