IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/germec/v8y2007i3p309-343.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheets

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger
  • Benedikt Goderis

Abstract

. This paper studies how the exposure of a country's corporate sector to interest rate and exchange rate changes affects the probability of a currency crisis. To analyze this question, we present a model that defines currency crises as situations in which the costs of maintaining a fixed exchange rate exceed the costs of abandonment. The results show that a higher exposure to interest rate changes increases the probability of crisis through an increased need for output loss compensation and an increased efficacy of monetary policy in stimulating output. A higher exposure to exchange rate changes also increases the need for output loss compensation. However, it lowers the efficacy of monetary policy in stimulating output through the adverse balance sheet effects of exchange rate depreciation. As a result, its effect on the probability of crisis is ambiguous.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheets," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 309-343, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i:3:p:309-343
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0475.2007.00410.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0475.2007.00410.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-0475.2007.00410.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    2. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004, September.
    4. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    6. Olivier Jeanne., 1997. "The Persistence of Unemployment Under a Fixed Exchange Rate Peg," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-093, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. Stephen D. Williamson, 1987. "Costly Monitoring, Loan Contracts, and Equilibrium Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(1), pages 135-145.
    8. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
    9. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 883-913.
    10. Sebastian Edwards & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Devaluation Crises and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Postponed Adjustment in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(4), pages 875-903, December.
    11. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    12. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
    13. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    14. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    15. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1997. "Destabilizing effects of exchange-rate escape clauses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 61-77, August.
    16. Olivier Jeanne & Charles Wyplosz, 2003. "The International Lender of Last Resort. How Large Is Large Enough?," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 89-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    18. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April.
    19. Wyplosz, Charles, 1986. "Capital controls and balance of payments crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 167-179, June.
    20. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    21. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 81-92.
    22. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
    23. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Dornbusch, Rudi, 1999. "After Asia: New Directions for the International Financial System," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 289-299, May.
    25. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-166, February.
    26. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    27. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1984. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 208-217, May.
    28. Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2002. "“Original Sin,” Balance Sheet Crises, and the Roles of International Lending," IMF Working Papers 2002/234, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    30. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 71-83, October.
    32. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477, September.
    33. Corsetti, G. & Cavallari, L., 1996. "Policy Making and Speculative Attacks in Models of Exchange Rate Crises: A Synthesis," Papers 752, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    34. repec:bla:jecsur:v:15:y:2001:i:5:p:613-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Willman, Alpo, 1988. "The collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime with sticky wages and imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign bonds," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1817-1838, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger & Benedikt Goderis, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Currency Crises: the Role of Debt, Institutions, and Financial Openness," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 559-575, August.
    2. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Michael Frenkel & Jan Christoph Rülke & Lilli Zimmermann, 2011. "Do Current Account Forecasters Herd? – Evidence from the Euro Area and the G7 Countries," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 11-01, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    4. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2012. "Currency crises and monetary policy: A study on advanced and emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 948-974.
    5. Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2013. "Asset Prices, News Shocks, and the Trade Balance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1211-1251, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i::p:309-343 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    3. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Goderis, B.V.G., 2005. "Currency Crisis, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities," Discussion Paper 2005-113, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    5. Olivier Jeanne, 1996. "Les modèles de crise de change : un essai de synthèse en relation avec la crise du franc de 1992-1993," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 147-162.
    6. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    7. Axel A. Weber, 1998. "Sources of Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    8. Meixing Dai, 2012. "External Constraint and Financial Crises with Balance Sheet Effects," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 567-585, March.
    9. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Goderis, B., 2002. "Financial crises, monetary policy and financial fragility : A second-generation model of currency crises," Other publications TiSEM d2ccad44-44f6-40d8-9be0-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    11. Brana, Sophie & Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592, décembre.
    12. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    13. Delphine Lahet, 2001. "L'occurrence d'une crise financière dans un modèle de troisième génération," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 16(2), pages 179-206.
    14. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    15. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2018. "A model of currency crises with heterogeneous market beliefs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-195.
    16. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    17. Bris, Arturo & Koskinen, Yrjo, 2002. "Corporate leverage and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 275-310, February.
    18. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2015. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 113-180, 30.
    19. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:25:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Jeanne, Olivier, 1999. "Currency Crises: A Perspective on Recent Theoretical Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets: Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    22. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante & Mlinarević, Katarina, 2003. "Determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 83140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2003.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i:3:p:309-343. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.