IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/irapec/v18y2004i1p1-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explaining European Unemployment: Testing the NAIRU Hypothesis and a Keynesian Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Engelbert Stockhammer

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to compare the NAIRU hypothesis regarding ­European unemployment and a Keynesian approach to the issue and to evaluate them econometrically. For the NAIRU explanation, wage push variables are key in explaining the rise of European unemployment, for a Keynesian approach it is capital accumulation that is key. The theories are tested using time series data for Germany, France, Italy, the UK and the USA, using the seemingly unrelated regression method (SUR). Unemployment benefits, union density and the tax wedge are used as wage push variables, and the growth of business capital stock as the accumulation variable. The NAIRU specification performs poorly, with only the tax wedge having a positive effect on unemployment as predicted and only unemployment benefits having a negative effect on employment growth. However the results are not robust to changes in the specification. The Keynesian approach is more successful, with capital accumulation being statistically significant in all countries and robust to changes in the specification. Moreover, it can be pooled across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Engelbert Stockhammer, 2004. "Explaining European Unemployment: Testing the NAIRU Hypothesis and a Keynesian Approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:18:y:2004:i:1:p:1-26
    DOI: 10.1080/0269217032000148618
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0269217032000148618
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/0269217032000148618?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Arestis, Philip & Mariscal, Iris Biefang-Frisancho, 1998. "Capital shortages and asymmetries in UK unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 189-204, June.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    4. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    5. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer (ed.), 2001. "Money, Finance and Capitalist Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2307.
    6. Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
    7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Oliver J. Blanchard, 1997. "The Medium Run," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 89-158.
    9. Solow, Robert M., 2000. "Growth Theory: An Exposition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195109030.
    10. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    11. E. Yndgaard & Palle S. Andersen & Marc Klau, 1999. "Higher profits and lower capital prices: is factor allocation optimal?," BIS Working Papers 65, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The NAIRU, Aggregate Demand and Investment," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 66-94, February.
    13. Dutt, Amitava Krishna, 1984. "Stagnation, Income Distribution and Monopoly Power," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(1), pages 25-40, March.
    14. Laurence M. Ball, 1997. "Disinflation and the NAIRU," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 167-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    16. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    17. Rowthorn, Robert, 1999. "Unemployment, Wage Bargaining and Capital-Labour Substitution," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 23(4), pages 413-425, July.
    18. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1993. "Distribution, Aggregate Demand and Unemployment in OECD Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 459-467, March.
    19. Assar Lindbeck, 1993. "Unemployment and Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121751, April.
    20. Nickell, Stephen, 1998. "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 802-816, May.
    21. Philip Arestis, 1990. "Money, Interest and Capital," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 939-942, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    2. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rob Calvert Jump, 2022. "An Estimation of Unemployment Hysteresis," Working Papers PKWP2221, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    3. Chella, Namapsa & Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Long-run cointegration between foreign direct investment, direct investment and unemployment in South Africa," MPRA Paper 82371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former european key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or by macroeconomic mismanagement?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 3-28.
    5. Engelbert Stockhammer & Erik Klär, 2011. "Capital accumulation, labour market institutions and unemployment in the medium run," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 35(2), pages 437-457.
    6. Eckhard Hein & Christian Schoder, 2011. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation -- A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 693-723, November.
    7. Ines Perez-Soba Aguilar & Elena Marquez de la Cruz & Ana Rosa Martinez-Canete & Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2006. "Capital Stock and Unemployment: Searching for the Missing Link," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_475, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Bruno Damásio & Diogo Martins, 2017. "Do Labour Market Reforms Pay Off? Unemployment and Capital Accumulation in Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. António Afonso & André Albuquerque, 2018. "Sovereign Credit Rating Mismatches," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 46, pages 49-70, July.
    10. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2011. "Wage norms, capital accumulation, and unemployment: a post-Keynesian view," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 295-311.
    11. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben, 2020. "The roots of a divided eurozone: rigid labour markets or asymmetric technology-macroeconomic regimes?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 30958, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    12. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2017. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? New Evidence from Non-threshold and Threshold Analysis," MPRA Paper 85784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Philip Arestis & Michelle Baddeley & Malcolm Sawyer, 2007. "The Relationship Between Capital Stock, Unemployment And Wages In Nine Emu Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 125-148, April.
    14. Franziska Foissner, 2018. "Folgen einer moeglichen Abschaffung der Notstandshilfe in Oberoesterreich," ICAE Working Papers 87, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    15. Yıldırım Mustafa Ozan & Yıldırım Ahmet Eren, 2017. "The Influence of Consumption and Investment on Unemployment in Turkey: A Svar Approach," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 96(1), pages 74-92, January.
    16. Vasiliki Bozani, 2011. "NAIRU, Unemployment and Post Keynesian Economics," Working Papers 1105, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    17. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome W., 2019. "Does the long-run monetary model hold for Sub-Saharan Africa? A time series and panel-cointegration study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 279-303.
    18. Diogo Martins & Bruno Damásio, 2020. "One Troika fits all? Job crash, pro-market structural reform and austerity-driven therapy in Portugal," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 495-521, August.
    19. Engelbert Stockhammer & Alexander Guschanski & Karsten Köhler, 2014. "Unemployment, capital accumulation and labour market institutions in the Great Recession," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 182-194, September.
    20. Diogo Martins, 2024. "The post-pandemic inflation debate: a critical review," Working Papers REM 2024/0308, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    5. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    6. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Paola Veroni & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoretical and empirical appraisal," Working Papers hal-03602950, HAL.
    7. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Vasiliki Bozani, 2011. "NAIRU, Unemployment and Post Keynesian Economics," Working Papers 1104, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2008. "Is The Nairu Theory A Monetarist, New Keynesian, Post Keynesian Or A Marxist Theory?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 479-510, July.
    11. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Paola Veroni & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoretical and empirical appraisal," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03602950, HAL.
    12. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 1999. "Assessing the benefits of price stability: The international experience," Estudios Económicos, Banco de España, number 69.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/9726 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9726 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Aurélien GAIMON & Vincent LAPEGUE & Paola MONPERRUS-VERONI & Noé N’SEMI & Frédéric REYNÈS & Maël THEULIERE, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle? a Theoretical and Empirical Appraisal," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    16. Antonio Rodriguez-Gil, 2018. "Hysteresis and labour market institutions. Evidence from the UK and the Netherlands," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1985-2025, December.
    17. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9726 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9726 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Bruno Damásio & Diogo Martins, 2017. "Do Labour Market Reforms Pay Off? Unemployment and Capital Accumulation in Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    20. Eckhard Hein & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2010. "Macroeconomic Policy Mix, Employment and Inflation in a Post-Keynesian Alternative to the New Consensus Model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 317-354.
    21. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2004. "Is there an equilibrium rate of unemployment in the long run?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 59-77.
    22. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoritical and empirical appraisal," Post-Print hal-03602948, HAL.
    23. António Afonso & André Albuquerque, 2018. "Sovereign Credit Rating Mismatches," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 46, pages 49-70, July.
    24. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoritical and empirical appraisal," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03602948, HAL.
    25. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "The equilibrium rate of unemployment : a theoretical discussion and an empirical evaluation for six OECD countries," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01027421, HAL.
    26. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2011. "Fiscal Policy in the Macroeconomic Policy Mix: A Critique of the New Consensus Model and a Comparison of Macroeconomic Policies in France, Germany, the UK and Sweden from a Post-Keynesian Perspective," Chapters, in: Claude Gnos & Louis-Philippe Rochon (ed.), Credit, Money and Macroeconomic Policy, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    27. Mayes, David G. & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Unemployment in a small open economy: Finland and New Zealand," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/1999, Bank of Finland.
    28. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former european key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or by macroeconomic mismanagement?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 3-28.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:18:y:2004:i:1:p:1-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.