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On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Nguyen, Anh D.M.
  • Dridi, Jemma
  • Unsal, Filiz D.
  • Williams, Oral H.

Abstract

The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA's rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyse inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to the exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. This implies a greater role of monetary policy as some SSA countries modernize their monetary policy frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Dridi, Jemma & Unsal, Filiz D. & Williams, Oral H., 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 71-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:151:y:2017:i:c:p:71-84
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2017.04.002
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    9. Ojonugwa Usman & Muhammad Sani Musa, 2018. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Price Inflation in Nigeria: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 4(1), pages 60-67, March.
    10. Achua, Joseph Kwaghkor & Yusuf, Mariam & Wakdok, Samuel Stephen, 2022. "Nonlinear public debt and resource rent nexus in highly indebted resource-rich sub-Saharan economies: Evidence from Nigeria," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2021. "Global convergence of inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
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    13. Ashford C. Chea, 2018. "The 2014-16 Global Commodity Price Declines and Sub-Saharan Africa¡¯s Real Economy: Analysis for Sustainable Development," Business and Management Research, Business and Management Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(1), pages 27-34, March.
    14. Alexandre Henry, 2019. "Monetary Union, Competitiveness and Raw Commodity Dependence: Insights from Africa," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(2), pages 285-301, June.
    15. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
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    17. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert, 2017. "CPI and inflation in Kenya. Structural breaks, non-linearities and dependence," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 72-79.
    18. Dridi, Jemma & Nguyen, Anh D. M., 2017. "Inflation Convergence In East African Countries," MPRA Paper 80393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mark Edem Kunawotor & Godfred Alufar Bokpin & Patrick O. Asuming & Kofi A. Amoateng, 2022. "The Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy in Africa," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 22(2), pages 130-148, April.
    20. Ntita Ntita, Jean & Kazadi Ntita, François & Ntanga Ntita, Jean de Dieu, 2017. "Determinants De L'Inflation Dans Les Pays De La Communaute Economique Et Monetaire De L'Afrique Centrale, (Cemac) [Determinants Of Inflation In Central African Economic And Monetary Community (Caem," MPRA Paper 92902, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2019.
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    23. Sephton, Peter S., 2022. "Revisiting the inflation-hedging properties of precious metals in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    24. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2023. "Understanding the global drivers of inflation: How important are oil prices?11We would like to thank Xuguang Simon Sheng, Guest Editor, and two anonymous reviewers for their detailed feedback. We also," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Global VAR (GVAR); Monetary policy; Spillovers; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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