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The signaling effects of central bank tone

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  • Hubert, Paul
  • Labondance, Fabien

Abstract

Does policymakers’ choice of words matter? We assess empirically whether the tone of FOMC statements contains useful information for financial market participants and explore the nature of the information conveyed. We quantify central bank tone using computational linguistics. We find that the tone of FOMC statements explains monetary surprises beyond FOMC information released on policy announcement days such as policymakers’ forecasts and votes. We also find that the FOMC tone matters more around monetary cycle turning points. We show that the tone of policy statements also helps predict future policy decisions. Our findings suggest that the central bank tone may be one of the vehicles allowing for some information transfer to the public.

Suggested Citation

  • Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121000374
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103684
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    6. Michael Ehrmann & Paul Hubert, 2022. "Information Acquisition ahead of Monetary Policy Announcements," Working papers 897, Banque de France.
    7. Rayane Hanifi & Klodiana Istrefi & Adrian Penalver, 2022. "Central Bank Communication of Uncertainty," Working papers 898, Banque de France.
    8. Baranowski, Pawel & Bennani, Hamza & Doryń, Wirginia, 2023. "Stock price reaction to ECB communication: Introductory Statements vs. Questions & Answers," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Parle, Conor, 2022. "The financial market impact of ECB monetary policy press conferences — A text based approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Haavio, Markus & Heikkinen, Joni & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Paloviita, Maritta & Vänni, Ilona, 2024. "Reading between the lines: Uncovering asymmetry in the central bank loss function," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2024, Bank of Finland.
    11. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Tsouknidis, Dimitris & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Can the tone of central bankers’ speeches discourage potential bank borrowers in the Eurozone?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Donato Masciandaro & Oana Peia & Davide Romelli, 2024. "Central bank communication and social media: From silence to Twitter," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 365-388, April.
    14. Szyszko, Magdalena & Rutkowska, Aleksandra & Kliber, Agata, 2022. "Do words affect expectations? The effect of central banks communication on consumer inflation expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 221-229.
    15. Magdalena Szyszko & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2022. "Do words transform into actions? The consistency of central banks’ communications and decisions," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 31-49, March.
    16. Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2023. "ECB monetary policy communication: does it move euro area yields?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 29, Bank of Lithuania.
    17. Davide Romelli & Hamza Bennani, 2021. "Disagreement inside the FOMC: New Insights from Tone Analysis," Trinity Economics Papers tep1021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sentiment; FOMC; Dissent; Interest rate expectations; ECB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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