The accelerating spread of bird flu through US poultry flocks is pushing the price of eggs to highs rivaling or exceeding the cost in December 2022 at the height of the post-pandemic inflation scare.
The average cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs was $3.65 in November, up from $3.37 in October, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week, up from $2.50 at the start of the year, as farmers battle with a fatal strain of H5N1 that continues to disrupt the US egg supply.
The US egg-laying hen flock was down 3% in October from the year prior, or 315m birds, and egg production was down 4%, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The latest consumer price index, or CPI, shows that the price of eggs is up 37.5% from a year ago. Food prices overall rose 2.4% over the same period.
The price hike comes as shoppers stock up for the holidays, and because flocks of egg-laying hens are smaller because producers haven’t recovered from losses to bird flu over the past two years.
Wholesale prices for large eggs reached $5.57 a dozen in the midwest on Wednesday, up 150% from a year ago and topping the previous record of $5.46 from December 2022, commodity data firm Expana said.
In California, where regulations prohibit farmers from raising hens in cages, a dozen eggs is at a record of $8.85 per dozen, the data firm said. Some stores in the state have instituted caps on egg purchases.
The egg situation may get worse for the $67bn poultry industry. The USDA has lowered its forecasts for egg production and exports in 2025 while raising its price outlook.
The spread of bird flu – California announced a state of emergency this week after H5N1, the virus that causes avian influenza, was found in hundreds of dairies in the state – has hit hen flocks hard. Of 35 million egg-laying hens killed by the virus this year, nearly half contracted the virus in the past three months.
This month, workers in Iowa, the top egg-producing state, began culling a massive flock of 4.2 million hens that tested positive.
The price of eggs, a basic metric of consumer economic sentiments, became a campaign issue for both political parties ahead of November’s national elections. Polls have consistently found that inflation was the top concern for voters hit by rising grocery checkout prices.
President-elect Donald Trump made lowering grocery prices a key part of his campaign. He has since conceded that lowering prices down may be “very hard”.
Underlying concerns that bird flu could potentially inflict another pandemic scenario are also rising. Last week, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention alerted to the first severe case, in Louisiana, in a person who had kept backyard flocks of birds.
The virus has infected 61 people so far this year, according to federal data, mostly among people who had contact with dairy cattle. While the variants of H5 are different in cattle and poultry, the former was also found to have killed two domestic cats and infected three others in California.
The agriculture secretary, Tom Vilsack, told Reuters that the agency has funds to buy some poultry vaccine and it would be logical for the incoming Trump administration to continue supporting vaccine development.
US farmers issued a call in September, ahead of the wildfowl migration season, for the Biden administration to allow vaccinations for chickens, turkeys and cows against bird flu.
Lawmakers say the USDA should accelerate its vaccine research. “It is obvious that the current outbreak has no end in sight,” a dozen members of Congress, led by the representatives Randy Feenstra, a Republican, and Democrat Jim Costa, said in a letter to Vilsack.
Vilsack previously said that a vaccine campaign could be a barrier to exports if import countries perceive that the vaccine could be masking the presence of the virus.
“Widespread vaccination of commercial poultry is not possible in the short term,” Vilsack wrote in a March letter to members of Congress reported by Reuters.