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What is at stake without high-stakes exams? Students’ evaluation and admission to college at the time of COVID-19

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  • Arenas, Andreu
  • Calsamiglia, Caterina
  • Loviglio, Annalisa

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 inhibited face-to-face education and constrained exam taking. In many countries worldwide, high-stakes exams happening at the end of the school year determine college admissions. This paper investigates the impact of using historical data of school and high-stakes exams results to train a model to predict high-stakes exams given the available data in the Spring. The most transparent and accurate model turns out to be a linear regression model with high school GPA as the main predictor. Further analysis of the predictions reflect how high-stakes exams relate to GPA in high school for different subgroups in the population. Predicted scores slightly advantage females and low SES individuals, who perform relatively worse in high-stakes exams than in high school. Our preferred model accounts for about 50% of the out-of-sample variation in the high-stakes exam. On average, the student rank using predicted scores differs from the actual rank by almost 17 percentiles. This suggests that either high-stakes exams capture individual skills that are not measured by high school grades or that high-stakes exams are a noisy measure of the same skill.

Suggested Citation

  • Arenas, Andreu & Calsamiglia, Caterina & Loviglio, Annalisa, 2021. "What is at stake without high-stakes exams? Students’ evaluation and admission to college at the time of COVID-19," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:83:y:2021:i:c:s0272775721000625
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2021.102143
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    Cited by:

    1. Luiz Brotherhood & Bernard Herskovic & Joao Ramos, 2022. "Income-based affirmative action in college admissions," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2022/425, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Arenas, Andreu & Calsamiglia, Caterina, 2022. "Gender Differences in High-Stakes Performance and College Admission Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 15550, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Ilie, S. & Maragkou, K., 2024. "University admissions during a pandemic," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2458, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Luiz Brotherhood & Bernard Herskovic & João Ramos, 2023. "Income-Based Affirmative Action in College Admissions," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(653), pages 1810-1845.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Performance prediction; High-stakes exams; College allocation; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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