This work analyses the relationship between China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the growth and debt distress in recipient countries using probit regression. The analysis is done on 120 BRI recipient countries from 1970 to 2020.

For the data on arrears and debt, I use the arrears on long-term debt outstanding from official and private creditors, which are provided by the World Bank’s International Debt Statistic database. The data on SBA/EFF programs and Paris Club debt restructurings or reliefs are obtained from the IMF Financial Data Query Tool and the Paris Club’s website, respectively.

This paper has shown that more than half of the BRI countries show higher vulnerability to debt due to higher debt burdensfrom BRI, out of which at least 12 countries show risks of debt distress post BRI. Therefore, it can be concluded that BRI financing has a part in causing debt distress in recipient countries.