How shall we run our portfolio of projects in the context of Coronavirus?

Some provisional ideas follow below, based upon the papers and articles attached. The following are all papers /articles from other sources, as cited within each document.

PORTFOLIO

1. Portfolio needs to track in-house R(eff) (effective Reproduction rate) at the same level as revenue, cost and value
2. Each business decisions can then start to understand each project investment relative to this key new business constraint (trade-offs)
3. Portfolio can be analysed to identify the Production Possibilities Frontier, namely how much client benefit can be acheived for a given level of disease transmission risk (See the Budish paper in this repository)

PROGRAMMES

1. There is likely to be a Business Recovery Programme
2. There is also likely to be a longer term Corona programme.

Depending on the split of tasks in these programmes, core tasks include:

A. Coronavirus regulation and assistance: weekly surveillance of Govt announcements.This could be done by using one of the toolkits in https://github.com/lawrencerowland/Data-Model-for-Project-Frameworks B: Daily surveillance of Coronavirus local data: Do this to xxxx C: Daily surveillance of Coronavirus local and national model forecasts. Do this to xxx

Data sources for these sources: A: https://www.gov.uk/search/news-and-communications?topical_events%5B%5D=coronavirus-covid-19-uk-government-response

PROJECTS

1. Review which projects are still continuing under-lockdown conditions and support
2. Most projects are already halted.
3. First priority is to identify which projects must restart. Answer = not many.
4. Next priority is to identify the resource-hit from starting up Corona-related programmes.
5. Tidily mothball as many projects as possible, so they can be neatly restarted in due course.
6. Supply chain emergency review, along with safety and distancing arrangements for the ongoing projects
7. Larger projects can start to look for 'small-world' team and customer arrangements, to minimise R0 reproduction rate (see Oxford paper)
8. Each project given a 1 page pro-forma logistics review
9. Weekly numbers are now not just schedule, resource and cost, but also density. i.e. what is the density of operations relative to social distance: e.g. 5 teams of 5 per 1000 m2.

SPECIFIC CORONAVIRUS TEAM CONFIGURATIONS A. Alternating Quarantine (AQ) B. Intermittent Quarantine (IQ) C. Half Quarantine (HQ) D. Strict Project segregation (PS)

Details in repository from these papers: Alternate quarantine paper (Alternating quarantine for sustainable mitigation of Covid 19 : 2020 04 by Meidan et al) See P.16 Figure 5 for comparison of what A,B,C are. See the Oxford Small-world paper for a similar approach, which might lead to Option D or similar.

Physical arrangements

1. seating /floors / air-con etc as per https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
2. Where involves construction work, see ....

This is in addition to any health / safety arranged by Company and any test track isolate available from Govt.

This is Work in progress, next items to add:

1. attending to Fat-tail scenarios
2. Being ready for scenario of High-asympt/low IFR as well as scenario of low-prevalance/high IFR
3. medium term employee health issues, post infection
4. understanding super-spread issues (node centrality and betweeness), and more generally, assume heterogenity, multiple regional close down ripple scenarios, and beware mean-field assumptions (or any assumptions around a fixed population).