IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/integr/0466.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Forewarning Indicator System for Financial Crises: the Case of Six Central and Eastern European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Andreou, Irène

    (GATE(CNRS, Université Lyon 2))

  • Dufrénot, Gilles

    (Université Paris 12)

Abstract

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to determine whether a system produces true predictions of a crisis, but also whether there are forewarning signs of a forthcoming crisis prior to its actual occurrence. To this end, we adopt the approach initiated by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998), analyzing each indicator and calculating each threshold separately. We depart from this approach in that each country is also analyzed separately, permitting the creation of a more “custom-made” early warning system for each one. These indicators could help to achieve a guideline, strengthening the domestic capacities to face economic integration and financial stresses.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreou, Irène & Dufrénot, Gilles, 2009. "A Forewarning Indicator System for Financial Crises: the Case of Six Central and Eastern European Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 87-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0466
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    5. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    6. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    7. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    8. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    9. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Arias, Guillaume & Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia," Working Papers 2004:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    11. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    12. Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 2003/032, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 2003/223, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
    15. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    16. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    17. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2000. "Financial Contagion in Five Small Open Economies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Really Matter?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 25-51, April.
    18. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2012. "Early Warning Indicator Model of Financial Developments Using an Ordered Logit," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 171-191, December.
    2. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    4. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    5. Irène Andreou & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "Financial Vulnerability in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 0907, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    6. Oet, Mikhail V. & Gramlich, Dieter & Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Evaluating measures of adverse financial conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 234-249.
    7. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2011. "The real effect of financial crises in the European transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 1-25, January.
    8. Mpho Bosupeng, 2018. "Leading Indicators and Financial Crisis: A Multi-Sectoral Approach Using Signal Extraction," Journal of Empirical Studies, Conscientia Beam, vol. 5(1), pages 20-44.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    2. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    3. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2006. "Robust lessons about practical early warning systems," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 163-193, February.
    4. Rakesh Padhan & K. P. Prabheesh, 2019. "Effectiveness Of Early Warning Models: A Critical Review And New Agenda For Future Direction," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 457-484, December.
    5. Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskih, 2007. "Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 111.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    7. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    8. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    9. Cruz-Rodríguez Alexis, 2013. "The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 13(4), pages 176-194, December.
    10. Brunetti, Celso & Scotti, Chiara & Mariano, Roberto S. & Tan, Augustine H.H., 2008. "Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in Southeast Asia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 104-128, June.
    11. Victor Yotzov, 2014. "Prognostic Power of Early Warning Signals for Financial Crises – Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Results," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 3-38.
    12. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    13. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
    14. Manmohan Agarwal & T. R. Vandana, 2022. "Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 42(2), pages 263-282.
    15. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    16. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante & Mlinarević, Katarina, 2003. "Determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 83140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2003.
    17. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Jo-Hui Chen & Chih-Sean Chen, 2012. "The study of contagious paces of financial crises," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(6), pages 1825-1846, October.
    19. Mustapha Djennas & Mohamed Benbouziane & Meriem Djennas, 2011. "An Approach of Combining Empirical Mode Decomposition and Neural Network Learning for Currency Crisis Forecasting," Working Papers 627, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    20. Knedlik, Tobias, 2006. "Signaling Currency Crises in South Africa," IWH Discussion Papers 19/2006, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    21. Ivo Krznar, 2004. "Currency Crisis: Theory and Practice with Application to Croatia," Working Papers 12, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency crisis; early warning system; composite indicator; Eastern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0466. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yunhoe Kim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desejkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.