Nuclear Bomb Map Shows Impact of Russian Weapons on Major US Cities

As global tensions escalate amid threats of nuclear war from Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, Newsweek has looked at the impact of a Russian nuclear weapon on various U.S. cities and their surroundings.

In September, Putin lowered the threshold of nuclear weapon use by saying Russia would "consider the possibility of using nuclear weapons when receiving reliable information about a massive launch of means of aerospace attack and their crossing of our state border.

"This includes strategic and tactical aircraft, as well as cruise missiles and drones, hypersonic and other delivery vehicles. Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression, including if the enemy using conventional weapons poses a critical threat."

Newsweek used maps produced by Alex Wellerstein, a professor and historian of nuclear technology, to assess what the impact would be if Moscow attacked with its R-36M2 (also known as the SS-18 Satan), one of the largest and most powerful heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) ever built.

It can yield the equivalent of 20 megatons (20,000 kilotons) of TNT explosives and has a range of up to 10,000 miles.

An estimated 1,638,140 people would die in Washington, 5,458,130 in New York, and 2,758,790 in Los Angeles.

The fireball radius (inner yellow circle), in which everything would be vaporized by intense heat rising to millions of degrees F, would reach around 15.1 square miles. The more moderate blast damage radius (inner gray circle), covering 442 square miles of the blast, would destroy residential buildings and probably cause widespread fires.

Anyone within 2,360 square miles of the explosion (the thermal radiation radius: wider orange circle) would be at risk of suffering third-degree burns throughout the skin, "often painless because they destroy the pain nerves," which can cause severe scarring, disablement and require amputation.

Within the light blast damage radius (wider gray circle), 3,490 square miles from the blast, glass windows should be expected to break, which can cause injuries.

Newsweek has contacted the defense departments for the U.S. and Russia, via email, for comment.

Washington, D.C.:

In the U.S. capital, where, in any given 24-hour period, there would be 6,077,683 people in the full blast range (all four circles) of the simulated detonation, 1,638,140 would die and 2,029,390 would sustain injuries. The fireball radius would include Capitol Hill.

New York

In New York, during 24 hours, 16,250,858 people on average would be present in the full blast range (all four circles) of the simulated detonation. An estimated 5,458,130 people would die and 5,601,470 would suffer injuries. The light blast damage radius would extend out to New Brunswick and Stamford.

Los Angeles

Some 2,758,790 would die and 4,369,390 would be injured. In any given 24-hour period, there are on average 12,092,715 people in the full blast range (all four circles) of the simulated detonation. Thermal radiation would hit Santa Monica, Calabasas, Long Beach and parts of Pomona.

Chicago

In any given 24-hour period, there are on average 7,616,006 people in the full blast range (all four circles) of the simulated detonation in Chicago. There would be an estimated 1,991,320 fatalities and 2,543,730 injuries.

About half the blast's total area would reach across Lake Michigan.

Houston

In Houston, where there are, on average, 5,395,925 people in the full blast range (all four circles) of the simulated detonation at any given 24-hour period, 1,238,500 would die and 1,995,390 would sustain injuries.

Phoenix

Some 972,050 would die in Phoenix and 1,475,300 would suffer injuries. In any given 24-hour period, there are on average 3,878,156 people in the full blast range (all four circles) of the simulated detonation.

Philadelphia

An estimated 1,657,670 would lose their lives in Philadelphia, where there are, on average, 5,930,872 people in the full blast range (all four circles) of the simulated detonation in any 24-hour period. Some 1,998,420 would suffer injuries.

San Antonio

There would be an average of 2,066,944 people in the full blast range (all four circles) of the simulated detonation in any 24-hour period in San Antonio, where 761,840 would die and 754,110 would suffer injuries.

San Diego

Some 968,640 would die in San Diego, while 1,695,900 would sustain injuries. In any given 24-hour period, there are on average 4,528,572 people in the full blast range (all four circles) of the simulated detonation.

Dallas

In any given 24-hour period, there are on average 5,508,224 people in the full blast range (all four circles) of the simulated detonation in Dallas—1,045,700 would die and 1,957,170 would suffer injuries in this scenario.

Methods:

Newsweek calculated the effects of detonating 20,000 kilotons on 10 U.S. cities, including Washington D.C, and looked at the results of an airburst attack, more likely to be used in a strike on a city than a surface attack, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

These estimations would be heavily impacted by how high the detonation takes place. This model assumed the detonation altitude was 27,810 ft.—to maximize the 5 psi range.

The Context

There is currently much talk about nuclear war as conflict escalates between the U.S. and its NATO allies and Russia over the war in Ukraine.

Russian president Vladimir Putin recently signed an updated nuclear doctrine into law which emphasizes that Russia will make "all necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat" and aims to prevent escalating tensions between states that could lead to "military conflicts, including nuclear ones."

It also says that nuclear deterrence should also ensure "an understanding by a potential adversary of the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies."

Ukraine used U.S.-made ATACMS missiles against a target inside Russia for the first time last week, after President Joe Biden allowed such usage.

This followed Moscow's deployment of North Korean troops to the front lines in the Kursk region, an action described by the Biden administration as a significant escalation of the conflict.

On Tuesday, Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia and former Russian president said the U.S. was "seriously discussing the consequences of transferring nuclear weapons to Kyiv" but the White House told Newsweek: "We are not planning to equip Ukraine with nuclear weapons."

Correction 11/28/24, 6:59 p.m. ET: In Chicago, half the blast area would cover Lake Michigan, not the Chicago River as previously stated.