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Climate change and monetary policy: issues for policy design and modelling

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  • Warwick J McKibbin
  • Adele C Morris
  • Peter J Wilcoxen
  • Augustus J Panton

Abstract

This paper explores the interaction of monetary policy and climate change as they jointly influence macroeconomic outcomes, connecting policy and outcomes in each realm to the implications of the other. It also explores the nature of the macroeconomic model that would be required to explore the links between monetary policy and climate policy. The paper has four parts. First, it reviews the relevant macroeconomic outcomes of emissions mitigation policy and climatic disruption, exploring how negative supply shocks can affect central banks’ ability to forecast and manage inflation. Second, the paper reviews basic approaches to monetary policy, including inflation and output targeting, and other responsibilities that may fall to central bankers. Third, we bring together the two sets of issues to consider the appropriate monetary framework in a carbon-constrained and climatically disrupted world and to highlight the climate policy frameworks that can make monetary policies more efficient and effective. We then summarize the nature of the macroeconomic modelling framework that is needed to better analyse climate and monetary policy interactions. We conclude that policy responses to climate change can have important implications for monetary policy and vice versa and that, in light of the urgency of ambitious climate action, these policy spheres should be brought together more explicitly and more appropriate macroeconomic modelling frameworks developed.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick J McKibbin & Adele C Morris & Peter J Wilcoxen & Augustus J Panton, 2020. "Climate change and monetary policy: issues for policy design and modelling," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 579-603.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:36:y:2020:i:3:p:579-603.
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/graa040
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2023. "No country is an island. International cooperation and climate change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate hysteresis and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Azam, Muhammad & Bruna, Maria Giuseppina & Taskin, Dilvin, 2022. "Role of financial development for sustainable economic development in low middle income countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    4. Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Trade-related food policies in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Joao R. Faria & Peter Mcadam & Bruno Viscolani, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Neutrality, and the Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1889-1906, October.
    6. Sandra Batten & Stephen Millard, 2024. "Energy and Climate Policy in a DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 553, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    7. Omodero Cordelia Onyinyechi, 2023. "Fiscal and Monetary Measures in Achieving Green Ecology: Evidence from Nigeria," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(2), pages 311-330, December.
    8. Donato Masciandaro & Romano Vincenzo Tarsia, 2021. "Society, Politicians, Climate Change and Central Banks: An Index of Green Activism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21167, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Peter Breyer & Eleonora Endlich & Dieter Huber & Doris Oswald & Christoph Prenner & Lukas Reiss & Martin Schneider & Walter Waschiczek, 2021. "Corporate equity finance in Austria – impediments and possible improvements," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/21, pages 39-57.
    10. Boneva, Lena & Ferrucci, Gianluigi, 2022. "Inflation and climate change: the role of climate variables in inflation forecasting and macro modelling," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115533, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Jan Ditzen & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "Dominant Drivers of National Inflation," Working Papers No 08/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    12. Kym Anderson, 2021. "Food policy in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Departmental Working Papers 2021-25, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    13. Feldkircher, Martin & Teliha, Viktoriya, 2024. "Speeches in the green: The political discourse of green central banking," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    14. Meinerding, Christoph & Poinelli, Andrea & Schüler, Yves, 2022. "Inflation expectations and climate concern," Discussion Papers 12/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Boneva, Lena & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2021. "To be or not to be “green”: how can monetary policy react to climate change?," Occasional Paper Series 285, European Central Bank.
    16. Ahmed Imran Hunjra & Muhammad Azam & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al‐Faryan, 2024. "The nexus between climate change risk and financial policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1401-1416, April.
    17. Shazia Kousar & Saeed Ahmad Sabir & Farhan Ahmed & Štefan Bojnec, 2022. "Climate Change, Exchange Rate, Twin Deficit, and Energy Inflation: Application of VAR Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-21, October.
    18. Donato Masciandaro & Riccardo Russo, 2022. "Central Banks and Climate Policy: Unpleasant Trade–Offs? A Principal–Agent Approach," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22181, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    19. Donato Masciandaro & Romano Vincenzo Tarsia, 2021. "Society, Politicians, Climate Change and Central Banks: An Index of Green Activism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21167, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    20. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Hassan, M. Kabir & Zaied, Younes Ben & Managi, Shunsuke, 2023. "Nexus between green finance, environmental degradation, and sustainable development: Evidence from developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    21. Carè, R. & Fatima, R. & Boitan, I.A., 2024. "Central banks and climate risks: Where we are and where we are going?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1200-1229.
    22. Meinerding, Christoph & Poinelli, Andrea & Schüler, Yves, 2023. "Households’ inflation expectations and concern about climate change," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    23. Chen, Chuanqi & Pan, Dongyang & Huang, Zhigang & Bleischwitz, Raimund, 2021. "Engaging central banks in climate change? The mix of monetary and climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    24. Maureen Teresa Odongo & Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Anne Wangari Kamau & Kethi Ngoka Kisingu, 2022. "Climate Change and Inflation in Eastern and Southern Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.

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