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Near-real time analysis of war and economic activity during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

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  • Zhukov, Yuri M.

Abstract

This paper introduces near-real time data on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and uses these data to investigate the short-term impact of occupation and violence on local economic activity. The data project – VIINA (Violent Incident Information from News Articles) – parses news reports from Ukrainian and Russian media, georeferences them, and classifies them into standard event categories (e.g. artillery shelling) through machine learning. As we show, VIINA is more geographically comprehensive and more thoroughly documented than other open-source event databases on Ukraine, and is the only such effort to track territorial control. We illustrate applications for research on political economy, by utilizing remote sensing data on luminosity and vegetation as proxies for urban economic activity and agricultural land use. We find that economic activity declined most in urban areas that neither side fully controlled, and in places most exposed to artillery shelling. Areas under Russian occupation, however, were more insulated from these negative shocks. Although not causal, these findings are in line with the view that war brings not only economic devastation, but also vast geographic inequalities that are almost immediately observable from space.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhukov, Yuri M., 2023. "Near-real time analysis of war and economic activity during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1232-1243.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:51:y:2023:i:4:p:1232-1243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2023.06.003
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    2. António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "Echoes of Instability: How Geopolitical Risks Shape Government Debt Holdings," CESifo Working Paper Series 11235, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data; Political violence; Luminosity; Vegetation; Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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