Papers by Anne Stenersen
The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Euro... more The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Europe. We look at the scope of attack activity, perpetrators and their networks, modus operandi and funding. For all the talk of a new threat we argue that, apart from scope, less is new than most assume. IS wants largely the same as al-Qaida did by attacking Europe. Their tactics are similar and their networks overlap in time and space. The core dynamics of the threat endure. It is premature to talk of a new paradigm in recruitment, but more terrorists are instructed online than before. Patterns in funding remain relatively stable, but there is an increase in plots financed from abroad. Despite military setbacks, IS remains a formidable terrorist actor, with territorial control, economic muscle and thousands of Europeans in its ranks. These things, combined with the group's skillful social media usage, are exhausting European security services' capacities. So is the refugee situation, which is exploited by IS to transfer personnel. If IS's territorial control persists, we foresee attempts at large-scale operations, including attempts at using improvised chemical or radiological devices. If IS continues to lose ground, small-scale attacks by single actors will become even more frequent.
Fifteen years after the start of Operation Enduring Freedom , al-Qàida appears to be rebuilding i... more Fifteen years after the start of Operation Enduring Freedom , al-Qàida appears to be rebuilding its presence in Afghanistan. Al-Qàida's comeback in Afghanistan can be understood in light of three main factors : its enduring relationship with the Taliban , its drive to embed its struggle with local and regional insurgents and broaden its support , and its ability to adapt its strategies and methods to respond to current events. While al-Qà ida is focused on establishing a presence in the Middle East , al-Qà ida ' s Pakistani-led branch on the Indian Subconti-nent appears more of a regional than global threat. However , this could easily change , and therefore containing the al-Qà ida threat in Afghanistan is still a matter of urgent concern for the Western counterterrorism community .
This article provides the most thorough overview yet of how jihadis have plotted terrorist attack... more This article provides the most thorough overview yet of how jihadis have plotted terrorist attacks in Europe. Drawing on a database of 122 incidents, we review trends in weapon types, attack types and target types in the period 1994-2013. The overall finding is that jihadi terrorism in Europe is becoming more discriminate in its targeting while attack types and weapons are becoming progressively more diverse. The most likely scenarios in the coming three to five years are bomb attacks and armed assaults against sub-national entities, communities and individuals. A majority of the terrorist attacks will be limited in scope, but mass-casualty terrorism cannot be excluded. Foreign fighters from Syria are likely to influence the threat level in Europe, but we do not expect them to alter patterns in modus operandi dramatically.
This study explores how terrorists utilise the Internet to learn bomb-making skills. Unlike previ... more This study explores how terrorists utilise the Internet to learn bomb-making skills. Unlike previous studies, it does not focus on assessing the quality of online bomb recipes. Rather, it discusses the efforts being made by on-line jihadists to help others learn by providing so-called "e-learning courses." As of today, such courses have few active participants yet they tend to attract large interest -indicating that there is a demand among Al-Qaeda's online sympathisers for developing this concept further.
. After re-settling in the tribal areas of Pakistan, the main concern for these fighters was to f... more . After re-settling in the tribal areas of Pakistan, the main concern for these fighters was to fight a guerrilla war against U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, not to plot terrorist attacks in Western countries. The study demonstrates that over time, the foreign fighters became more integrated in local communities. These early developments may help to explain why Al Qaeda continues to enjoy a strong sanctuary in the tribal areas of Pakistan today.
This study aims to investigate how Al Qaeda uses the Internet for military training and preparati... more This study aims to investigate how Al Qaeda uses the Internet for military training and preparation. What kind of training material is available on jihadi webpages, who produces it, and for what purpose? The article argues that in spite of a vast amount of training-related literature online, there have been few organized efforts by Al Qaeda to train their followers by way of the Internet. The Internet is per today not a ''virtual training camp'' organized from above, but rather a resource bank maintained and accessed largely by self-radicalized sympathizers.
Books by Anne Stenersen
Since 9/11, al-Qaida has become one of the most infamous and widely discussed terrorist organizat... more Since 9/11, al-Qaida has become one of the most infamous and widely discussed terrorist organizations in the world, with affiliates spread across the globe. However, little-known are the group's activities within Afghanistan itself, something which Anne Stenersen examines in this book. Using an array of unique primary sources, she presents an alternative narrative of al-Qaida's goals and strategies prior to 9/11. She argues that al-Qaida's actions were not just an ideological expression of religious fanaticism and violent anti-Americanism, but that they were actually far more practical and organised, with a more revolutionary and Middle Eastern-focused agenda than previously thought. Through Stenersen's analysis, we see how al-Qaida employed a dual strategy: with a small section focused on staging international terrorist attacks, but at the same time a larger part dedicated to building a resilient and cohesive organization that would ultimately serve as a vanguard for future Islamist revolutions.
Ever since the late 1990s, it has been claimed that the threat of chemical, biological, radiologi... more Ever since the late 1990s, it has been claimed that the threat of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) terrorism from al-Qaida is real and growing. Yet, few academic studies have analyzed al-Qaida's actual interest in developing a CBRN capability. This book investigates al-Qaida's interest in CBRN weapons, as reflected by statements and activities on various levels within the network between 1996-2007. The study considers a variety of primary sources, ranging from the writings of well-known strategists to chemical formulations posted on al-Qaida-affiliated web pages. The study concludes that al-Qaida's interest in using non-conventional weapons in achieving their strategic goals is lower than commonly assumed. The book then goes on to describe why there is an apparent lack of CBRN-related innovation within the network. This book is aimed at anyone with an interest in CBRN terrorism or militant islamism, and might be of particular interest to individuals within the counter-terrorism community.
Book Reviews by Anne Stenersen
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Papers by Anne Stenersen
Books by Anne Stenersen
Book Reviews by Anne Stenersen