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Nuclear and conventional deterrence are in fact quite different in terms of theory, practice, and impact. The differences play out in various ways depending on whether strategies of denial, punishment, or retaliation constitute the basis of the deterrent threat. The fact that battle outcomes with conventional weapons are so difficult to predict highlights the observation that conventional deterrent threats are " contest-able. " The contestability of conventional threats can raise doubts in the minds of those targeted by conventional deterrence concerning the capability of the side issuing deterrent threats to actually succeed. Con-testability is the Achilles' heel of conventional deterrence. By contrast, deterrent threats based on nuclear weapons are largely uncontestable. They offer an ideal deterrent capability because they tend to eliminate optimism about a positive war outcome. The fact that nuclear threats are uncontestable does not guarantee that they will be viewed as credible, while the contestable nature of conventional threats does not preclude their credibility.
Warfare evolves in a circular motion. Musketeers in a firing line once replaced massed column of pike-men only to be themselves replaced by Napoleon’s flying massed columns of bayonet-wielding lightly-armed musketeers. Similarly, all warfare began as what we now know as guerilla conflict. Now, guerilla warriors have returned to the fore, toppling empires, and testing superpowers across the globe. Military theorists, those favoring large conventional troop formations and sweeping field maneuvers, have stated that guerilla warfare is anathema to modern maneuver strategy, and that with the rise of transnational threats, the viability of the strategies espoused in Carl von Clausewitz’s masterpiece, On War, are fading. However, as a careful analysis of both Clausewitz and the history of guerilla warfare will show, that is simply a fallacy. Guerilla warfare theory, though seen by many in the western world as a strategy of the weak, in fact has a far longer history than modern maneuver warfare doctrine. Guerilla warfare not only draws its inspiration from Clausewitzian thought, it has been steadily adapted by various practitioners and today has successfully become part of and complimentary to maneuver warfare as the strategy for modern and near-future conflict.
You are your own worst enemy. You waste precious time dreaming of the future instead of engaging in the present. Cut your ties to the past; enter unknown territory. Place yourself on "death ground," where your back is against the wall and you have to fight like hell to get out alive. PART II ORGANIZATIONAL (TEAM) WARFARE 5 AVOID THE SNARES OF GROUPTHINK: THE COMMAND-AND-CONTROL STRATEGY The problem in leading any group is that people inevitably have their own agendas. You have to create a chain of command in which they do not feel constrained by your influence yet follow your lead. Create a sense of participation, but do not fall into groupthink--the irrationality of collective decision making. 6 SEGMENT YOUR FORCES: THE CONTROLLED-CHAOS STRATEGY The critical elements in war are speed and adaptability--the ability to move and make decisions faster than the enemy. Break your forces into independent groups that can operate on their own. Make your forces elusive and unstoppable by infusing them with the spirit of the campaign, giving them a mission to accomplish, and then letting them run. 7 TRANSFORM YOUR WAR INTO A CRUSADE: MORALE STRATEGIES The secret to motivating people and maintaining their morale is to get them to think less about themselves and more about the group. Involve them in a cause, a crusade against a hated enemy. Make them see their survival as tied to the success of the army as a whole. PART III DEFENSIVE WARFARE 8 PICK YOUR BATTLES CAREFULLY: THE PERFECT-ECONOMY STRATEGY We all have limitations--our energies and skills will take us only so far. You must know your limits and pick your battles carefully. Consider the hidden costs of a war: time lost, political goodwill squandered, an embittered enemy bent on revenge. Sometimes it is better to wait, to undermine your enemies covertly rather than hitting them straight on.
2017
Who is winning in the Taiwan Strait? What is China’s strategy towards North Korea? Today, the American media space is increasingly dominated by anti-Chinese headlines, alleging either Chinese aggression or non-action. However, do these stories see the full picture? Is it truly Chinese aggression, or simply self-protection and a different diplomatic strategy? Western-based American and Chinese military philosophies are fundamentally different, such that looking at Chinese decisions through a Western lens will not reveal fundamental truths behind the Great Wall. Since China embarked on the mission of national development in 1978, there has been a revival of interest in Sun Tzu and other classical Chinese military thought in China. To see beyond the wall, we look at Sun Tzu and his famous Art of War which has permeated Chinese military history for the last 2,500 years and continues to play a large role in strategic decision-making today. By replacing Aristotle and Machiavelli with Confucius and Sun Tzu, we are able to understand both Western and Chinese military styles. The West assumes that China measures it’s power strategy and model based on western notions and concepts of war. However, while western concepts of war are based on ideas developed during Greek and Roman empires, echoing strategies and logic from Aristotle and Machiavelli, Chinese concepts of war are based on philosophers such as Confucius and Sun Tzu, whose teachings hold several key differences in approach to war. According to Sun Tzu, it is in China’s best interest to avoid war. It is vital for the current U.S. administration to understand Chinese ancient philosophy when evaluating China’s diplomatic moves. While the U.S. views the Taiwan Strait situation as China sparring for military power and capabilities, China views the situation in their favor based on strategy, encirclement and terrain. The ancient game of wei qi is being used as a model for China’s encirclement by using the string of pearls in the Indian Ocean and military action in the South China Sea. Chinese foreign policy is directed by the concept of ‘shi’, present and future energies used for long-term strategic planning. Implementing ancient Chinese thought to game theory, we are able to understand that China will naturally strive to a state of perfect information, as told from Sun Tzu’s text in understanding the opponent’s plan. Based on mutual interdependence, game theory helps isolate principles of abstract decision-making when the outcome of people’s choices depends on what others decide. Applying Sun Tzu thought to game theory places a strong advantage of moving away from simultaneous games and thus shifting to sequential ones. Cyber hacking should not come as a mystery to the West, as the Chinese are striving for a state of perfect information. These key differences can be seen through Sun Tzu’s The Art of War and the popular Chinese strategic game similar to chess called wei qi. China’s objective of understanding the opponent thoroughly, otherwise known as cultural salience, is an important strategic advantage described in “The Art of War”. It is virtually impossible and extremely dangerous to play the game of wei qi with a chess mindset. Different from western thought, Chinese thought stresses subtlety, indirection, and the patient accumulation of relative advantage.
The only way we can ever gain insight into the extinct cultures of the Mississippian period is by examining archaeological and ethnohistorical data. Through careful scientific detective work and analysis we can get a glimpse of some aspects of these people's societies. Some of the evidence is clear, well understood, and generally agreed upon by scholars. Other evidence is less clearly understood and is subject to interpretation and educated guesses. After all of evidence is weighed, more questions remain than are answered.
We advance the field of research involving modeling opponents in interesting adversarial environments: environments in which equilibrium strategies are intractable to calculate or undesirable to use. We motivate the need for opponent models in such environments by showing how successful opponent modeling agents can exploit nonequilibrium strategies and strategies using equilibrium approximations. We develop a new, flexible measurement which can be used to quantify how well our model can predict the opponent's behavior independently from the performance of the agent in which it resides. We show how this metric can be used to find areas of model improvement that would otherwise have remained undiscovered and demonstrate the technique for evaluating opponent model quality in the poker domain. We introduce the idea of performance bounds for classes of opponent models, present a method for calculating them, and show how these bounds are a function of only the environment and thus inv...
The problem in leading any group is that people inevitably have their own agendas. You have to create a chain of command in which they do not feel constrained by your influence yet follow your lead. Create a sense of participation, but do not fall into groupthink--the irrationality of collective decision making.
Joint Force Quarterly 75 (October 2014), 77-83.
The Chinese strategist Sun Tzu offers a very different vision of war from that known in the Western tradition. Sun Tzu’s work is influenced by the Taoist faith (Lonsdale, 2008: 47). For Sun Tzu war is a necessary evil that represents a departure from cosmic harmony. (Ibid). Western tradition is about consecutive conquests of evil and backwardness through absolute victories according to the just war theory. Sun Tzu presents a contrasting approach to the one introduced by Clausewitz with emphasis on violent clashes of arms and decisive victory (Ibid.) “When the Western tradition prized the decisive clash of forces emphasising feats of heroism, the Chinese ideal stressed subtlety, indirection, and the patient accumulation of relative advantage.” (Kissinger, 2011: 23). This paper will attempt to show that although Clausewitz’s work remains “not simply the greatest but the only truly great book on war” there are still plenty of lessons to be learned from the ancient Chinese military philosopher. Some of these lessons such as elegance, balance and flexibility could be applied in the context of present-day conflicts. If we follow some of the teachings of the great, Chinese sage we may find that there is a timeless dimension to his knowledge that could be, to some degree, applied to modern conflicts, not to increase deception in war; but rather to lead to more humane victories, end protracted wars of attrition, develop respect for the enemy while encouraging adoption of win-win solutions that make peace mutually acceptable and desirable. Thereby showing, even the greatest of our enemies some alternative pathways to change. This is the power of persuasive diplomacy, to bring about a consensual solution since ultimately the way you win matters not only that you win. Sunzi pointed out that being skilled at making war requires the commander to know his enemy. While the ruthlessness of the Clausewitzian military mindset is encapsulated in the words of the main character of the Ender's Game series, when Ender says, "In the moment when I truly understand my enemy, understand him well enough to defeat him, then in that very moment I also... I think it is impossible to really understand somebody, what they want, what they believe, and not love them the way they love themselves. And then, in that very moment when I love them... I destroy them." Ender was both loving enough to know his enemies and ruthless enough to defeat them. His empathy and compassion allowed him to think like his enemies anticipating their actions. Ender's ruthlessness drove him to defeat his enemies in ways they could not recover from. But if so, he was guided not by love, but by stubborn doggedness or violent vengeance. Ender possessed a genial, tremendous strategic-military talent, but it was a double-edged sword, he is a hero only to his lieutenants not in his own eyes. Although he saved the Earth and the human species, he lost morally because his emotions took charge. As a consequence, he has forgotten the proportionality of response. As a result of Ender's Clausewitzian victory, an entire race has been annihilated through genocide (in this case, extraterrestrial species, so that would be xenocide). He killed thinking that his space campaign was a game. Afterwards, he has regretted his decision. He admitted that had he known that it was not a game he would not have done it. Clausewitzian victory reveals the brutal ways of war and how it destroys soldiers' conscience and innocence by turning them into ruthless killing machines without any compassion or deeper thought process. Gandhi said that "an eye for an eye would make the whole world blind." Thus, it seems that tolerance is the highest degree of strength and desire to take revenge is the first sign of weakness. Militarism and revanchism usually lead to war which in the extreme becomes a mechanical mass murder process causing unnecessary human suffering. War and cruelty were the fate and occupation of many ruthless dignitaries and conquerors, e.g.: Attila the Hun, Genghis Khan or Alexander the Great. Mostly, they were cold, heartless killers desiring nothing but conquest and fame. Post factum they regretted their decisions. Alexander, for instance, came to regret the destruction that many of his invasions caused. Coming across the plundered tomb of Cyrus the Great in Pasargad near Persepolis, he was much distressed by what he found and immediately ordered repairs to be made. The most difficult task for any leader who aspires to change the world is both to win the support of the peoples, but more importantly, to win in the race with time. Retrospectively, people had to appreciate all the wonderful works the leader has initiated even if they were not fully completed. This is a considerable challenge for contemporary leaders because often they wrongly choose decisions that are in essence not humanistic and not sufficiently inclusive, i.e. taking into account the common good or the well-being of the entire planet. Most contemporary political leaders are clearly unable to address key critical issues including climate change. Such leaders focus on current issues, often discounting the future of the children, they are beholden to tribal loyalties, lack understanding of the complexity of issues posed by surging science and technology (Dror, 2017: 19). Many leaders are also morally corrupt giving more weight to staying in power, to materialistic values and to enriching themselves and their close families rather than appreciating the urgency of the global challenges (Ibid.). To address global issues effectively such leaders need to overcome political divides and put into action the idea of bipartisanship what requires a degree of farsightedness, long-term thinking and abandonment of egoism, tribalism and fame. In some cases, this may seem like a Herculean effort, but nothing is impossible when motivation is soaring and there is hope to pursue our dreams. It is achievable, but requires consistency and sticking to the leader's guiding principles. To solve the world's biggest problems requires also a measure of unity within civilisation and not only paying attention to the personal character traits of individual leaders, what visits they make and what cars they travel in. These global challenges seem to be like a Rubik's Cube-like puzzle that could be solved if only people could find determination and if leaders or their advisers could swivel the right blocks of the ultimate solution in the right order and time sequence. Reducing food waste, using urban gardening, adopting better supply chains and popularising solar-powered air travel are small pieces in this puzzle. Together, they showcase how innovative technologies can emerge and pave the way for a wider change in sustainability. The top priority is to upgrade the grand-policy crafting qualities of leaders so they could abandon their ego-centred character traits and equip themselves with the sensitivity towards the Earth - recognition of the raison d' humanite and the need to build bipartisan solutions for foreign policy challenges what hopefully could result in avoiding chaos (Dror, 2002). Civilisation needs to unite and one hopeful idea is that the change-enabling force is in the collective power of millions of voices calling for change to shape political outcomes. Therefore, this paper treats the Chinese sage's approach to be much more civilised and more compassionate than the Clausewitzain approach. If humanity wants to transition from a planetary species to an interstellar species while ushering an age of exploration and expansion on an unimaginable scale, then we must eliminate short-term political gains and conflicts between countries or block of countries (alliances) that will not matter in the long-run, in categories of the bigger picture for the planetary preservation. If this assumption is true, namely that to progress to a more advanced level of civilisation (Kardashev Scale) humanity must eliminate what sets us apart and focus attention on unity in the name of solving common challenges, then ancient Chinese ideas alongside with Western ideas could help us to build a more sustainable civilisation, which will be more peaceful. Humanity must find a ways to end wars and build empires of peace. Innovation and creativity could help along the way since they are the wellspring of improvements in a society. The future commander must be skilled in peace since in the Nuclear Age, the true enemy is war. When human imagination is joined by intelligence magical things can happen, the two have proved to be engines of progress leading to many breakthroughs and innovations. So if humanity solves the challenges that are necessary to be solved while uniting the East and the West, the North and the South, then we could potentially become the first species in the universe to create a structure with the scope of the star. If we do it, the only limitation left will be our imagination.
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