IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v60y2018icp115-126.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time varying volatility indices and their determinants: Evidence from developed and emerging stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Prasad, Nalin
  • Grant, Andrew
  • Kim, Suk-Joong

Abstract

This paper investigates spillovers across 16 major stock markets utilizing the high frequency data based Realized volatility estimator (Andersen et al., 2003) and the spillover index methodology put forward by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). We find that spillovers increased dramatically during the 2008 global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis that followed as expected. Differences arise when comparing directional spillovers for individual stock markets. We find that the larger stock markets from the advanced western economies, particularly the US, dominate volatility transmission to other markets. Emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil are still relatively isolated, though their contributions to global volatility spillovers have increased considerably after 2006. We also investigate potential determinants of net spillovers between markets and find that the level of volatility in one market relative to that in other markets is the most important factor in increasing spillovers transmitted. Other important determinants include relative bond yield returns, relative stock market turnover, relative FX market volatility and macroeconomic news indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Prasad, Nalin & Grant, Andrew & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2018. "Time varying volatility indices and their determinants: Evidence from developed and emerging stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 115-126.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:60:y:2018:i:c:p:115-126
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2018.09.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521918303454
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.09.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
    2. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
    3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2005. "Correcting the Errors: Volatility Forecast Evaluation Using High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 279-296, January.
    4. Yilmaz, Kamil, 2010. "Return and volatility spillovers among the East Asian equity markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 304-313, June.
    5. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2014. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt turmoil," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 134-153.
    6. Dekker, Arie & Sen, Kunal & Young, Martin R., 2001. "Equity market linkages in the Asia Pacific region: A comparison of the orthogonalised and generalised VAR approaches," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-33.
    7. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-538.
    8. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    9. Bubák, Vít & Kocenda, Evzen & Zikes, Filip, 2011. "Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2829-2841, November.
    10. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    12. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    13. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    14. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2011. "Equity Market Spillovers in the Americas," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 7, pages 199-214, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. McMillan, David G. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Return and volatility spillovers in three euro exchange rates," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 79-93, March.
    16. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    17. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Exchange return co-movements and volatility spillovers before and after the introduction of euro," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1091-1109.
    18. Edwards, Sebastian & Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 505-532, December.
    19. Jiang, George J. & Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Volatility spillovers and the effect of news announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2260-2273.
    20. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:080 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Zhou, Xiangyi & Zhang, Weijin & Zhang, Jie, 2012. "Volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 247-270.
    22. Yu, Ip-Wing & Fung, Kang-Por & Tam, Chi-Sang, 2010. "Assessing financial market integration in Asia - Equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2874-2885, December.
    23. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    24. Dimitrios Louzis, 2015. "Measuring spillover effects in Euro area financial markets: a disaggregate approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1367-1400, December.
    25. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    26. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    27. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    28. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2009. "Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-45.
    29. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2003. "Interest-Rate Volatility in Emerging Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 328-348, May.
    30. Cai, Yijie & Chou, Ray Yeutien & Li, Dan, 2009. "Explaining international stock correlations with CPI fluctuations and market volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2026-2035, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Singh, Amanjot, 2021. "Investigating the dynamic relationship between litigation funding, gold, bitcoin and the stock market: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 45-57.
    2. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun & Liu, Tangyong & Zhou, Zicheng, 2022. "Dynamic volatility connectedness between industrial metal markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Asadi, Mehrad & Roudari, Soheil & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2023. "Scrutinizing commodity markets by quantile spillovers: A case study of the Australian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Yuan, Ying & Du, Xinyu, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers across global stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from jumps and higher moments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 628(C).
    5. Abdollahi, Hooman & Junttila, Juha-Pekka & Lehkonen, Heikki, 2024. "Clustering asset markets based on volatility connectedness to political news," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Volatility spillovers among Northeast Asia and the US: Evidence from the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 179-193.
    7. Yin, Kedong & Liu, Zhe & Jin, Xue, 2020. "Interindustry volatility spillover effects in China’s stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    8. Najaf Iqbal & Elie Bouri & Guangrui Liu & Ashish Kumar, 2024. "Volatility spillovers during normal and high volatility states and their driving factors: A cross‐country and cross‐asset analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 975-995, January.
    9. Panda, Ajaya Kumar & Panda, Pradiptarathi & Nanda, Swagatika & Parad, Atul, 2021. "Information bias and its spillover effect on return volatility: A study on stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Fu Qiao & Yan Yan, 2020. "How does stock market reflect the change in economic demand? A study on the industry-specific volatility spillover networks of China's stock market during the outbreak of COVID-19," Papers 2007.07487, arXiv.org.
    11. Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Saqib Farid & Fiza Qureshi & Farhad Taghizadeh‐Hesary, 2023. "Global factors and the transmission between United States and emerging stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3488-3510, October.
    12. Paolo Massimo Buscema & Francesca Della Torre & Giulia Massini & Guido Ferilli & Pier Luigi Sacco, 2023. "Reconstructing the Emergent Organization of Information Flows in International Stock Markets: A Computational Complex Systems Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 49-89, June.
    13. Saswat Patra & Pradiptarathi Panda, 2021. "Spillovers and financial integration in emerging markets: Analysis of BRICS economies within a VAR‐BEKK framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 493-514, January.
    14. Shi, Yujie, 2022. "What influences stock market co-movements between China and its Asia-Pacific trading partners after the Global Financial Crisis?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Bouri, Elie & Harb, Etienne, 2022. "The size of good and bad volatility shocks does matter for spillovers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Liu, Tangyong & Gong, Xu, 2020. "Analyzing time-varying volatility spillovers between the crude oil markets using a new method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    17. Tingting Lan & Liuguo Shao & Hua Zhang & Caijun Yuan, 2023. "The impact of pandemic on dynamic volatility spillover network of international stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2115-2144, November.
    18. Baker, H. Kent & Kumar, Satish & Goyal, Kirti & Sharma, Anuj, 2021. "International review of financial analysis: A retrospective evaluation between 1992 and 2020," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    2. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol & Kurowski, Łukasz & Smaga, Paweł, 2021. "Two decades of contagion effect on stock markets: Which events are more contagious?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Julián Andrada-Félix & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2018. "Fear connectedness among asset classes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(39), pages 4234-4249, August.
    4. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David, 2017. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on TVP-VAR," MPRA Paper 78282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
    6. Sanjay Sehgal & Wasim Ahmad & Florent Deisting, 2015. "An investigation of price discovery and volatility spillovers in India’s foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(2), pages 261-284, May.
    7. Zheng, Tingguo & Zuo, Haomiao, 2013. "Reexamining the time-varying volatility spillover effects: A Markov switching causality approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 643-662.
    8. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
    9. Antonakakis, N. & Badinger, H., 2016. "Economic growth, volatility, and cross-country spillovers: New evidence for the G7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 352-365.
    10. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Zhao, Longfeng & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, 2018. "Volatility connectedness in the Chinese banking system: Do state-owned commercial banks contribute more?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 205-230.
    11. repec:wyi:journl:002202 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2017. "Asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 39-56.
    13. Fiona Tregenna & Kabeya C. Mulamba, 2019. "Spatial dependence of per capita property tax income in South Africa," Working Papers 202, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    14. Yusaku Nishimura & Yoshiro Tsutsui & Kenjiro Hirayama, 2017. "Do International Investors Cause Stock Market Comovements? Comparing Responses of Cross-Listed Stocks between Accessible and Inaccessible Markets," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-01, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    15. Zhou, Xiangyi & Zhang, Weijin & Zhang, Jie, 2012. "Volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 247-270.
    16. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2015. "Business cycle and financial cycle spillovers in the G7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 154-162.
    17. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Max Breitenlechner & Johann Scharler, 2014. "How Strongly are Business Cycles and Financial Cycles Linked in the G7 Countries?," Working Papers 2014-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    18. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2015. "How strong is the linkage between tourism and economic growth in Europe?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 142-155.
    19. Nishimura, Yusaku & Sun, Bianxia, 2018. "The intraday volatility spillover index approach and an application in the Brexit vote," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 241-253.
    20. N. Antonakakis & H. Badinger, 2014. "International business cycle spillovers since the 1870s," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(30), pages 3682-3694, October.
    21. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market spillovers; Realized volatility; Spillover index; VAR; Volatility transmission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:60:y:2018:i:c:p:115-126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.