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Regression using Tree based algorithms : Predict Sales using Light GBM

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LearnX Sales Forecasting LearnX is an online learning platform aimed at professionals and students. LearnX serves as a market place that allows instructors to build online courses on topics of their expertise which is later published after due diligence by the LearnX team. The platform covers a wide variety of topics including Development, Business, Finance & Accounting & Software Marketing and so on

Effective forecasting for course sales gives essential insight into upcoming cash flow meaning business can more accurately plan the budget to pay instructors and other operational costs and invest in the expansion of the business.

Sales data for more than 2 years from 600 courses of LearnX's top domains is available along with information on

Competition in the market for each course Course Type (Course/Program/Degree) Holiday Information for each day User Traffic on Course Page for each day Your task is to predict the course sales for each course in the test set for the next 60 days

Data Dictionary Train (Historical Sales Data) Variable Definition ID : Unique Identifier for a row Day_No : Day Number Course_ID : Unique ID for a course Course_Domain : Course Domain (Development, Finance etc.) Course_Type : Course/Program/Degree Short_Promotion : Whether Short Term Promotion is Live Public_Holiday : Regional/Public Holiday Long_Promotion: Whether Long Term Promotion is Live for the course User_Traffic : Number of customers landing on the course page Competition_Metric : A metric defining the strength of competition Sales (Target) : Total Course Sales

Test (Next 60 Days) This file contains the store and day number for which the participant needs to submit predictions/forecasts

Variable Definition ID : Unique Identifier for a row Day_No :Day Number Course_ID : Unique ID for a course Course_Domain : Course Domain (Development, Finance etc.) Course_Type : Course/Program/Degree Short_Promotion : Whether Short Term Promotion is Live Public_Holiday : Regional/Public Holiday Long_Promotion : Whether Long Term Promotion is Live for the course Competition_Metric : A metric defining the strength of competition

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