What Clemson win over SMU means for Alabama’s CFP chances

Let the debate officially begin.

Alabama football or SMU?

That discussion existed before the Mustangs played Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Many could foresaw the debate happening. Now it’s official. The final College Football Playoff spot figures to go to either the Crimson Tide (9-3) or SMU (11-2).

The Mustangs could have made it simple and beat the Tigers on Saturday. That would have kept SMU at No. 8 and Alabama at No. 11, both firmly in the 12-team playoff field. But Clemson took the ACC’s automatic bid by winning the conference 34-31 on a last-second field goal and will be one of the 12 teams, no matter where the committee ranks the Tigers on Sunday.

So, Clemson is in, and Alabama and SMU will have to wait until 11 a.m. CT on Sunday to find out if they get to play for a national championship.

SMU winning would have been the simpler and easier way for Alabama to make the CFP again. The Allstate playoff predictor Friday gave Alabama a 99.7% chance to make the CFP with an SMU win.

With a Clemson win? 72%.

Not as good, but certainly possible.

CFP chair Warde Manuel left the door open for it Tuesday. He was asked on the media teleconference if SMU could drop below Alabama with a loss to Clemson.

“Potentially, yes,” Manuel said.

It wouldn’t be the first time the CFP committee penalized a team for losing its conference championship game. Look to 2023; Georgia was undefeated heading into its game against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide won, snuck into the four-team playoff, and Georgia didn’t make it.

So there’s precedent, albeit in a different format.

That doesn’t mean it will happen again. But it could.

The committee also has data points it can cite if it so chooses to argue Alabama’s case. Going into Saturday, Alabama had the No. 17 strength of schedule, per ESPN. SMU entered with the No. 75 strength of schedule. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide is 3-1 in games against teams ranked right now in the CFP top 25. SMU fell to 0-2 with the loss to Clemson.

If the committee decides it wants to put SMU into the playoff, the committee could cite that the Mustangs won 11 games compared to Alabama’s nine. The committee could also decide it doesn’t want to penalize a team for playing its conference game when Alabama was sitting at home not playing in its conference championship game.

What hurts Alabama perhaps the most is that SMU didn’t lose by much in the conference game. Only by three, losing on a 56-yard field goal. The committee could have cited the Mustangs losing a blowout as a reason to leave SMU out. But the Mustangs fought back from a deficit and made a game of it, down to the final seconds.

Clemson defeating SMU in a close game doesn’t mean Alabama’s out of the CFP for sure, but it sure made Sunday a whole lot more interesting and unpredictable.

Nick Kelly is an Alabama beat writer for AL.com and the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on X and Instagram.