Contact: Sara Marie Blichner, University of Oslo

[email protected] or [email protected]

Code for analyzing and plotting for AR6 IPCC.

Note: Thanks to Zebedee Nicholls Zebedee Nicholls ([email protected]) and Chris Smith https://github.com/chrisroadmap for supplying data and answering questions.

Also, code in ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/notebooks/fig6_12_and_ts15_spm2/utils_hist_att/attribution_1750_2019_newBC_smb.py is is only slightly modified version of code Bill Collins has written (only technical changes).

The resulting figures can be found in /ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/results. Each folder contains the plot and data for that plot.

git clone https://github.com/sarambl/AR6_CH6_RCMIPFIGS.git
cd AR6_CH6_RCMIPFIGS
conda env create -f env_rcmip_ch6.yml
conda activate rcmip_ch6
pip install -e .
cd ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/notebooks/
python X-shortcuts.py

The correct source citations will be updated soon.

In this work we use:

1. Impulse response function (IRF) from AR6 ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/recommended_irf_from_2xCO2_2021_02_25_222758.csv
2. SSP scenario ERF from FAIR ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/SSPs/
3. ERF from Thornhill et al (2021) ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/table2_thornhill2020.csv
4. Radiative forcing for HFCs from Hodnebrog et al (2020) ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/hodnebrog_tab3.csv
5. Historical emissions of SLCFs from CEDS from here: ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in/historical_delta_GSAT/CEDS_v2021-02-05_emissions
6. Historical concentrations from AR6 ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in/historical_delta_GSAT/LLGHG_history_AR6_v9_updated.xlsx
7. Uncertainties in $\Delta$ GSAT from FAIR ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/slcf_warming_ranges
8. ERF derived from FAiR and downloaded from (github.com/chrisroadmap/ar6)[https://github.com/chrisroadmap/ar6/tree/main/data_output]

• ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/hodnebrog_tab3.csv
• ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/recommended_irf_from_2xCO2_2021_02_25_222758.csv
• ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/table2_thornhill2020.csv
• ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in/input_from_bill_collins/*
• ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in/historical_delta_GSAT/*

• ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/AR6_ERF_1750-2019.csv

• ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/AR6_ERF_minorGHGs_1750-2019.csv

• ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/recommended_irf_from_2xCO2_2021_02_25_222758.csv

• ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/SSPs/*

• ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/data_in_badc_csv/slcf_warming_ranges/*

1. Simply run X_shortcuts.ipynb

Run notebooks in given order in folder ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/notebooks/fig6_12_and_ts15_spm2:

• 01_make_historical_attribution.ipynb
• 02_Emission_based_ERFs.ipynb
• 03_historical_deltaGSAT.ipynb
• 04_01_plot-period_fig2_SPM.ipynb
• 04_02_plot_fig6_12_TS15.ipynb

Run notebooks in given order in folder ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs/notebooks/fig6_22_and_fig6_24:

• 01_preprocess.ipynb
• 02-01-01_compute_delta_T_recommandation.ipynb
• 02-01-02_compute_delta_T_recommandation-HFCs.ipynb
• 02-02-01_uncertainty.ipynb
• 02-02-02_uncertainty_sum_aerosols.ipynb
• 03-01_plot_fig6_22_dT_lineplot.ipynb
• 03-02_plot_fig6_24_dT_stacked_scenario.ipynb

The figures are produced in notebooks:

• Figure 6.12 (TS15)
• Data for SMP fig 2
• Figure 6.22
• Figure 6.24

• ar6_ch6_rcmipfigs

  • data_in Input data
  • data_in_badc_csv Input data with added metadata. This is done for the data where it was reasonable and is used when it exists (otherwise the data in data_in is used). See notebook notebooks/convert2badc_csv/convert2badc_csv.ipynb for the conversion between input data and badc_csv.
  • data_out Data products produced through the notebooks, but not the final plotted data.
  • misc Various non-code utils
  • notebooks Notebooks
  • results Results in terms of figures and data plotted.
  • utils Code utilities

A list of the required packages for these figures can be found in env_rcmip_ch6.yml

• Hodnebrog, Ø, B. Aamaas, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. Marston, G. Myhre, C. J. Nielsen, M. Sandstad, K. P. Shine, and T. J. Wallington. “Updated Global Warming Potentials and Radiative Efficiencies of Halocarbons and Other Weak Atmospheric Absorbers.” Reviews of Geophysics 58, no. 3 (2020): e2019RG000691. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000691.

• Thornhill, Gillian D., William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O’Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, et al. “Effective Radiative Forcing from Emissions of Reactive Gases and Aerosols – a Multi-Model Comparison.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21, no. 2 (January 21, 2021): 853–74. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021.