IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2019-02-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity of Fiscal Balances to Oil Price Shocks: Short and Long Term Effects in the Context of Oman

Author

Listed:
  • Omer Ali Ibrahim

    (College of Banking and Financial Studies, Oman)

  • Sonal Devesh

    (College of Banking and Financial Studies, Oman)

  • Hisham Mohamed Hassan

    (College of Banking and Financial Studies, Oman)

Abstract

This paper examines the fiscal balances in Oman and their sensitivity to oil price shocks in the short and long term, using annual data for the period 1980 2016, and employing the vector auto regression model. Results of the study indicated that oil prices Granger cause gross domestic product (GDP) growth, capital formation and inflation. Impulse response analysis showed that an innovation in the oil prices and consequent oil revenues have a similar effect on most of the macroeconomic variables in Oman. Most of these variables show an increase in the first four quarters except for government expenditure and inflation. However, in many cases, this increase has quickly shifted to decrease over the successive quarters except for inflation, which showed a steady increase over time. Variance decomposition analysis, on the other hand, indicated that net oil price shock appears to be a key factor contributing to the volatility of GDP growth over time in Oman.

Suggested Citation

  • Omer Ali Ibrahim & Sonal Devesh & Hisham Mohamed Hassan, 2019. "Sensitivity of Fiscal Balances to Oil Price Shocks: Short and Long Term Effects in the Context of Oman," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 146-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2019-02-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/7351/4222
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/7351/4222
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    2. Mr. Rolando Ossowski & Mr. Steven A Barnett & Mr. James Daniel & Mr. Jeffrey M. Davis, 2001. "Stabilization and Savings Funds for Nonrenewable Resources," IMF Occasional Papers 2001/004, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hafer, R. W. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1989. "The sensitivity of VAR forecasts to alternative lag structures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 399-408.
    4. James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Braun, Phillip A. & Mittnik, Stefan, 1993. "Misspecifications in vector autoregressions and their effects on impulse responses and variance decompositions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 319-341, October.
    6. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
    7. Nasser Al-Mawali & Haslifah Mohamad Hasim & Khalil Al-Busaidi, 2016. "Modeling the Impact of the Oil Sector on the Economy of Sultanate of Oman," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 120-127.
    8. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-484, June.
    9. Alban Kitous & Bert Saveyn & Kimon Keramidas & Toon Vandyck & Luis Rey Los Santos & Krzysztof Wojtowicz, 2016. "Impact of low oil prices on oil exporting countries," JRC Research Reports JRC101562, Joint Research Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abubakar, Attahir Babaji & Muhammad, Mansur & Mensah, Samuel, 2023. "Response of fiscal efforts to oil price dynamics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Ebi, Bassey Okon & Aladejare, Samson Adeniyi, 2022. "Oil Price Transmission, Deficit Financing and Capital Formation," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 56(1), pages 123-133.
    3. Bulat Mukhamediyev & Zhansaya Temerbulatova, 2019. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Global Competitiveness of National Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 45-50.
    4. Sugra Humbatova, 2023. "The Impact of Oil Prices on State Budget Income and Expenses: Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 189-212, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1013-1028, November.
    2. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1013-1028, November.
    4. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    5. Jobling, Andrew & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2017. "Price volatility and demand for oil: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 96-113.
    6. Balli, Esra & Nazif Çatık, Abdurrahman & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2021. "Time-varying impact of oil shocks on trade balances: Evidence using the TVP-VAR model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Li, Qiming & Cheng, Ke & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2017. "Response pattern of stock returns to international oil price shocks: From the perspective of China’s oil industrial chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1821-1831.
    8. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
    11. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    12. Mahmood, Haider & Alkhateeb, Tarek Tawfik Yousef & Ahmed, Nawaz, 2017. "Impact of devaluation on Saudi oil exports: The J-Curve analysis," MPRA Paper 109454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2018. "Forecasting oil prices: High-frequency financial data are indeed useful," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 388-402.
    14. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joëts & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," Working Papers hal-04141574, HAL.
    15. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    16. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China's influence over 1996–2011," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 517-525.
    17. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?," MPRA Paper 43777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Sotoudeh, M-Ali & Worthington, Andrew C., 2016. "Estimating the effects of global oil market shocks on Australian merchandise trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-84.
    19. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1302, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Trevor Houser & Shashank Mohan, 2011. "America’s Energy Security Options," Policy Briefs PB11-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Balances; Oil Price Shocks; Oman;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2019-02-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.