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plamentrayanov committed May 6, 2020
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# fitCOVID19_BranchingProcess
The project contains Matlab script files for fitting the parameters of the Branching Process Simulator, available at https://github.com/plamentrayanov/BranchingProcessSimulator .
The project is oriented specifically towards modelling the COVID19 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics. Some of the required parameters in the simulator are virus-specific, defined as hard-coded values from articles on the subject and observed data. Others are country-specific, for which an optimization procedure is implemented. The procedure aims at estimating the point process mass of the BP (i.e. R0(t), a.k.a R(t)) and the Immigration expectation as a smooth function of time. The procedure required subjectively chosen smoothing parameters that restrict the curvature of R0(t) and Im(t).
The project is oriented specifically towards modelling the COVID19 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics. Some of the required parameters in the simulator are virus-specific, defined as hard-coded values from articles on the subject and observed data. Others are country-specific, for which an optimization procedure is implemented. The procedure aims at estimating the point process mass of the BP (i.e. R0(t), a.k.a R(t)) and the Immigration expectation as a smooth function over time. The procedure required subjectively chosen smoothing parameters that restrict the curvature of R0(t) and Im(t).

The project aims to:
1. Provide an epidemics projection based on the stochastic theory of Branching Processes, as an alternative to the classical SIR, SEIR and other deterministic models.
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