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An evaluation of the impact of mitigation policies on health and the economy by managing social distancing during outbreaks

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  • Lopolito, Antonio
  • Caferra, Rocco
  • Nigri, Andrea
  • Morone, Piergiuseppe

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated various unavoidable social restrictions, leading to questions about the effectiveness of public emergency interventions and their impact economic growth. Block et al. (2020) conducted a notably study using an agent-based model to evaluate policies for reducing contact and demonstrated how choices in contact behavior can influence the rate and spread of the virus. However, their approach did not consider the economic consequences of these social restrictions. In response, we propose a set of strategies for governments to plan and evaluate policies during emergencies, aiming to contain infections while minimizing negative economic consequences. Our results indicate that there is no trade-off between containment strategies and economic output loss, making containment measures necessary policy instruments. However, potential trade-offs do emerge when selecting the most effective strategy. In this context, we propose and evaluate various policy alternatives to extreme "social distancing" measures, which can partially restore essential social interactions while preventing economic disasters induced by productivity losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Lopolito, Antonio & Caferra, Rocco & Nigri, Andrea & Morone, Piergiuseppe, 2024. "An evaluation of the impact of mitigation policies on health and the economy by managing social distancing during outbreaks," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:epplan:v:103:y:2024:i:c:s0149718924000077
    DOI: 10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2024.102406
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