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Looking behind mortgage delinquencies

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  • Mocetti, Sauro
  • Viviano, Eliana

Abstract

Delinquency rates for mortgages originated before and after the financial crisis are examined using a novel and large panel obtained by merging data from tax records and credit registers. First, we estimate the selection into the mortgage market using an exogenous index of local credit supply as exclusion restriction. Second, controlling for selection we estimate the impact of income shocks on the delinquency rate. We find that since 2008 the selection process has led to the halving of the delinquency rate. Conditional on the creation of a new mortgage, job losses nearly double the delinquency risk; estimates uncorrected for selection are severely downward biased.

Suggested Citation

  • Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:53-63
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.11.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Slaymaker, Rachel & O'Toole, Conor & McQuinn, Kieran & Fahy, Mike, 2018. "Monetary policy normalisation and mortgage arrears in a recovering economy: The case of the Irish residential market," Papers WP613, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Kelly, Jane & Mazza, Elena, 2019. "Mortgage servicing burdens and LTI caps," Financial Stability Notes 13/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Okechukwu D. Anyamele, 2018. "Racial Ethnic differences in Household Loan Delinquency Rate in recent financial crisis: Evidence from 2007 and 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 1-4.
    4. Katharina Allinger & Elisabeth Beckmann, 2021. "Use of loan moratoria by CESEE households: who are the users and how vulnerable are they?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/21, pages 7-33.
    5. Merike Kukk, 2023. "What are the triggers for arrears on debt over a business cycle? Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2811-2833, July.
    6. Merike Kukk, 2019. "Debt repayment problems: short-term and long-term implications for spending," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 715-740, June.
    7. O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Repayment capacity, debt service ratios and mortgage default: An exploration in crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Hu, Mingzhi & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2024. "Financial literacy and mortgage stress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    9. Kristopher Gerardi & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Lee E. Ohanian & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1098-1131.
    10. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019, January-A.
    11. Damian S. Damianov & Xiangdong Wang & Cheng Yan, 2021. "Google Search Queries, Foreclosures, and House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 177-209, August.
    12. Wadud, Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Tang, Xueli, 2020. "Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. Sabrina Aufiero & Preben Forer & Pierpaolo Vivo & Fabio Caccioli & Silvia Bartolucci, 2024. "Phase transitions in debt recycling," Papers 2405.19104, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage delinquency; Income; Selection; Lending policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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