The graph purported to break out "Obamacare applications by state for 2025" by states which voted for Donald Trump vs. those which voted for Kamala Harris in November 2024. Here's what it looked like:
As I noted at the time, this graph was technically accurate...while simultaneously being jaw-droppingly misleading, for several reasons, including:
It was in early 2021 that Congressional Democrats passed & President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which among other things dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the level it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.
In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.
Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:
This morning, the Twitter account NewsWire_US, which claims to be a "U.S. and world news aggregator," posted an amazing-looking graph which purports to break out "Obamacare applications by state for 2025" by states which voted for Donald Trump vs. those which voted for Kamala Harris last month.
Here's the graph, which includes no further context (including any data sources...NewsWire claims it came from Reuters but I can't find the original link to a story by them with this graph) beyond making it look like a whopping 82% of ACA enrollees live in Trump states:
Update: Here's the original Reuters article, which was actually published on Dec. 11th, which at least explains why it only includes data through Nov. 16th/9th, anyway.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has published two 2025 ACA Open Enrollment Period "snapshot reports," both of which had above-the-fold numbers which make it look as though enrollment numbers are lagging significantly behind last year's record-breaking totals:
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is committed to creating a robust Marketplace Open Enrollment process for consumers so they can effortlessly purchase high-quality, affordable health care coverage. CMS reports that nearly 988,000 consumers who do not currently have health care coverage through the individual market Marketplace have signed up for plan year 2025 coverage.
Additional Opportunity for Georgians to Enroll in Health Coverage that will begin on January 1, 2025; Coverage Begins January 1 for Plans Selected by December 20
The Office of Commissioner of Insurance and Safety Fire (OCI) announces an extension of the deadline to enroll in coverage that will begin on January 1, 2025. “Open Enrollment is the optimal time for Georgians to explore affordable options for health coverage,” said Commissioner King.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is committed to creating a robust Marketplace Open Enrollment process for consumers so they can effortlessly purchase high-quality, affordable health care coverage. CMS reports that nearly 988,000 consumers who do not currently have health care coverage through the individual market Marketplace have signed up for plan year 2025 coverage.
Over 496,000 New Consumers Selected Affordable Health Coverage in ACA Marketplace
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is committed to creating a robust Marketplace Open Enrollment process for consumers so they can effortlessly purchase high-quality, affordable health care coverage. CMS reports that 496,000 consumers who do not currently have health care coverage through the individual-market Marketplace have signed up for plan year 2025 coverage.
Georgia Access, Georgia’s new State-based Exchange, announced today its readiness for the upcoming Open Enrollment period, including a robust roster of over 15,000 new and returning certified agents to date and multiple enrollment options for consumers to shop for and enroll in quality, affordable health coverage.
“Georgia Access is pleased that more than 15,000 licensed and certified agents will be available to help residents find the best coverage options to meet their unique needs and budgets,” said Georgia Access Executive Director Cheryl Gardner. “Agents offer consumers localized help and a personalized customer experience. They are integral in our mission to providing multiple pathways for consumers to enroll in health coverage and to reducing the number of uninsured residents in Georgia.”
Georgia's health department doesn't publish their annual rate filings publicly, but they don't hide them either; I was able to acquire pretty much everything via a simple FOIA request. Huge kudos to the GA OCI folks!
Georgia's individual market has grown dramatically over the past two years; it went from 660,000 in 2023 to 813,000 people in 2024 to a stunning 1.3 MILLION this year. The weighted average rate increase for unsubsidized enrollees will go up 9.9% if state regulators approve all of the carrier requests as is.
I last checked in on the "Georgia Pathways" program (the Peach State's partial-Medicaid expansion program which offiically extends up to 100% of the Federal Poverty Level but which also includes a draconian work reporting requirement) back in January.
At the time, only around 2,500 Georgians had actually enrolled in Georgia Pathways, for a number of rather obvious reasons:
