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COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Gerval, Adam
  • Hansen, James

Abstract

This working paper illuminates the impact that volatility in international commodity prices has on U.S. agricultural product export volumes to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The current Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has created such a period of intense price volatility, offering a unique opportunity for modeling potential effects of a global shock on trade with these nations. By simulating the effects of declining oil prices in 2020 and subsequent years through a shock to gross domestic product (GDP) in oil-dependent nations—i.e., Angola and Nigeria—we can evaluate the impacts of COVID-19 on agricultural trade for key U.S. export commodities to SSA.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerval, Adam & Hansen, James, 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 2022(Administr), May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersaw:329741
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.329741
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