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Models-as-usual for unusual risks? On the value of catastrophic climate change

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  • Bommier, Antoine
  • Lanz, Bruno
  • Zuber, Stéphane

Abstract

We study the role of intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth, stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse. We contrast two polar instances of risk-sensitive preferences: the traditional “discounted utility” model, which imposes a positive rate of pure time preference and risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility, and multiplicatively separable preferences, which display risk aversion in that dimension but no pure time preferences. We show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same economy when there is no collapse risk associated with pollution. Once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate depends on the pollution stock, multiplicatively separable preferences are associated with a much higher value of catastrophic risk reduction, and a more stringent policy response. A relatively high discount rate may thus be compatible with large emissions abatement in the face of a low probability large impact event, reflecting preferences for catastrophic risk reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Bommier, Antoine & Lanz, Bruno & Zuber, Stéphane, 2015. "Models-as-usual for unusual risks? On the value of catastrophic climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:74:y:2015:i:c:p:1-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2015.07.003
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    2. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Zuber, 2020. "Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 873-890, November.
    3. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Stéphane Zuber & Marc Fleurbaey, 2017. "Intergenerational equity under catastrophic climate change," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17040, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    4. Can Askan Mavi, 2016. "Uncertain Catastrophic Events : Another Source of Environmental Traps ?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01275174, HAL.
    5. Adler, Matthew D. & Treich, Nicolas, 2017. "Utilitarianism, prioritarianism, and intergenerational equity: A cake eating model," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 94-102.
    6. Can Askan Mavi, 2017. "What Can Abrupt Events Tell Us About Sustainability ?," Working Papers hal-01628682, HAL.
    7. Mavi, Can Askan, 2019. "What can catastrophic events tell us about sustainability?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 70-83.
    8. Lucas Bretschger & Alexandra Vinogradova, 2014. "Growth and Mitigation Policies with Uncertain Climate Damage," CEEES Paper Series CE3S-02/14, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    9. Karel Doubravský & Alena Kocmanová & Mirko Dohnal, 2018. "Analysis of Sustainability Decision Trees Generated by Qualitative Models Based on Equationless Heuristics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, July.
    10. Mavi, Can Askan, 2024. "Creative destruction vs destructive destruction: A Schumpeterian approach for adaptation and mitigation," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 36-53.
    11. Méjean, Aurélie & Pottier, Antonin & Zuber, Stéphane & Fleurbaey, Marc, 2023. "Opposite ethical views converge under the threat of catastrophic climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    12. Can Askan Mavi, 2019. "Can harmful events be another source of environmental traps?," CEE-M Working Papers halshs-02141789, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    13. Can Askan Mavi, 2017. "Can a hazardous event be another source of poverty traps ?," Working Papers hal-01522087, HAL.
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    15. Fillon, Romain & Guivarch, Céline & Taconet, Nicolas, 2023. "Optimal climate policy under tipping risk and temporal risk aversion," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental policy; Climate change; Catastrophic risks; Risk aversion; Risk-sensitive preferences; Discounting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D99 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Other
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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