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Is Asia Decoupling from the United States (Again)?

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  • Sylvain Leduc
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

The recovery from the recent global financial crisis exhibited a decline in the synchronization of Asian output with the rest of the world. However, a simple model based on output gaps demonstrates that the decline in business cycle synchronization during the recovery from the global financial crisis was exceptionally steep by historical standards. We posit two potential reasons for this exceptionally steep decline: First, financial markets during this recovery improved from particularly distressed conditions relative to previous downturns. Second, monetary policy during the recovery from the crisis was constrained in western economies by the zero bound, but less so in Asia. To test these potential explanations, we examine the implications of an increase in corporate bond spreads similar to that which took place during the recent European financial crisis in a 3-region open-economy DSGE model. Our results confirm that global business cycle synchronization is reduced when zero-bound constraints across the world differ. However, we find that the impact of reduced financial contagion actually goes modestly against our predictions.
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  • Sylvain Leduc & Mark M. Spiegel, 2013. "Is Asia Decoupling from the United States (Again)?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 345-369, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:18:y:2013:i:3:p:345-369
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1468-0106.12029
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    Cited by:

    1. Sharada Nia Davidson, 2022. "Regional Integration and Decoupling in the Asia Pacific: A Bayesian Panel VAR Approach," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 773-807, December.
    2. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2018. "Meta‐Analysis of Chinese Business Cycle Correlation," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 385-410, August.
    3. Zihui Ma & Leonard K. Cheng, 2014. "An Optimal Currency Basket to Minimize Output and Inflation Volatility: Theory and an Application to Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 90-111, February.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Kefei You, 2017. "Stock Market Integration in Asia: Global or Regional? Evidence from Industry Level Panel Convergence Tests," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1669, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. M. Ayhan Kose & Prakash Loungani & Marco E. Terrones, 2013. "From the Global to the National Cycle: An Intricate Liaison," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 370-402, August.
    6. Ch. Buelens, 2013. "Decoupled and resilient? The changing role of emerging market economies in an interconnected world," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 23-39, September.
    7. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia's Decoupling: Fact, Fairytale or Forecast?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344, August.
    8. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia’s decoupling: fact, forecast or fiction?," BIS Working Papers 438, Bank for International Settlements.

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