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2005, Discussion Papers, Bulgarian National Bank
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38 pages
1 file
The existing literature on international financial crises has tended to focus on macroeconomic aspects, such as weaknesses in macroeconomic fundamentals and self-fulfilling expectations. More recent work has sought to fill in the gap in the microeconomic impact of financial crises. This paper utilizes a longitudinal household survey dataset for Bulgaria to examine differences in consumption expenditure from the year 1995 to 1997, during which time the economy experienced a financial crisis. Its primary finding is that the ...
This paper presents the results from a survey-based market research of Bulgarian households. The author of the study is trying to understand what changes of consumer behavior occur in times of economic crises in Bulgaria, do consumers change their buying patterns, how consumers attempt to avoid or diminish the negative results from economic crisis, etc. The research project is planned, organized and realized within the Scientific Research Program of The University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria. This paper discusses only a part of the research results and analysis. The rest of the research results will be published in a separate paper.
Boris Gurov , 2014
The present article falls mainly in the field of studies of household indebtedness. Indebtedness at the individual level is a relatively new phenomenon in Bulgaria brought about by the combination of high economic growth, the emergence of nmass consumption society, and the lack of experience of Bulgarian consumers with financial products. What makes the Bulgarian case rather interesting from an analytical point of view is the occurrence of the above events under a currency board. Combining statistical macro-data with original empirical data, this study is based on a review of the evolution of the Bulgarian credit system (in relation to the consumption of household credits) for the last decade and an empirical sociological survey on household debt in Bulgaria. This nationally representative survey, conducted in June 2009 among and also in 2013 among 1000 Bulgarian households, gave a rather unique insight into the financial practices and the socio-demographical profile of Bulgarian debtors. The article argues that in the Bulgarian case generation of endogenous risk in the credit system is due mainly to the particular configuration of rational strategies of creditors and debtors, the institutional framework (the lack of real means of intervention for the central bank in the context of a currency board), and the low level of income of Bulgarian households.
Izvestia Journal of the Union of Scientists - Varna. Economic Sciences Series, 2020
The assertion that household indebtedness is directly related to financial macrostability is considered an axiomatic rule in economic theory. The presence of a high level of indebtedness and sharp increases in its values are considered by experts as an indicator of an impending financial crisis and recession. The study of the dynamics and trends in household debt liabilities changes could answer many questions related to households' financial stability and the measures that regulators should take. This research issue is particularly relevant in the current economic crisis caused by the global Covid-19 pandemic. The analysis of the structural and value dimensions of household indebtedness provides the necessary basis for studying the financial sustainability of households, with which they enter this challenging period.
Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, 2015
In this paper, an econometric model of consumption in Bulgaria for the period 1997-2005 is constructed. The Error-Correction Model (ECM) approach is employed and long-run relationship between household consumption and income was found. The primary purpose of this empirical paper is to get a better understanding of the factors driving household consumption in Bulgaria and to estimate a consumption function to be used for medium-term forecasting. It is shown that all households behave in a Keynesian way, basing their consumption decisions on current income.
Focus on European Economic Integration, 2014
During the crisis period from 2008 to 2013 household disposable income deteriorated significantly in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE), forcing households to adjust their consumption plans. Against this background, the present paper sheds some light on households’ consumption smoothing behavior based on microdata supplied by the OeNB Euro Survey for ten countries in CESEE. We find that households reacted to stagnating and in some countries falling income mostly by cutting back on everyday consumption and reducing or postponing large expenditures, while other households coped by reducing the amounts they were setting aside as savings or by drawing on existing savings, overdrawing their current accounts and increasing work hours. Moreover, we find that macroeconomic forecasts by the European Commission, the wiiw and the OeNB are broadly in line with economic sentiment among CESEE households. Finally, Euro Survey results revealed that not all households were able to borr...
The IUP Journal of Applied Finance, 2021
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Mpra Paper, 2009
New econometric evidence is provided to identify the determinants of the rapid credit growth in Bulgaria and evaluate whether the credit boom has increased bank fragility, based on a panel data analysis of 30 Bulgarian banks over the 1999-2006 period. Employing Fixed effects and GMM estimation techniques to explore the link between credit and capital base in a partial adjustment framework, the study provides evidence for the growing risks of credit expansion and assesses the potential for banking distress in Bulgaria. The paper argues that after a period of severe credit crunch during 1997-1999, foreign-owned Bulgarian banks have financed a credit boom, especially since 2003 but this indicated growing risk in lending and increasing vulnerability to a systemic banking crisis as banks reduced their capital base and registered an increase in non-performing loans. Aggressive lending by less-capitalized banks without appropriate loan loss provisioning has also been verified empirically in a number of panel specifications. While well-capitalized banks have tended to expand credit in proportion to their capital base, banks with weak capital base engaged in excessive risk taking, and expanded credit despite growing ratio of nonperforming loans. Hence, the credit boom has come at the expense of increased banking fragility in Bulgaria, raising the probability of bank failure in the event of a downturn in global financial flows which became a disturbing reality in 2008.
Balkans Journal of Emerging Trends in Social Sciences
The objective of this paper is to study the influence of the international economic conjuncture on Bulgaria’s economic growth and business cycle. A vector autoregression (VAR) is employed to identify the main factors, which affect the growth and cyclicality of Bulgaria, the size and the direction of their impact. The cause-and-effect links between external economic conditions, the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) and the output gap of Bulgaria have been investigated. The external opportunities and threats facing the Bulgarian economy under a currency board arrangement and a membership in the European Union have been outlined. Recommendations have been made on appropriate policies for using external opportunities and overcoming external threats. The study results indicate that the main international determinants of Bulgaria’s economic growth and business cycle are macroeconomic policies in the Euro Area.
Economic history conducting investigations into financial crises of the long 20th century primarily analyses the permanent character of crises and their macroeconomic consequences. Statistics focuses, primarily, on the number of bank failures, corpo-rate bankruptcies, low macroeconomic output (gross domestic product [GDP]), decreased employment rates as well as increased inflation and government debts. Both economic history and statistics only deal with the decrease in household in-come and with losses in their net wealth positions afterwards. The authors of this study investigate the impact of the 2008 crisis on household income and their net wealth positions. They also examine options of restoring household income in Visegrad countries based on the data of NUTS 2 level (Nomenclature des unités territoriales statistiques) territorial units. The authors have used empirical analysis and statistical comparison for the change of the income and wealth situation of the Visegrad countries’ households. The results show that in the 2000s, the growth in the income gap between households slowed down, but after the crisis of 2008, the differentiation of the wealth of households in the region continued. As a result of this crisis, the income differences also started to rise again, which led to even wider gaps in income inequalities. Recovery of income and wealth has begun, but it will take at least 3-4 years to reach the pace of pre-crisis growth. In addition, its level could be permanently lower since households and credit institutions behave more cautiously than before the crisis.
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