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Precautionary Savings and Income Uncertainty: Evidence from Japanese Micro Data

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  • Murata, Keiko

    (Econ and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office of Japan)

Abstract

This paper tests the existence of precautionary savings using subjective or self-reported measures of income uncertainty drawn from Japanese household data (primarily from those in their 30s). Two subjective measures are tested: one concerning labor earnings and the other concerning public pension benefits. The results show that, among either nuclear family households or households that do not receive income transfers from parents, there exist precautionary savings due to uncertainty concerning public pension benefits. As the respondents are primarily in their 30s, we find that those households start to save based on precautionary motives early in their lives. The finding that the effect of public pension uncertainty concerning savings is manifested in nuclear family households suggests that intergenerational risk-sharing reduces risk and therefore wealth accumulation. Precautionary savings are found to take the form of relatively low-risk assets; no precautionary savings are found in securities. No evidence has been found for precautionary savings being motivated by uncertainty over labor earnings when economic prospects are utilized as the measure of labor income uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Murata, Keiko, 2003. "Precautionary Savings and Income Uncertainty: Evidence from Japanese Micro Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 21-52, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:21:y:2003:i:3:p:21-52
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    Cited by:

    1. Giavazzi, Francesco & McMahon, Michael, 2008. "Policy Uncertainty and Precautionary Savings," CEPR Discussion Papers 6766, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Bartzsch Nikolaus, 2008. "Precautionary Saving and Income Uncertainty in Germany – New Evidence from Microdata," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(1), pages 5-24, February.
    3. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2010. "Rebalancing in Japan: The Role of Private Consumption," IMF Working Papers 2010/293, International Monetary Fund.
    4. repec:cbh:journl:v:14:y:2015:i:1:p:79-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Iwaisako, Tokuo & 祝迫, 得夫 & Ono, Arito & Saito, Amane & Tokuda, Hidenobu, 2016. "Impact of population aging on household savings and portfolio choice in Japan," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 61, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Lothar Essig, 2005. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions: Do subjective saving motive measures work?," MEA discussion paper series 05084, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    7. Wako Watanabe, 2005. "Income Uncertainty and Self-Reported Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from the Japanese Micro Data," ISER Discussion Paper 0636, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    8. Latsos, Sophia, 2019. "The low interest policy and the household saving behavior in Japan," Working Papers 159, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Japan: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2010/212, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Essig, Lothar, 2005. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions : do subjective saving motives measures work?," Papers 05-22, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    11. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2004. "The Stagnation of Household Consumption in Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 1133, CESifo.
    12. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2006. "The causes of Japan's `lost decade': The role of household consumption," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 378-400, December.
    13. Yu-Fu Chen & Hassan Molana, 2022. "Solving the Life-Cycle Model with Labour Income Uncertainty: Some Implications of Income Volatility for Consumption Plan," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 303, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    14. Bessho, Shun-ichiro & Tobita, Eiko, 2008. "Unemployment risk and buffer-stock saving: An empirical investigation in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 303-325, August.
    15. Essig, Lothar, 2004. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions: Do subjective saving motives measures work?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-22, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    16. Saito, Makoto & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2003. "Precautionary Motives versus Waiting Options: Evidence from Aggregate Household Saving in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 1-20, October.
    17. Masahiro Hori & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2006. "Did Japanese consumers become more prudent during 1998-1999? Evidence from household-level data," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 197-209.
    18. Nakajima, Jouchi, 2020. "The role of household debt heterogeneity on consumption: Evidence from Japanese household data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 186-197.
    19. Zsuzsa Kékesi & Balázs Kóczián & Balázs Sisak, 2015. "The role of household portfolio restructuring in financing of the general government," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 14(1), pages 79-110.
    20. Latsos Sophia & Schnabl Gunther, 2021. "Determinants of Japanese Household Saving Behavior in the Low-Interest Rate Environment," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 81-99, December.
    21. Johannes Geyer, 2011. "The Effect of Health and Employment Risks on Precautionary Savings," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 408, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    22. Yuichiro Ito & Yasutaka Takizuka & Shigeaki Fujiwara, 2017. "Portfolio Selection by Households: An Empirical Analysis Using Dynamic Panel Data Models," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    23. Wataru Kureishi & Midori Wakabayashi, 2013. "What motivates single women to save? the case of Japan," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 681-704, December.
    24. Wataru Suzuki & Yanfei Zhou, 2013. "Does Pessimism Over Pension Prospect Spur Excess Saving? - Evidence Concerning Close-to-Retirement Households in Japan," Gakushuin Economic Papers, Gakushuin University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 227-244.
    25. Willem Vanlaer & Samantha Bielen & Wim Marneffe, 2020. "Consumer Confidence and Household Saving Behaviors: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 677-721, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

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