IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/ces/ifofob/65.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

How Can the Crisis Vulnerability of Emerging Economies Be Reduced?

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Abberger
  • Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay
  • Chang Woon Nam
  • Gernot Nerb
  • Siegfried Schönherr

Abstract

Emerging countries in many cases are more crisis-prone than highly developed industrialized countries. This is in many cases due to a weak or volatile financial sector. The best policy to strengthen crisis resistance is the building up of a sound financial position. A sound financial position of a country also increases the capacities to get out of a crisis. For getting out of a crisis, however, an important additional general condition must be fulfilled: the economy must increase its international competitiveness to assure growth, the only way out of a crisis. Building up a sound financial position and a competitive private sector, therefore, should be a pre-crisis policy. It relates to the public sector as well as the financial institutions. Once a crisis has erupted in an unsound financial environment there is no chance to escape a crisis sustainably avoiding a painful process. The blueprint for getting out of a crisis suggests a complex policy approach. The private financial sector must undergo structural reforms (in reality closing down or downscaling unsound institutions) and the government must apply fiscal austerity measures to reduce public debt, regaining credibility and by this creating new fiscal options for counteracting crisis effects. Labour costs can be reduced by increasing the labour market flexibility (e.g. by easier hiring and firing and higher wage spreads especially towards the lower wage scale) and by measures directly reducing labour costs. The result of such measures will be an increase of unemployment and of felt unemployment risks by large population groups as well as general real income losses from labour. The fiscal austerity measures in addition and in short term will reduce economic activities and thus aggravate the social problems. These negative social effects of getting out of a crisis are the most crucial and controversial policy issue. People and their interest organizations to a greatly varying extent will accept or refuse

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Chang Woon Nam & Gernot Nerb & Siegfried Schönherr, 2014. "How Can the Crisis Vulnerability of Emerging Economies Be Reduced?," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:65
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifo_Forschungsberichte_65.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
    2. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
    3. Jesus P. Estanislao & George N. Manzano & Gloria O. Pasadilla, 2000. "The Asian Financial Crisis: An East Asian Perspective," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 14(1), pages 11-22, May.
    4. Raul Eamets & Urmas Varblane & Kaja Sostra, 2003. "External Macroeconomic Shocks and the Estonian economy: How did the Russian Financial Crisis affect Estonian Unemployment and Foreign Trade?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 5-24, July.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2006. "Why doesn’t Asia have bigger bond markets?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asian bond markets: issues and prospects, volume 30, pages 40-77, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2010. "The Aftermath of Natural Disasters: Beyond Destruction," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 25-35, July.
    7. Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "The Euro crisis and the new impossible trinity," Policy Contributions 674, Bruegel.
    8. Burda, Michael C., 2008. "What kind of shock was it? Regional integration and structural change in Germany after unification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 557-567, December.
    9. Kevin Amess & Panicos Demetriades, 2001. "Financial Liberalisation and the South Korean Financial Crisis: Some Qualitative Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics 01/3, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    11. Pettis, Michael, 2001. "The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economies and the Threat of Financial Collapse," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195143300.
    12. Raul Eamets, 2012. "Labour Market in Estonia: Responding to the Global Finance Crisis," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(2), pages 34-39, 08.
    13. Mr. Christopher W. Crowe & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Jun I Kim & Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh, 2009. "Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/008, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Sherry L. Kiser & Jahyeong Koo, 2001. "Recovery from a financial crisis: the case of South Korea," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 24-36.
    16. Yasuhide Okuyama, 2010. "Globalization and Localization of Disaster Impacts: An Empirical Examination," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 56-66, July.
    17. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Johnson, Chalmers, 1998. "Economic Crisis in East Asia: The Clash of Capitalisms," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 22(6), pages 653-661, November.
    20. Hahm, Joon-Ho & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2000. "The Korean financial crisis: an asymmetric information perspective," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 21-52, May.
    21. Barrell Ray & Willem te Velde Dirk, 2000. "Catching-up of East German Labour Productivity in the 1990s," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 271-297, August.
    22. Biswa N. Bhattacharyay & Dennis Dlugosch & Benedikt Kolb & Kajal Lahiri & Irshat Mukhametov & Gernot Nerb, 2009. "Early Warning System for Economic and Financial Risks in Kazakhstan," CESifo Working Paper Series 2832, CESifo.
    23. Hans‐Werner Sinn, 2002. "Germany’s Economic Unification: An Assessment after Ten Years," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 113-128, February.
    24. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, March.
    25. Lagunoff, Roger & Schreft, Stacey L., 2001. "A Model of Financial Fragility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 99(1-2), pages 220-264, July.
    26. Mario Mazzocchi & Francesca Hansstein & Maddalena Ragona, 2010. "The 2010 Volcanic Ash Cloud and Its Financial Impact on the European Airline Industry," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 92-100, July.
    27. repec:ces:ifodic:v:10:y:2012:i:2:p:18948070 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    29. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    30. Peter Broer & Jürgen Antony, 2010. "Linkages between the Financial and the Real Sector of the Economy: A Literature Survey," CPB Document 216.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    31. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. John B. Taylor, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 686-702, September.
    33. Edwards, Sebastian & Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 505-532, December.
    34. Peter Gordon & James E. Moore II & Jiyoung Park & Harry W. Richardson, 2010. "Short-Run Economic Impacts of Hurricane Katrina (and Rita)," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 73-79, July.
    35. Furceri, Davide & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2012. "How costly are debt crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 726-742.
    36. Wolfgang Kron, 2010. "Natural Catastrophes: Do We Have to Live with Them?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 3-13, July.
    37. Didier, Tatiana & Hevia, Constantino & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2011. "How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies to the global financial crisis ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5637, The World Bank.
    38. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur erholt sich – Wirtschaftspolitik stärker an der langen Frist ausrichten," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(03), pages 10-13, June.
    39. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    40. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    41. Christopher W. Crowe & Jonathan David Ostry & Jun I Kim & Marcos d Chamon & Atish R. Ghosh, 2009. "Coping with the Crisis; Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/08, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Richard J. Herring & Nathporn Chatusripitak, 2000. "The Case of the Missing Market: The Bond Market and Why It Matters for Financial Development," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    43. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    44. John B. Hall & Udo Ludwig, 2006. "Economic convergence across German regions in light of empirical findings," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 30(6), pages 941-953, November.
    45. Piet Clement, 2010. "The term “macroprudential”: origins and evolution," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    46. Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1996. "Is Asia an Optimum Currency Area? Can It Become One? Regional, Global and Historical Perspectives on Asian Monetary Relations," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt1td5x343, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    47. Chang, Ha-Joon & Park, Hong-Jae & Yoo, Chul Gyue, 1998. "Interpreting the Korean Crisis: Financial Liberalisation, Industrial Policy and Corporate Governance," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 22(6), pages 735-746, November.
    48. Jong‐Wha LEE & Changyong RHEE, 2007. "Crisis and Recovery: What We Have Learned from the South Korean Experience?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 146-164, June.
    49. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Shynar Shaikh, 2009. "Findings of the Signal Approach for Financial Monitoring in Kazakhstan," CESifo Working Paper Series 2774, CESifo.
    50. André Cartapanis & Vincent Dropsy & Sophie Mametz, 2002. "The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 79-91, February.
    51. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur erholt sich – Wirtschaftspolitik stärker an der langen Frist ausrichten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(08), pages 03-77, April.
    52. repec:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:113-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Peter Broer & Jürgen Antony, 2010. "Linkages between the Financial and the Real Sector of the Economy: A Literature Survey," CPB Document 216, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    54. Raul Eamets, 2012. "Labour Market in Estonia: Responding to the Global Finance Crisis," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(02), pages 34-39, August.
    55. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Construction of Composite Business Cycle Indicators in a Sparse Data Environment," CESifo Working Paper Series 3557, CESifo.
    56. Goldfajn, Ilan & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 1998. "Are currency crises predictable?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 873-885, May.
    57. Ernest Gnan, 2009. "Energy, Commodity and Food Price Volatility: What Policy Responses?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(01), pages 21-28, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Chang Woon Nam, 2008. "What Happened to Korea Ten Years Ago?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(04), pages 69-73, December.
    3. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    4. Mustapha Djennas & Mohamed Benbouziane & Meriem Djennas, 2011. "An Approach of Combining Empirical Mode Decomposition and Neural Network Learning for Currency Crisis Forecasting," Working Papers 627, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    5. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    6. Cruz-Rodríguez Alexis, 2013. "The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 13(4), pages 176-194, December.
    7. Chang Woon Nam, 2008. "What Happened to Korea Ten Years Ago?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(4), pages 69-73, December.
    8. Furceri, Davide & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2012. "Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Emerging and Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2369-2378.
    9. Diana Zigraiova & Petr Jakubik, 2014. "Systemic Event Prediction by Early Warning System," Working Papers IES 2014/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2014.
    10. Biswa N. Bhattacharyay & Dennis Dlugosch & Benedikt Kolb & Kajal Lahiri & Irshat Mukhametov & Gernot Nerb, 2009. "Early Warning System for Economic and Financial Risks in Kazakhstan," CESifo Working Paper Series 2832, CESifo.
    11. Rakesh Padhan & K. P. Prabheesh, 2019. "Effectiveness Of Early Warning Models: A Critical Review And New Agenda For Future Direction," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 457-484, December.
    12. David Fernando LOPEZ ANGARITA, 2006. "Nivel óptimo de Reservas Internacionales y crisis cambiaria en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 3273, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    13. Ivo Krznar, 2004. "Currency Crisis: Theory and Practice with Application to Croatia," Working Papers 12, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    14. Can Sever, 2022. "Financial crises and institutional quality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1510-1525, January.
    15. Juan Francisco Martínez & José Miguel Matus & Daniel Oda, 2018. "Taxonomy of Chilean Financial Fragility Periods from 1975 to 2017," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 822, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Ilene Grabel, 2003. "Predicting Financial Crisis in Developing Economies: Astronomy or Astrology?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 243-258, Spring.
    17. Ilene GRABEL, 2004. "Trip Wires And Speed Bumps: Managing Financial Risks And Reducing The Potential For Financial Crises In Developing Economies," G-24 Discussion Papers 33, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    18. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 2011. "Currency crises," Working Paper Series 2011-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Biswa N. Bhattacharyay, 2009. "Towards a Macroprudential Surveillance and Remedial Policy Formulation System for Monitoring Financial Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2803, CESifo.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.