IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/ajagec/v72y1990i3p701-708..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Grain Price Expectations of Illinois Farmers and Grain Merchandisers

Author

Listed:
  • James S. Eales
  • Brian K. Engel
  • Robert J. Hauser
  • Sarahelen R. Thompson

Abstract

The study's purpose is to measure the extent to which futures and option prices reflect the subjective price distribution of a subset of market participants, farmers, and grain merchandisers in Illinois. Findings suggest that in most instances the futures price is an appropriate proxy for expected price. However, volatilities implied by option premia usually overestimate the subjective variances of producers and merchandisers. These differences between individual and market expectations of variance are consistent with findings of overconfidence in the psychology literature and should be considered by analysts when making observations about hedging decisions and risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • James S. Eales & Brian K. Engel & Robert J. Hauser & Sarahelen R. Thompson, 1990. "Grain Price Expectations of Illinois Farmers and Grain Merchandisers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 701-708.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:72:y:1990:i:3:p:701-708.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243040
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:72:y:1990:i:3:p:701-708.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.