IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v94y2017icp305-320.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Grain Price and Volatility Transmission from International to Domestic Markets in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ceballos, Francisco
  • Hernandez, Manuel A.
  • Minot, Nicholas
  • Robles, Miguel

Abstract

Understanding the sources of domestic food price volatility in developing countries and the extent to which it is transmitted from international to domestic markets is critical to help design better global, regional, and domestic policies to cope with excessive food price volatility and to protect the most vulnerable groups. This paper examines short-term price and volatility transmission from major grain commodities to 41 domestic food products across 27 countries in Africa, Latin America, and South Asia. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to model the dynamics of monthly price return volatility in international and domestic markets. The period of analysis is 2000 through 2013. In terms of price transmission, we only observe significant interactions from international to domestic markets in few cases. To calculate volatility spillovers, we simulate a shock equivalent to a 1% increase in the conditional volatility of price returns in the international market and evaluate its effect on the conditional volatility of price returns in the domestic market. The transmission of volatility is statistically significant in just one-quarter of the maize markets tested, more than half of rice markets tested, and all wheat markets tested. Volatility transmission seems to be more common when trade (imports or exports) are large relatively to domestic requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceballos, Francisco & Hernandez, Manuel A. & Minot, Nicholas & Robles, Miguel, 2017. "Grain Price and Volatility Transmission from International to Domestic Markets in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 305-320.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:94:y:2017:i:c:p:305-320
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.01.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X17300293
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.01.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cornelis Gardebroek & Manuel A. Hernandez & Miguel Robles, 2016. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 141-155, March.
    2. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & José Gil, 2011. "Price volatility in ethanol markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 38(2), pages 259-280, June.
    3. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    4. Minot, Nicholas, 2014. "Food price volatility in sub-Saharan Africa: Has it really increased?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    5. Minot, Nicholas, 2011. "Transmission of world food price changes to markets in Sub-Saharan Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1059, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Asfaw Negassa & Robert J. Myers, 2007. "Estimating Policy Effects on Spatial Market Efficiency: An Extension to the Parity Bounds Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(2), pages 338-352.
    7. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.
    8. Zhao, Jieyuan & Goodwin, Barry K., 2011. "Volatility Spillovers in Agricultural Commodity Markets: An Application Involving Implied Volatilities from Options Markets," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103636, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2013. "Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 119-129.
    10. Bob Baulch, 1997. "Transfer Costs, Spatial Arbitrage, and Testing for Food Market Integration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 477-487.
    11. Tadesse, Getaw & Shively, Gerald, 2009. "AJAE appendix for Food aid, food prices and producer disincentives in Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1-47, April.
    12. Jochen Meyer & Stephan von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 581-611, November.
    13. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-1189, December.
    14. Getaw Tadesse & Gerald Shively, 2009. "Food Aid, Food Prices, and Producer Disincentives in Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 942-955.
    15. Christine Moser & Christopher Barrett & Bart Minten, 2009. "Spatial integration at multiple scales: rice markets in Madagascar," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 281-294, May.
    16. repec:fpr:export:1344 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Shahidur Rashid, 2004. "Spatial Integration of Maize Markets in Post-liberalised Uganda," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 13(1), pages 102-133, March.
    18. Seo, Byeongseon, 2007. "Asymptotic distribution of the cointegrating vector estimator in error correction models with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 68-111, March.
    19. Mundlak, Yair & Larson, Donald F, 1992. "On the Transmission of World Agricultural Prices," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 399-422, September.
    20. Nelissa Jamora & Stephan Cramon-Taubadel, 2016. "Transaction Cost Thresholds in International Rice Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 292-307, June.
    21. Chunrong Ai & Arjun Chatrath & Frank Song, 2006. "On the Comovement of Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(3), pages 574-588.
    22. Abdulai, Awudu, 2000. "Spatial price transmission and asymmetry in the Ghanaian maize market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 327-349, December.
    23. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    24. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6800 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    26. Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K & Varangis, Panayotis, 1996. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices Reconsidered," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 275-291, May-June.
    27. Luis Miguel Robles & Maximo Torero, 2010. "Understanding the Impact of High Food Prices in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 117-164, January.
    28. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Volatility transmission in agricultural futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 541-546.
    29. Díaz-Bonilla, Eugenio, 2016. "Volatile volatility: Conceptual and measurement issues related to price trends and volatility:," IFPRI discussion papers 1505, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    30. Van Campenhout, Bjorn, 2007. "Modelling trends in food market integration: Method and an application to Tanzanian maize markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 112-127, February.
    31. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
    32. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    33. Baquedano, Felix G. & Liefert, William M., 2014. "Market integration and price transmission in consumer markets of developing countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-114.
    34. Sol García-Germán & Isabel Bardají & Alberto Garrido, 2016. "Evaluating price transmission between global agricultural markets and consumer food price indices in the European Union," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(1), pages 59-70, January.
    35. Minot, Nicholas, 2010. "Transmission of World Food Price Changes to African Markets and its Effect on Household Welfare," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 58563, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cornelis Gardebroek & Manuel A. Hernandez & Miguel Robles, 2016. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 141-155, March.
    2. repec:ags:ijag24:346854 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kabbiri, Ronald & Dora, Manoj & Elepu, Gabriel & Gellynck, Xavier, 2016. "A Global Perspective of Food Market Integration: A Review," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 55(1-2), May.
    4. Manuel A. Hernandez & Shahidur Rashid & Solomon Lemma & Tadesse Kuma, 2017. "Market Institutions and Price Relationships: The Case of Coffee in the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(3), pages 683-704.
    5. Guillaume Pierre & Jonathan Kaminski, 2019. "Cross country maize market linkages in Africa: integration and price transmission across local and global markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 79-90, January.
    6. Zheng, Xuyun & Pan, Zheng, 2022. "Responding to import surges: Price transmission from international to local soybean markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 584-597.
    7. repec:ags:aaea22:335869 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2020. "Dynamic Transmissions and Volatility Spillovers between Global Price and U.S. Producer Price in Agricultural Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, April.
    9. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    10. Fernandez-Diaz, Jose M. & Morley, Bruce, 2019. "Interdependence among agricultural commodity markets, macroeconomic factors, crude oil and commodity index," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 174-194.
    11. Von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2017. "The analysis of market integration and price transmission – results and implications in an African context," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 56(2), March.
    12. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2022. "Potential factors in determining cross-border price spillovers in the pork sector: Evidence from net pork-importing countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Fernandez-Diaz, Jose M. & Morley, Bruce, 2019. "Interdependence among agricultural commodity markets, macroeconomic factors, crude oil and commodity index," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 174-194.
    14. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Deotti, Laura & Sassi, Maria, 2016. "Sources of food price volatility and child malnutrition in Niger and Malawi," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 20-30.
    15. Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2017. "The analysis of market integration and price transmission – results and implications in an African context," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 83-96, April.
    16. repec:aer:wpaper:294 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Badolo, Félix, 2012. "Chocs de prix internationaux et transmission : cas du marché du riz au Burkina Faso," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(3), pages 317-346, Septembre.
    18. Kelbore, Zerihun Getachew, 2013. "Transmission of World Food Prices to Domestic Market: The Ethiopian Case," MPRA Paper 49712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Félix Badolo, 2011. "Transmission des chocs de prix internationaux : le cas du riz au Burkina Faso," Working Papers halshs-00627189, HAL.
    20. Abunyuwah, Isaac, 2013. "Implications of conceptual and data complexities on time-series econometric applications in market integration analysis," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 115(1), pages 1-7, February.
    21. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The relationship between fuel and food prices: Methods, outcomes, and lessons for commodity price risk management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    22. Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Do, Hung Xuan & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf, 2016. "Fossil fuel price uncertainty and feedstock edible oil prices: Evidence from MGARCH-M and VIRF analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 16-27.
    23. repec:fpr:export:1344 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2020. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 242248, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    volatility transmission; price transmission; grain commodity prices; domestic markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:94:y:2017:i:c:p:305-320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.