Q.C.F Project Mahesh Patel 201704100710032
Q.C.F Project Mahesh Patel 201704100710032
Q.C.F Project Mahesh Patel 201704100710032
On
“OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION USING SHARPE’S
SINGLE INDEX MODEL - A STUDY OF SELECTED STOCKS FROM
NIFTY-50”
Submitted to
Department of Management
Shrimad Rajchandra Institute of
Management And Computer Application
Submitted by
Mahesh B. Patel
(Enrollment no. 201704100710032)
Guided by
Ms. Pranjal Desai
Year
2018-19
DECLARATION
DATE:
2
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION ......................................................................................................................................... 2
ACKNOWLEDGMENT ............................................................................................................................ 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................... 4
1. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................................... 6
1.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 6
1.2 Fundamental Analysis ................................................................................................................... 6
1.3 Technical Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 6
1.4 Quantitative Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 6
1.5 SHARPE SINGLE INDEX MODEL ............................................................................................... 6
1.6 ASSUMPTION OF SHARPE SINGLE INDEX MODEL: ........................................................... 7
1.7 ADVANTAGES OF SHARPE’S SINGLE INDEX MODEL ........................................................ 7
1.8 DISADVANTAGES OF SHARPE SINGLE INDEX MODEL .................................................... 7
2.1 Return .................................................................................................................................................. 8
a). Estimate the return on stock. ...................................................................................................... 8
b). Estimate the return on market. ................................................................................................... 8
2.2. Beta Coefficient: .............................................................................................................................. 8
2.3 Risk-Free Rate of Return (Rf) .................................................................................................... 9
2.4 Excess return to beta ratio for each security ........................................................................ 9
2.7 Proportion for each selected securities .............................................................................. 10
4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: ....................................................................................................... 13
4.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT .............................................................................................................. 13
4.2 NEED FOR THE STUDY ................................................................................................................ 13
4.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY: .................................................................................................... 13
4.4 RESEARCH DESIGN ....................................................................................................................... 13
4.5 SAMPLE SIZE ................................................................................................................................... 13
4.5 SOURCES OF DATA........................................................................................................................ 13
4.6 TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS .................................................................................................... 13
5. DATA ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................... 14
6. FINDINGS............................................................................................................................................ 19
7. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................... 20
7. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 21
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 5.1 Ranking of the Stocks Based on Excess Return to Beta Ratio .. ………………..14
Table 5.2 Sample Companies based on their Ranks and Unsystematic Risk…………...15
Table 5.3 Ci of Sample Companies' Stocks …………………………………………………………...15
Table 5.4 Proportion of Investment Proposed…………………………………………………..….16
Table 5.5 Return on Portfolio………………………………………………………………………………17
LIST OF FIGURES
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1. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
1.1 INTRODUCTION
The history of Indian stock Markets is recognised as one of the oldest in Asia. The
evolutions of Indian Stock Market Indian Stock Markets is traced back nearly 200
years ago. Its existence in the market is considered as a most predominant market
due to the globalization and liberalization which happened in the year of 1990‟s.
Though it happened only less than 2% of total population invests in stocks.
Primarily it has been divided into two parts, Primary market and secondary market.
IPO happens in primary market and trading of issued shares will happen in
secondary market. Security analysis and portfolio management will help to
construct the optimum portfolio for the equities market and helps to make the right
decision for investment.
Generally, Security Analysis is broadly classified into three categories:
Fundamental Analysis refers to the evaluation of securities with the help of certain
fundamental business factors such as financial statements, current interest rates as
well as competitor’s products and financial market. Financial statements are nothing
but proofs or written records of various financial transactions of an investor or
company. Financial statements are used by financial experts to study and analyze
the profits, liabilities, assets of an organization or an individual.
Technical analysis refers to the analysis of securities and helps the finance
professionals to forecast the price trends through past price trends and market data.
Sharpe’s Model proposes that the relationship between each pair of securities can
indirectly be measured by comparing each security to a common factor ‘market
performance index’ that is shared amongst all the securities.
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1.6 ASSUMPTION OF SHARPE SINGLE INDEX MODEL:
1) The Single Index Model proposed by William Sharpe does not consider
uncertainty in the market as time progresses; instead the model optimizes for a
single point in time.
2) This model assumes that security prices move together only because of common
co-movement with the market. But there are influences beyond the general business
and market conditions, like industry-oriented factors that also influence movement
of securities together.
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2. CONSTRUCTION OF AN OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO USING SIM
2.1 Return:
The total gain or loss experienced on an investment over a given period of time,
calculated by dividing the asset’s cash distributions during the period, plus change in
value, by its beginning-of-period investment value is termed as return.
Where,
Pt = current year price
Po = previous year price.
Where,
Pt = current year price
Po = previous year price.
Where,
rs = return on the stock ,
rm = return on the market
Cov (rs,rm) = covariance of the stock and market
Var(rm) = variance of the market.
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2.3 Risk-Free Rate of Return (Rf)
Risk-free rate of return is the return on a security that is free from default risk and is
uncorrelated with returns from anything else in the economy. A 364 day treasury
bill rate.
2.4 Next, find excess return to beta ratio for each security
Where,
Ri = the expected return of stock i
Rf = risk free rate of return
βi = systematic risk of stock i
2.5 Next, find the systematic and unsystematic risks. are computed as under:
2.6 As a next step, find the ‘Cut-off rate’ ‘C’i by using following equation:
Where,
σ2ei = unsystematic risk
β = beta value of individual security
σm = market index risk
Ri-Rf = excess return
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The point will be selected as cut off point after which cumulative value of Ci start
declining. Those securities which have value of Ci more or equal to cut off point will
be selected in optimum portfolio.
2.7 The next find proportion for each selected securities will be found by
using the following formula:
Where,
Xi = proportion of investment
All rational investors desires to maximize their return with less risk on his
investment in a portfolio. This means that the needs to construct an efficient
portfolio minimum risk for a given expected return. This can be achieved with the
help of sharpe single index model.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) is the leading exchange in india and the fourth
largest in the world by equity trading volume in 2015. National Stock Exchange has a
total market capitalization of more than US$ 2.27 trillion making it world's 11th
largest exchange in terms of market capitalization in april 2018. And NSE is the
largest stock exchange in india in terms of total and average daily turnover for
equity shares.
The select 10 companies stock has major contribution to Nifty-50 to increace market
cap.
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3. LITERATURE REVIEW
3. Mr. Laxmikanta Giri and Dr. Gayadhar Parhi (2017) in their research
“Optimum portfolio construction using single index model”. For that, fifty
companies from the Nifty 50 Sensex index were selected for the study. The main
objective of the study to construct an optimum portfolio using Single Index Model.
Daily data for one financial year were used for constructing the portfolio; i.e.
from 1st January 2015 to 31st December 2015. All calculations have been done
using MS Excel. From the analysis it was found that only five companies were
included in the portfolio constructed out of the fifty companies.
4. Dr. S. Poornima and Aruna P Ramesh (2017) in their research “Optimal
portfolio construction of selected stocks from NSE using Sharpe’s single index
model”. For that, fifty companies from the Nifty 50 Sensex index were selected
for the study. The main objective of the study to construct an optimal portfolio
empirically using the Sharpe’s Single Index Model and to calculate the cut-off
rate which serves as a bench mark to select stocks to be included in a portfolio.
Monthly data for five financial years were used for constructing the portfolio;
i.e. 2010 to 2015 All calculations have been done using Prowess software. From
the analysis it was found that only eleven companies were included in the
portfolio constructed out of the fifty companies.
5. Mr. Mohith. S., Pavithra. S., Bharadwaj R., and Dr. A. Ananth (2017) in their
research “Application of Sharpe’s single index on the Optimum portfolio
construction in Indian capital market”. For that, NSE Nifty nineteen companies
for F.M.C.G and energy sectors selected for the study. The main objective of the
study is to analyse the risk-return relationships of the sample stocks and
calculate the proportion of money to be invested by investors out of their
investment. Monthly data for five financial years were used for constructing the
portfolio; i.e. from 1st January 2011 to 31st December 2015. All calculations have
been done using MS Excel. From the analysis it was found that only eight
companies were included in the portfolio constructed out of the nineteen
companies.
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4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:
The present study is entitled, “Optimal Portfolio Construction using Sharpe’s Single
Index Model - A Study of Selected Stocks from NIFTY-50”
Whole investors are facing some complexities while securities from a combination of
portfolios. They don’t know among those securities which are performing well and
not performing well in the market. So by undertaking this study the researcher can
guide the investors to select a security that satisfies their needs.
This study is purely based on secondary data obtained from the following websites
www.nseindia.com, www.rbi.org.in and www.investing.com. For the period of 1st
August 2013 to 31st August 2018.
Tools used for the study was risk and return, beta and Sharpe optimal single index.
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5. DATA ANALYSIS
SR. MEAN
NO COMPANY NAME RETURN(%) Ri - Rf Βi RANK
Table 5.1 depicts the excess return and to beta ratio. Excess return is the difference
between expected return on the stock and risk free rate of interest. The risk free
rate of interest is calculated to be 7.48% in the study. The excess return on beta ratio
measures the additional return on security per unit of systematic risk. Table 1 shows
that the Bajaj Finance stocks has the highest-excess return to beta ratio of 56.09
while that of state bank of india stock has lowest of 6.80 This ratio provides the
relationship between potential risk and reward from a company's stock. The ranking
of stocks done on the basis of excess return to beta ratio reveals that while the
Hindustan Unilever stock ranks first, the State bank of india stock ranks the last. In
addition to the systematic risk of individual securities, their unsystematic risk as
measured by σei2 is also computed and tabulated in the Table 2. It is the unique risk
affecting the firm due to certain factors affecting only the company issuing such
security. It is an avoidable or controllable risk. The companies are listed in this table
based on their ranks. The excess return is divided by the unsystematic risk σei2 and
multiplied by the beta in order to calculate the ‘ Ci’ values. The Unsystematic risk is
calculated using the following formula: σ2ei =σ2 – β2 σ2m
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SR. Cumulative of
NO COMPANY NAME σ2ei (Ri – Rf/ σ2ei)β (Ri – Rf/ σ2ei)β
Table 5.2 reveals that out of ten companies, Bajaj Finance has the highest value of
0.0651 and Housing Development Finance Corporation has the less risk of 0.0112As
a next step the ‘Ci’ was computed and tabulated below:
SR. Cumulative
NO COMPANY NAME β2/σ2 ei of (β2/ σ2ei) Ci
1 Bajaj finance 20.67 20.67 15.37
2 Hindustan Unilever 15.81 36.48 16.62
3 Kotak Mahindra Bank 53.19 89.67 18.58
4 Housing Development Finance Corporation. 91.08 180.75 18.70
5 Asian Paints 33.71 214.46 18.60
6 Reliance Industries 26.75 241.21 18.32
7 HDFC Banks 52.5 293.71 17.65
8 Infosys 7.29 301.00 17.57
9 Tata Consultancy Services 16.12 317.12 17.32
10 State Bank Of India 63.48 380.6 15.79
Table 5.3 Ci of Sample Companies' Stocks
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Table 5.3 represents the Ci of sample companies. The β2/ σ2ei and its cumulative are
necessary for the calculation of Ci. The Ci value goes on increasing from 12.05 to
16.45 and thereafter, starts declining. Therefore, the value of 16.45 is considered as
the 'cut-off point'. The securities which come after the cut-off point will not be
considered for the optimal portfolio construction. The Ci is calculated and tabulated
as under:
SR.
NO COMPANY NAME Ci Zi Xi
1 Bajaj Finance 15.37 725.58 67.13
2 Hindustan Unilever 16.62 141.79 13.12
3 Kotak Mahindra Bank 18.58 175.53 16.24
4 Housing Development Finance Corporation. 18.70 37.88 3.51
Total 1080.78 100
Table 5.4 Proportion of Investment Proposed
Table 5.4 represents the proportion of investment to be made in each security. The
five securities ranking from 1 to 4 are selected for the optimal portfolio. The
percentage of funds to be invested in each security is presented in figure 5.1:
3.51%
BAJAJ FINANCE
16.24%
HINDUSTAN
UNILEVER
KOTAK MAHINDRA
13.12% 67.13 BANK
H.D.F.COR.
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In a sample of ten companies four companies have been selected for the optimal
portfolio construction applying SIM. Once the companies on which investment is to
be made are known it is essential to know the proportion of investment to be made
in each company's security. Figure 5.1 represents the proportion of investment to be
made by the investor to earn maximum returns. The figure shows that 67.13% of
investment may be made in the Bajaj Finanvce (which means majority of the funds is
to be invested on this company's stock), followed by 16.24 % in Kotak Mahindra ltd,
13.12% in Hindustan Uniliver Limited. 3.51% in Housing Development Finance
Corporation. A look at the individual security returns from these stocks as well as
their respective returns on portfolio is also presented below:
Return Return on
COMPANY NAME Xi in (%) Portfolio(%)
Bajaj Finance 67.13 72.55 48.70
Hindustan Unilever 13.12 22.64 2.97
Kotak Mahindra Bank 16.24 29.36 4.77
Housing Development Finance Corporation. 3.51 22.02 0.77
Total 100 57.21
Table 5.5 Return on Portfolio
Table 5.5 represents the proportion of investment, individual security return and
the returns on portfolio. The returns on portfolio are calculated based on the
proportion of investment in each security. The highest return on portfolio is from
the Bajaj Finance company i.e. 48.70% and the lowest is Housing Development
Finance Corporation ltd i.e.0.77%. Total return from the optimal portfolio is 57.21%.
Thus, the inclusion of stocks in a portfolio is beneficial to companies despite the fact
that expected returns from individual stocks is less.
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140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
BAJAJ FINANACE HINDUSTAN H.D. F.CORP. Kotak mahindra
UNILEVER bank
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6. FINDINGS
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7. CONCLUSION
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7. REFERENCES
3.) Mr. Mohith. S, (2017). Application Of Single Sharpe Index On The Optimum
Portfolio Construction In Indian Capital Market. International Journal Of Physical
And Social Science, 7(7), 60-72.
4.) Mr. Laxmikanta Giri (2017).Optimum Portfolio Construction Using Single Index.
Intercontinental Journal Of Finance Research, 5(2), 62-69.
5.) Mr. Sathyapriya, M. (2016). Optimum Portfolio Construction Using Sharpe Index
Model With Reference to Infrastructure sector and Pharmaceutical Sector.
International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 6(8), 490-496.
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