random rough notes

jupyter notebook was a mistake

• Previous Midterm Results (--)
  • % pop vote for incumbent party reps
  • % pop vote for incumbent party senators
  • source: mit
• % popular vote in last pres election (--)
  • source: mit
• Avg national approval rate for current term (++)
  • https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx
• % change in personal income / capita over last term (1930++)
  • https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ALPCPI
• who the incumbent (d/r)

y = % share of pop vote for incumbent in each state? Or whether state votes incumbent??

• Avg Median Income (Delta)
• GDP per capita (Delta)
• Unemployment Rate (Delta)
• % Post-Secondary Education (Abs)
• Avg approval rating
• August Poll aggregation
• State election
• Primary opponents

Each model runs 50 times in parallel for 50 states