Analyzed historical monthly sales data of a company. Created multiple forecast models for two different products of a particular Wine Estate and recommended the optimum forecasting model to predict monthly sales for the next 12 months along with appropriate lower and upper confidence limits
• The overall comparison of all the time-series forecast models are listed above table in accordance with increasing RMSE against test data or in order of decreasing accuracy.
• Triple exponential smoothing with alpha 0.4, Beta 0.1 and Gamma 0.2 performs to be the best model followed by manual SARIMA model. And lowest is performed by the Naïve model.
• The best of SARIMA, Triple Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average models are plotted above against the test data.
• The SARIMA and Triple Exponential Smoothing are found to be comparable in terms of performance and fitment with the test data.
• The overall comparison of all the time-series forecast models are listed below table 2.12 in accordance with increasing RMSE against test data or in order of decreasing accuracy.
• Triple exponential smoothing with alpha 0.1, Beta 0.2 and Gamma 0.1 performs to be the best model followed by 2 point moving average model. And lowest is performed by the Naïve model.
• The best of SARIMA, Triple Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average models are plotted above against the test data.
• 2 point trailing moving average is found to be having the best fitment against the test data, through with lag of 2 and falling short at times.
• Both SARIMA and Triple Exponential Smoothing are found a bit higher than actuals at any given point in time
• The model forecast sale of 29508 units of sparkling wine in 12 months into future which is an average sale of 2459 units per month.
• The seasonal sale in December 1995 will hit a maximum of 6084 units before it drops to the lowest sale in January 1996 at 1215 units.
• The model forecast sale of 538 units of Rose wine in 12 months into future which is an average sale of 44 units per month.
• The seasonal sale in December 1995 will hit a maximum of 82 units before it drops to the lowest sale in January 1996 at 24 units.