Buying, Selling, & Collecting What Makes For A Million-Dollar Watch At Auction Today?

In 2021, we saw more than 50 wristwatches sell for more than $1 million during the year. As the market has grown and matured, so too have the watches to cross a million dollars – both in number and in variety. Sure, it's kind of an arbitrary threshold, especially with the current day's inflation where yesterday's price is not today's price: $1 million in 1996, when that Calatrava first crossed seven figures, would be something like $2.8 million today.

But 25 years ago, the answer to the question: "What makes for a million-dollar watch at auction?" was pretty simple: vintage, complicated Patek Philippe, perhaps in a white metal if you've got it. After that first groundbreaking sale and through the turn of the century, a handful of complicated Pateks – many of them perpetual calendar chronographs – surpassed a million dollars.

Over the past decade though, a new generation of collectors with varied tastes and interests has grown up, making the answer to the million-dollar question more interesting. Sure, Patek still dominates the upper echelon of watch collecting: About half of the watches to sell for more than $1 million in 2021 were Patek Philippes, but the brand is joined by more watchmakers than ever before. Rolex is there too, but it's not just the same complicated Rolex watches from a decade ago. Collectors are also plopping down millions for independents like George Daniels, F.P. Journe, and Philippe Dufour. Even vintage watches from historic brands such as Omega and Cartier have crossed a million dollars with increased frequency over the past few years.

So what does it take for a watch to sell for $1 million at auction today? Let's take a look at the recent history of million auction results to find an answer, as well as some of the watches that had big dreams of selling for $1 million, but didn't. And with this season's auctions upon us, we'll look at some of the most exciting watches poised to cross a million dollars.

Watches to Sell for $1 Million+ in 2021

Through the turn of the century, a number of other complicated vintage Patek watches broke through the million-dollar mark. That complicated Calatrava was followed months later by a one-of-a-kind steel ref. 1591 waterproof (!) perpetual calendar (sold at Sotheby's for CHF 1.1 million in 1996), and then some 2499s.

Another inflection point seemed to come in 2002 when an intense bidding war resulted in a unique platinum Patek ref. 1415 World Timer selling for CHF 6.6 million, smashing the world record result for a wristwatch at auction. The sale was won by Lee Kun-hee, the former chairman of Samsung and a prolific collector of pretty much everything. Lee died in 2020, and in 2021 the family began selling off much of his collection to help offset a 60 percent inheritance tax. Among the first items to be offered at auction was the platinum 1415 he'd held since winning it in 2002, and its subsequent sale provides our first lesson on the differences between collecting absurdly expensive watches in 2022 compared to 2002: It sold for about $1.87 million last year, around a third of its price 20 years earlier. Why did it sell for so much less?

Swiss collector Edmond Saran wrote a great piece detailing the history of this 1415 when it came up for auction last year. He writes that "back in 2002, this type of watch, a small 31mm Patek, unique and important in history (it is after all among the very first world timers made) was more highly valued by collectors than today. It was a watch for collectors who valued the art of watchmaking and design," in addition to being unique.

"The size of the watch didn't matter so much as it does today," Saran quotes Aurel Bacs, the head auctioneer and senior consultant at Phillips,  as saying, adding that "back then you had collectors who had the deep pockets but also the knowledge to buy pieces like the 1415."

"The price that Christie's got was a fraction of the watch's real value," long-time mega dealer Davide Parmegiani told Revolution after the sale. "To be honest, I'm very sad to see how the market has changed in the last 25 years. I'm happy that it's grown so much and now there are many watches that are worth many millions. But with this auction, I realized that nobody has understood the true rarity of the platinum ref.1415." I'm not as pessimistic on the state of collecting as Parmegiani, but more on that later. He called the sale the "best deal of 2021" in vintage watches.

Sure, the 1415 is still a million-dollar watch, but it'll never be anything close to "the most expensive wristwatch" like it was in 2002. It's too small, too niche, and modern collectors just don't care as much about its historical importance as collectors did two decades ago.

Meanwhile, let's look at another watch from that very same sale last year, just to compare: The Patek ref. 3448 perpetual calendar "Alan Banbery," which sold for $3.7 million. That's double the result it achieved when last sold back in 2008 – in other words, collectors still love the ref. 3448, especially a unique one like this, so what gives?

Well, the ref. 3448 is a big, bold perpetual calendar that still appeals to modern collectors. One youngish collector, Ben Clymer, once wrote that the 3448 is "one of the most wearable and, to me, beautiful vintage Patek Philippes ever made. It is large in diameter – complicated, but self-winding. It was Patek's first self-winding perpetual calendar and is a thoroughly modern vintage watch, in the best of ways." It's everything today's collector still loves about vintage Patek Philippe (and everything the ref. 1415 doesn't have).

This, by the way, is also what makes the 2499 so enduring as, perhaps, the most collectible watch of yesterday and today. Sure, it's got historical importance as a super-rare perpetual calendar chronograph that Patek only made 349 of, but it also just happens to be a big, bad, modern-feeling watch at 37.5mm that'd also eventually get some modern touches like round pump pushers. Additionally, the 2499 is one of the most researched watches in the world, with tomes covering its four series of production.

This leads us to another important factor in making a million-dollar watch: information. Over time, collectors, auction specialists, and dealers piece together information by researching, handling watches, combing through brand archives, and even talking to manufacturers. As mentioned, watch collecting is still a young collecting market, with appreciation for wristwatches only really beginning to take off in the 1980s.

"Now we're talking about watches that are worth millions," Parmegiani told us at our H10 event in 2018. "But back then there was no difference between a 'Big Crown' or a 'Small Crown' Submariner. There was no Mark 1, Mark 2, or Mark 3 Daytona. There was no internet. It was something very difficult to search for and learn about." In that same H10 conversation, John Goldberger credited the internet with helping the watch collecting boom because it allowed collectors around the world to connect, share information and photos, and eventually, trade watches.

Before collectors can really start to appreciate a watch, a base of knowledge must be established. Research must determine what's rare, what's unique, what's historically important, and perhaps more importantly, what's not. Of course, this can work both ways: Much the way we discovered that the platinum 1415 was unique, we can also discover that a watch is not unique. This is a point we'll come back to when looking at some of the newer entrants to the seven-figure club: Especially with more recently produced watches, it takes time for collectors to understand which watches are actually collectible. At this point, we all kind of understand which are the "collectible" vintage Pateks – or, we can read the right books or articles to learn – this is the level of scholarship that is now spreading to other brands and to more modern watches.

For a watch to reach a million dollars in those early years, it had to be rare, complicated, and historically important; usually, it also happened to say "Patek Philippe" on the dial. Just as importantly, there needed to be an established body of information and research. While this type of research first came to vintage Patek, it soon spread to other brands.

They were soon followed by a Paul Newman Daytona "RCO" that sold for more than a million dollars at Christie's thematic Daytona sale in 2013 (another theme we'll return to: this RCO was no doubt bolstered by the hype of the thematic sale put on by auctioneer Aurel Bacs and team). Soon, other complicated vintage Rolexes joined the fun: the calendar references 8171 and 6062, along with a few more Daytonas. In 2019, we explored every million-dollar Rolex that had sold at auction – 28 watches, a number that by my count had grown to 40 by the end of 2021. We grouped million-dollar Rolexes into four categories: (1) 4113 split-seconds chronographs, (2) calendar watches (refs. 8171 and 6062), (3) Daytonas, and (4) watches with provenance, along with two uncategorized "outliers."

The first of these outliers was a simple, dressy 1950s Rolex with a beautiful cloisonné enamel that sold for CHF 1.1 million in 2014. Since these enamel dials were handmade, Rolex made very few, each unique. "They're a throwback to a sort of collecting that's not the most in-vogue right now," Stephen Pulvirent wrote in 2019. "I'm not sure that watch would achieve that price today, but it's a rare, special watch nonetheless." I'm inclined to agree. File this under the same category as the platinum 1415: rare, beautiful, and belonging to an old-school era of watch collecting that today's collectors don't place as high of a monetary value on, for better or worse. Phillips has sold a couple of cloisonné enamel Rolexes since (here and here), but for six figures.

When we first surveyed million-dollar Rolexes in 2019, they all had one thing in common: They were vintage watches. But since then, a few shiny modern Rolexes have sold for more than $1 million. As Logan documented earlier this year, the first non-charity Day-Date crossed a million dollars in January, selling for $1.3 million (Jack Nicklaus' Day-Date sold for $1.2 million in 2019, but 100 percent of that sale went to charity). As he explained, this "Rainbow Khanjar" performed so strongly for a fortuitous swirl of reasons: It's got a crazy rainbow hour bezel and more pavé diamonds than you can count, it's one of just five examples, and it had provenance, coming from the original owner who happened to be given the watch by the Sultan of Oman (the caseback was also signed with the Omani Khanjar, another detail collectors love).

Meanwhile, while vintage Daytonas have been hitting a million dollars for years, practically defining watch collecting during the 2010s, modern Daytonas have only recently joined the party. This again illustrates the shifting interest to rare, shiny modern Rolexes at the top of the market. This first happened in 2020, when a platinum Zenith-powered Daytona from 1999 sold for $3.27 million, a record for an automatic Daytona. The watch was a ref. 16516, one of five believed to have been produced at the request of Rolex's CEO at the time, Patrick Heiniger (supposedly, he kept one for himself). Each ref. 16516 has a unique dial – this particular one featured a lapis lazuli dial (in 2018, we'd seen an example with a mother-of-pearl dial sell for just shy of $1 million). In 2021, Sotheby's sold the third of these five unicorns featuring a bright blue "Stella" dial for a slightly lower, but still astounding, $3.1 million.

If you think about it as a collector, this makes complete sense. You – millionaire collector you – are interested in discovering something new and exciting, not some washed-up vintage Daytona that Antiquorum sold in 1998, changed hands a few times, appeared on a Talking Watches episode, and then sold again at auction a few years ago. On top of that, the stories of these more modern Day-Dates and Daytonas are easy to buy into: The Sultan of Oman had just five of these Rainbow Day-Dates made, and now you can have one? Or, you can own one of five platinum Daytonas commissioned by the CEO of Rolex himself? The sales pitch writes itself.

At the same time, some vintage Daytonas that have either flirted with or passed a million dollars have flatlined a bit. They almost feel too rare. Like, so little is known about them, what's a collector to do? To be sure, I'm not suggesting anything untoward on the part of any sellers – I'm just saying that collecting vintage Rolex, especially at this level, can be daunting.

Take the pulsation dial 6239 as an example. This is a hyper-rare watch (probably less than 10 of 'em), the type of thing John Mayer pulls out on Talking Watches (remember when he showed us his 6264 pulsation?) In the past year, two examples have sold for the exact same price ($693,000) at Phillips and then at Sotheby's. This is actually less than a pulsation 6239 sold for way back in 2013 at Bacs' thematic Daytona sale (CHF 761,000). Surely, with all the growth in watch collecting, this watch should've passed a million dollars by now, right? But no. Right now, a million dollars just isn't happening for this particular Daytona. These vintage Daytonas can be so rare and so intimidating, why not just scoop up a modern, platinum Daytona commissioned by the CEO of Rolex instead?

This isn't to say all vintage Rolexes are destined for decline. The other "outlier" among million-dollar Rolexes we identified back in 2019 was the first Submariner to pass $1 million. But this Submariner had something important going for it that those mega modern Rolexes did too: It came from the family of the original owner, with real, verifiable provenance (in addition to being super rare). Since vintage Rolex collecting can be so daunting, and sometimes it can feel like all these watches have been traded and passed around more times than a charcuterie platter, watches that are new to the market, exciting, and with legit provenance can still get even the most jaded of collectors excited.

That said, I think it's likely we'll continue to see more new thrills, like those special-commission modern Day-Dates or Daytonas, hit a million dollars more than unicorn-level, original owner Subs.

With Patek and Rolex, collectors want rarity, condition, and real provenance (when applicable). But with these independent watchmakers, an additional emphasis is placed on the actual craftsmanship, as these living legends are often considered artists as much as watchmakers.

Take Journe as an example. At the pinnacle of Journe collecting sits the Tourbillon Souscription (subscription for the Anglophiles), the watch he made in the 1990s to help finance the launch of his brand. He made 20 Souscription Tourbillons, which means they're not only rare, but also historically important for one of watchmaking's great contemporary indies. A Souscription Tourbillon first passed $1 million in 2020, when Phillips sold an example for $1.4 million (the first non-charity Journe to pass a million dollars).

In addition to rarity, collectors love the handmade details from a master: the dial on these early Souscription Tourbillons is hand-finished with a layer of clean lacquer on top; the movement is made of brass by Journe himself before he'd switch to using only precious metals for his calibers. These early watches have all the character, and even flaws, of a watch that was handmade the old-fashioned way.

Sure, other Journes have crossed a million dollars, but it's this unique blend of handmade craftsmanship and historical importance that's supercharged the Souscription Tourbillon. Most recently, Souscription Tourbillon No. 1 sold for $3.5 million, a far cry from the $161,000 that one sold for just five years before that.

Meanwhile, we'll soon be at a place where you can't buy a Dufour for less than a million dollars at auction, also a far cry from when a trio of Simplicities first appeared for sale in 2016, all selling for about $250,000 (this Simplicity was soooo close to hitting a million last month; a 20th Anniversary Simplicity already passed $1 million in 2020). But collectors haven't bought into Dufour just because his watches are rare – sure, the 200ish watches he's made isn't a lot, but other indies have produced fewer. Collectors have bought in because he's considered a modern master, and each of his watches is straight from the hand of the master, hand-finished and assembled by Dufour, demonstrating his unrivaled craftsmanship and finishing. His complicated watches that have come to auction, namely the Duality and Grand & Petite Sonnerie, already sell for multi-millions. (For my money, Hodinkee's four-minute video look inside Dufour's atelier is still one of the coolest videos on this website.)

It should be noted that watches with charitable causes, especially from indies – unique Journe watches made for Only Watch or crazy creations like the Naissance d'une Montre Prototype From Greubel Forsey (that Dufour also had a hand in) – often crossed a million dollars before non-charity lots did, but I've focused on non-charity lots because of the tendency for charitable causes to skew results.

Sure, with vintage Rolex or Patek, some attention is paid to craftsmanship – there's a reason a complicated Rolex like the 4113 was the first to hit a million dollars – but this has never been a primary consideration. After all, we've seen dozens of Daytonas sell for more than a million dollars at this point, but not much technically separates it from the dozens of other vintage chronographs powered by a Valjoux 72. With indies, considerations like hand-finishing, assembly, and the details that set a movement apart – anglage, delicate Geneva stripes, polished jewel sinks, and so on – can make for million-dollar results.

It's not just indies that have started crashing the million-dollar party in the past few years. Other historical brands like Omega and Cartier have also begun to see watches sell for more than a million dollars with increasing regularity.

Take Omega. It first crossed a million dollars in 2017 when one of the earliest tourbillon wristwatches sold for CHF 1.4 million. A year later, Elvis Presley's Omega sold for even more. Then, in 2021, a tropical Speedmaster 2915-1 became the most expensive Omega ever, selling for a reality-bending $3.4 million. Then, just this year, astronaut Wally Schirra's commemorative "Apollo XI" Speedmaster sold for $1.9 million. All of these results – particularly the last couple, if I may say – were kind of surprising. But save for the tropical 2915-1 (honestly, that one feels like an outlier), each of these watches was historically important, two of them through notable provenance.

Sometimes the brand doesn't even matter that much. In 2015, astronaut Dave Scott's Bulova chronograph – the only privately-held wristwatch worn on the moon – sold for $1.5 million. Of course, this one was all about the provenance and historical importance, and the brand name hardly mattered. This wasn't just a watch, it was an important thing. Collectors are obsessed with few things more than space travel, and this watch probably could've said nothing on the dial and it still would've sold for $1 million.

As for Cartier: Just two years ago, it probably would've been inconceivable that a simple, dressy time-only vintage Cartier would sell for more than a million dollars. Now, we've seen it happen twice in the past six months: First with an original London Crash from 1967, and then with a Cheich.

In addition to having real historical meaning, all of these watches – from that unique early Omega tourbillon to the Cartier Cheich – had something in common: They were fresh to market. Like some of the recent million-dollar Rolexes, these watches from Omega and Cartier (and Journe and Dufour and Daniels) were newly found – they're exciting to everyone. Until that Cheich was discovered and sold by Sotheby's, the watch was practically mythical, with even hardcore Cartier collectors unsure they'd ever get a crack at owning one.

Same thing with the Crash: Only recently has money really started flowing into vintage Cartier. When one sold at Sotheby's last year, the catalog mentioned it was just the third original London Crash to be sold publicly in 25 years. A year later, two more fresh-to-market examples have shown up (another will be offered at Phillips New York in December).

By the way, it's not all up, up, up for these historical brands. I remember this unique, complicated Vacheron that passed at auction last year. The watch originally sold at Antiquorum back in 2005 for CHF 1.8 million when Vacheron produced the watch (and the auction was held) to celebrate Vacheron's 250th anniversary. Based on that, some had big expectations for the watch last year, but it turns out no one bought it. Here's the reality: You can't manufacture historical importance. It has to happen organically, sometimes over multiple decades. Also, let's be honest: for a million dollars, there are probably better-looking watches.

Collectors aren't stupid – especially when they're spending millions – and they can understand the real importance of an early Omega tourbillion or London Crash compared to a marketing gimmick like a one-off anniversary watch. Gimmicks rarely translate to millions of dollars, while real history can.

A few have done this by putting indies front and center in their catalogs. For example, in Phillips' first two Geneva auctions back in 2015, it offered a total of just six Journes. In its two Geneva sales this year, it'll offer 28 total. Part of this is practical: as it's become more difficult to source quality vintage watches, auction houses have looked elsewhere to fill their catalogs. On top of that, I'm sure it's just fun to be a market maker. Like, sure, 2499s are interesting, but that's been done at this point. Wouldn't it be exciting to tell the story of a guy like Christian Klings instead, a watchmaker who's made literally thirty-something watches over the past thirty years?

The Day-Date is another example. As we explained earlier this year when it crossed a million dollars for the first time, there are relatively few resources for really understanding the Day-Date. You know what helps though? An entire auction dedicated to Day-Dates. That's exactly what Phillips did in 2015 for its first thematic auction, putting together a sale of 60 Day-Dates, selling every single one for a huge number. Ben was practically breathless after that sale, writing, "Have you ever seen a Day-Date sell for $500,000? I have. In total honesty, tonight's Glamorous Day-Date sale exceeded all my expectations for final results, with the so-called 'Big Kahuna' selling for an absolutely mind-melting $507,000. For a Day-Date!"

A catalog like this adds to the body of research around a model and helps to establish a market, no doubt setting the stage for that "Rainbow Khanjar" to sell for $1.3 million this year.

With that, more watches are going to cross a million dollars at auction, and, to be honest, not all of them will end up being worth it. Some will be more marketing or hype than substance. And sure, some, like Parmegiani, will also lament that something like that platinum Patek 1415 might not sell for $6 million dollars anymore. But think of all the watches that are selling for millions nowadays – Journe, Dufour, Cartier, Omega. All represent different corners of watch collecting, corners that didn't exist 25 years ago. For collectors willing to research, seek out, and wait for truly important watches, the kind that are fresh-to-market and we never even knew about before, the next million-dollar watch is still waiting to be found.