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Least Squares Model Averaging

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  • Bruce E. Hansen

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of selection of weights for averaging across least squares estimates obtained from a set of models. Existing model average methods are based on exponential Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) weights. In distinction, this paper proposes selecting the weights by minimizing a Mallows criterion, the latter an estimate of the average squared error from the model average fit. We show that our new Mallows model average (MMA) estimator is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible squared error in a class of discrete model average estimators. In a simulation experiment we show that the MMA estimator compares favorably with those based on AIC and BIC weights. The proof of the main result is an application of the work of Li (1987). Copyright The Econometric Society 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:75:y:2007:i:4:p:1175-1189
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