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The NIRCU and the Phillips curve: an approach based on micro data

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  • Eva M. Köberl
  • Sarah M. Lein

Abstract

In this paper we propose a straightforward method to derive a non‐inflationary rate of capacity utilization (NIRCU) based on micro data. We condition the current capacity utilization of firms on their current and planned price adjustments. The non‐inflationary capacity utilization rate is then defined as the rate where a firm feels no price adjustment pressure. One of the main advantages is that this methodology uses structural aspects and does not make it necessary to operate with – often rather arbitrary – statistical filters. We show that our aggregate NIRCU performs remarkably well as an indicator of inflationary pressure in a Phillips curve estimation. Dans ce mémoire, on propose une méthode simple pour dériver le taux non‐inflationniste d'utilisation de la capacité (NIRCU) à partir de micro‐données. On établit l'utilization de la capacité des firmes sur la base des ajustements (présents ou anticipés) de prix. Le taux non‐inflationniste d'utilisation de la capacité est alors défini comme celui où la firme ne ressent aucune pression pour ajuster ses prix. L'un des principaux avantages de cette approche est que cette méthodologie utilise les aspects structurels et ne nécessite pas qu'on utilise des filtres statistiques souvent arbitraires. On montre que le NIRCU agrégé performe relativement bien en tant qu'indicateur de la pression inflationniste dans la calibration de la courbe de Phillips.

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  • Eva M. Köberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2011. "The NIRCU and the Phillips curve: an approach based on micro data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 673-694, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:44:y:2011:i:2:p:673-694
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5982.2011.01649.x
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    1. Pirmin Fessler & Fabio Rumler & Gerhard Schwarz, 2014. "A micro-based non-inflationary rate of capacity utilisation as a measure of inflationary pressure: evidence for Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 23-36, February.
    2. Alex Contreras M. & Pablo Del Aguila R. & Fernando Alonso Regalado S. & F. Martín Martinez P., 2017. "Brecha de la capacidad de utilización como medida alternativa de la brecha producto: Un enfoque para Perú basado en micro datos," Working Papers 94, Peruvian Economic Association.
    3. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2013. "How do individual forecasters change their views? An analysis with micro panel data," FindEcon Chapters: Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making, in: Władysław Milo & Piotr Wdowiński (ed.), Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 295/2013 - Financial Markets and Macroprudential Policy, edition 1, volume 127, chapter 5, pages 79-92, University of Lodz.
    4. Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker, 2014. "The inflation expectations of firms: what do they look like, are they accurate, and do they matter?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Richard Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "The Intermittent Phillips Curve: Finding a Stable (But Persistence-Dependent) Phillips Curve Model Specification," Working Papers 19-09R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 14 Feb 2023.
    6. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
    7. Crosilla, Luciana & Leproux, Solange & Malgarini, Marco, 2014. "The impact of the crisis on italian industrial capacity: an assessment based on the istat manufacturing survey," MPRA Paper 67531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. G. Bruno & L. Crosilla & P. Margani, 2019. "Inspecting the Relationship Between Business Confidence and Industrial Production: Evidence on Italian Survey Data," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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