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World Bank Lending and the Quality of Economic Policy

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  • Lodewijk Smets
  • Stephen Knack

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of World Bank development policy lending on the quality of economic policy. It finds that the quality of policy increases, but at a diminishing rate, with the cumulative number of policy loans. Similar results hold for the cumulative number of conditions attached to policy loans, although quadratic specifications indicate that additional conditions may even reduce the quality of policy beyond some point. The paper measures the quality of economic policy using the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessments of macro, debt, fiscal, and structural policies, and considers only policy loans targeted at improvements in those areas. Previous studies finding weaker effects of policy lending on macro stability have failed to distinguish loans primarily intended to improve economic policy from other loans targeted at improvements in sector policies or in public management. The paper also shows that investing in economic policy does not ‘crowd out’ policy improvements in other areas, such as public sector governance or human development. The results are robust to using alternative indicators of policy quality and correcting for endogeneity with system generalized methods of moments and cross-sectional two-stage least squares. The more positive results in the study relative to some previous studies are consistent with claims by the World Bank that it has learned from its mistakes with traditional adjustment lending.

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  • Lodewijk Smets & Stephen Knack, 2016. "World Bank Lending and the Quality of Economic Policy," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 72-91, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:52:y:2016:i:1:p:72-91
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2015.1068290
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    Cited by:

    1. Lodewijk Smets & Stephen Knack, 2018. "World Bank Policy Lending and the Quality of Public-Sector Governance," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 29-54.
    2. Samuel Brazys & Johan A. Elkink & Gina Kelly, 2017. "Bad neighbors? How co-located Chinese and World Bank development projects impact local corruption in Tanzania," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 227-253, June.
    3. Philip Keefer & Christopher Kilby, 2021. "Introduction to the special issue: In memoriam Stephen Knack," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 473-493, July.
    4. Thomas Stubbs & Bernhard Reinsberg & Alexander Kentikelenis & Lawrence King, 2020. "How to evaluate the effects of IMF conditionality," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 29-73, January.
    5. Moll, Peter & Geli, Patricia & Saavedra, Pablo, 2015. "Correlates of success in World Bank development policy lending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7181, The World Bank.
    6. Peter Moll & Lodewijk Smets, 2020. "Is It the Journey That Matters? A Fresh Look at the Impact of World Bank Policy Lending," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 1194-1228, October.
    7. Axel Dreher & Jenny Simon & Justin Valasek, 2021. "Optimal decision rules in multilateral aid funds," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 689-719, July.
    8. Knack,Stephen & Parks,Bradley Christopher & Harutyunyan,Ani & DiLorenzo,Matthew, 2020. "How Does the World Bank Influence the Development Policy Priorities of Low-Income and Lower-Middle Income Countries ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9225, The World Bank.

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