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A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change

Author

Listed:
  • N. W. Arnell

    (Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading)

  • J. A. Lowe

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • S. Brown

    (University of Southampton
    Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)

  • S. N. Gosling

    (University of Nottingham)

  • P. Gottschalk

    (PIK, Potsdam
    University of Aberdeen)

  • J. Hinkel

    (PIK, Potsdam)

  • B. Lloyd-Hughes

    (Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading)

  • R. J. Nicholls

    (University of Southampton
    Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)

  • T. J. Osborn

    (University of East Anglia)

  • T. M. Osborne

    (Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading)

  • G. A. Rose

    (Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading)

  • P. Smith

    (University of Aberdeen)

  • R. F. Warren

    (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
    University of East Anglia)

Abstract

This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered here—which gives a 50% chance of remaining below a 2 °C temperature rise target—reduces impacts by 20–65% by 2100 relative to a ‘business-as-usual’ pathway which reaches 4 °C, and can delay impacts by several decades. The effects of mitigation policies vary between sectors and regions, and only a few are noticeable by 2030. The impacts avoided by 2100 are more strongly influenced by the date and level at which emissions peak than the rate of decline of emissions, with an earlier and lower emissions peak avoiding more impacts. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided at the global scale is relatively robust despite uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change, but the absolute amount of avoided impacts is considerably more variable and therefore uncertain.

Suggested Citation

  • N. W. Arnell & J. A. Lowe & S. Brown & S. N. Gosling & P. Gottschalk & J. Hinkel & B. Lloyd-Hughes & R. J. Nicholls & T. J. Osborn & T. M. Osborne & G. A. Rose & P. Smith & R. F. Warren, 2013. "A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 512-519, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:5:d:10.1038_nclimate1793
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1793
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sigit Perdana & Rod Tyers, 2020. "Global Climate Change Mitigation: Strategic Incentives," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(3), pages 183-206, May.
    2. Zhang, Xi & Geng, Yong & Shao, Shuai & Wilson, Jeffrey & Song, Xiaoqian & You, Wei, 2020. "China’s non-fossil energy development and its 2030 CO2 reduction targets: The role of urbanization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    3. María-José Foncubierta-Rodríguez & Rafael Ravina-Ripoll & José Antonio López-Sánchez, 2021. "Generational Portrait of Spanish Society in the Face of Climate Change. A Question to Consider for the Green Economy under the Well-Being Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    4. Nigel W. Arnell, 2016. "The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 343-352, February.
    5. Nigel Arnell & Ben Lloyd-Hughes, 2014. "The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 127-140, January.
    6. CISCAR MARTINEZ Juan Carlos & FEYEN Luc & SORIA RAMIREZ Antonio & LAVALLE Carlo & PERRY Miles & RAES Frank & NEMRY Francoise & DEMIREL Hande & RÓZSAI Máté & DOSIO Alessandro & DONATELLI Marcello & SRI, 2014. "Climate Impacts in Europe. The JRC PESETA II Project," JRC Research Reports JRC87011, Joint Research Centre.
      • Ciscar, Juan-Carlos & Feyen, Luc & Soria, Antonio & Lavalle, Carlo & Raes, Frank & Perry, Miles & Nemry, Françoise & Demirel, Hande & Rozsai, Máté & Dosio, Alessandro & Donatelli, Marcello & Srivastav, 2014. "Climate Impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II Project," MPRA Paper 55725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jianzhuang Pang & Huilan Zhang, 2023. "Global map of a comprehensive drought/flood index and analysis of controlling environmental factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 267-293, March.
    8. Nigel Arnell, 2016. "The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 343-352, February.
    9. Timothy Osborn & Craig Wallace & Ian Harris & Thomas Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    10. N. Arnell & S. Brown & S. Gosling & P. Gottschalk & J. Hinkel & C. Huntingford & B. Lloyd-Hughes & J. Lowe & R. Nicholls & T. Osborn & T. Osborne & G. Rose & P. Smith & T. Wheeler & P. Zelazowski, 2016. "The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 457-474, February.
    11. Timothy J. Osborn & Craig J. Wallace & Ian C. Harris & Thomas M. Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    12. H. Huebener & M. Sanderson & I. Höschel & J. Körper & T. Johns & J.-F. Royer & E. Roeckner & E. Manzini & J.-L. Dufresne & O. Otterå & J. Tjiputra & D. Salas y Melia & M. Giorgetta & S. Denvil & P. Fo, 2013. "Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 389-403, September.
    13. Wang, Zhaohua & Zhang, Hongzhi & Li, Hao & Wang, Bo & Cui, Qi & Zhang, Bin, 2022. "Economic impact and energy transformation of different effort-sharing schemes to pursue 2 ℃ warming limit in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    14. József Kádár & Omad (Hassan) Abdelshakour & Tali Zohar & Tareq Abu Hamed, 2024. "Feasibility Assessment of a Small-Scale Agrivoltaics-Based Desalination Plant with Flywheel Energy Storage—Case Study: Namibia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Detlef Vuuren & Timothy Carter, 2014. "Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 415-429, February.
    16. R. Warren & J. Lowe & N. Arnell & C. Hope & P. Berry & S. Brown & A. Gambhir & S. Gosling & R. Nicholls & J. O’Hanley & T. Osborn & T. Osborne & J. Price & S. Raper & G. Rose & J. Vanderwal, 2013. "The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 55-70, September.
    17. Ayami Hayashi & Keigo Akimoto & Takashi Homma & Kenichi Wada & Toshimasa Tomoda, 2014. "Change in the Annual Water Withdrawal-to-Availability Ratio and Its Major Causes: An Evaluation for Asian River Basins Under Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change Scenarios," Energy and Environment Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 4(2), pages 1-34, June.
    18. Brian C. O’Neill & Andrew Gettelman, 2018. "An introduction to the special issue on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 277-285, February.
    19. Stone, Susan & Flaig, Dorothee & van Tongeren, Frank, 2014. "Modelling Local Content Requirements: Quantitative Restrictions in a CGE Model," Conference papers 332552, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Simon Gosling & Nigel Arnell, 2016. "A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 371-385, February.

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