The selection of a launch vehicle should not depend on any single vehicle attribute (i.e., price,... more The selection of a launch vehicle should not depend on any single vehicle attribute (i.e., price, reliability, availability, insurance rate, final payload placement accuracy, etc.), but rather on the effect of the interaction of multiple vehicle attributes in combination with payload configuration and sparing/maintenance strategy. For commercial organizations, selection decisions should be based on performance measures such as ROI and risk. For government operations, selections should be based on measures such as present value of life cycle cost in combination with availability constraints. Methods for analyzing launch vehicle and related choices are described together with parametric results illustrating important tradeoffs
Satellite solar power (SSP) has been suggested as an alternative to terrestrial energy resources ... more Satellite solar power (SSP) has been suggested as an alternative to terrestrial energy resources for electricity generation. In this study, we consider the market for electricity from the present to 2020, roughly the year when many experts expect SSP to be technically achievable. We identify several key challenges for SSP in competing with conventional electricity generation in developed and developing countries, discuss the role of market and economic analysis as technical development of SSP continues during the coming years, and suggest future research directions to improve understanding of the potential economic viability of SSP.
The selection of a launch vehicle should not depend on any single vehicle attribute (i.e., price,... more The selection of a launch vehicle should not depend on any single vehicle attribute (i.e., price, reliability, availability, insurance rate, final payload placement accuracy, etc.), but rather on the effect of the interaction of multiple vehicle attributes in combination with payload configuration and sparing/maintenance strategy. For commercial organizations, selection decisions should be based on performance measures such as ROI and risk. For government operations, selections should be based on measures such as present value of life cycle cost in combination with availability constraints. Methods for analyzing launch vehicle and related choices are described together with parametric results illustrating important tradeoffs.
Many government-sponsored applied research, development, demonstration and incentive programs are... more Many government-sponsored applied research, development, demonstration and incentive programs are specifically undertaken to develop technology or create an environment that will lead to commercial ventures which will be in the public interest. The current Administration's emphasis on commerciali zation has brought to the forefront joint endeavor or government/industry cooperative agreements and proposals for divesting operational capabilities to the private sector. The common thread between all these activities is the need for government agencies to plan and evaluate the private sector business ventures that may result. In the case of the joint endeavor agreements and divestiture situations, the evaluation of private sector business ventures is necessary to establish government negotiating posi tions. This paper briefly summarizes private sector finan cial performance measures and shows how govern ment actions can affect private sector investment decisions through a reducti...
Many government-sponsored applied research, development, demonstration and incentive programs are... more Many government-sponsored applied research, development, demonstration and incentive programs are specifically undertaken to develop technology or create an environment that will lead to commercial ventures which will be in the public interest. The current Administration's emphasis on commerciali zation has brought to the forefront joint endeavor or government/industry cooperative agreements and proposals for divesting operational capabilities to the private sector. The common thread between all these activities is the need for government agencies to plan and evaluate the private sector business ventures that may result. In the case of the joint endeavor agreements and divestiture situations, the evaluation of private sector business ventures is necessary to establish government negotiating posi tions. This paper briefly summarizes private sector finan cial performance measures and shows how govern ment actions can affect private sector investment decisions through a reducti...
These papers comprise a peer-review selection of presentations by authors from NASA, LPI industry... more These papers comprise a peer-review selection of presentations by authors from NASA, LPI industry, and academia at the Second Conference (April 1988) on Lunar Bases and Space Activities of the 21st Century, sponsored by the NASA Office of Exploration and the Lunar Planetary Institute. These papers go into more technical depth than did those published from the first NASA-sponsored symposium on the topic, held in 1984. Session topics covered by this volume include (1) design and operation of transportation systems to, in orbit around, and on the Moon, (2) lunar base site selection, (3) design, architecture, construction, and operation of lunar bases and human habitats, and (4) lunar-based scientific research and experimentation in astronomy, exobiology, and lunar geology. Separate abstracts have been prepared for articles from this report.
NASA is planning a demonstration experiment (to be initiated in late 1977) to show that frost and... more NASA is planning a demonstration experiment (to be initiated in late 1977) to show that frost and freeze prediction improvements are possible utilizing timely Synchronous Meteorological Satellite (SMS/GOES) temperature measurements and that this information can affect Florida citrus grower operations and decisions so as to significantly reduce the cost for frost and freeze protection and crop losses. As part of this effort, ECON, Inc. has designed and conducted the first phase of an economic experiment which will monitor citrus growers' decisions, actions, costs and losses, and meteorological forecasts and actual weather events and will establish the economic benefits of improved temperature forecasts. The economic experiment is designed to measure the change in annual protection costs and crop losses which are the direct result of improved temperature forecasts. To estimate the benefits that may result from improved temperature forecasting capability, control and test groups ha...
Factors to be considered when selecting a launch vehicle are examined. The importance of assessin... more Factors to be considered when selecting a launch vehicle are examined. The importance of assessing the interaction of multiple vehicle attributes in combination with payload configuration and sparing/maintenance strategy, rather than making a decision on the basis of any single vehicle attribute, is emphasized. Implementation of this recommendation requires effective simulation modeling of launch vehicles and satellite systems. Methods for analyzing launch vehicle and related choices are described, and some important tradeoffs are illustrated.
Because of the need to perform comparisons between transportation systems that are likely to have... more Because of the need to perform comparisons between transportation systems that are likely to have significantly different levels of risk, both because of differing degrees of freedom in achieving desired performance levels and their different states of development and utilization, an approach has been developed for performing early comparisons of transportation architectures explicitly taking into account quantitative measures of uncertainty and resulting risk. The approach considers the uncertainty associated with the achievement of technology goals, the effect that the achieved level of technology will have on transportation system performance and the relationship between transportation system performance/capability and the ability to accommodate variations in payload mass. The consequences of system performance are developed in terms of expected values and associated standard deviations of nonrecurring, recurring and the present value of transportation system life cycle cost. Typ...
E frequently think of themselves as problem solvers. Indeed, engineers are taught problem-solving... more E frequently think of themselves as problem solvers. Indeed, engineers are taught problem-solving skills as the major element of their education and, throughout their lives, they seek to hone and improve these skills. To be sure, problem-solving capabilities are important to engineering. Yet, it is the contention of this chapter that problem solving is not the principal activity of engineering; rather it is decision making, and to accept this premise opens a door to a vast new array of engineering skills that are amenable to being taught. An approach to engineering is discussed that will seem foreign to many experienced engineers. First, a set of definitions is presented. This is necessary in order to discuss the subject matter of the chapter clearly. Not all readers will agree with these definitions, nor is it the objective here to seek agreement. But the definitions presented are crisp and unambiguous, and they will enable the presentation of new concepts.
S the 1960s, economists have tried to measure the economic impact of space programs with a variet... more S the 1960s, economists have tried to measure the economic impact of space programs with a variety of different tools. The level of expenditure these programs involve is so high that public opinion is increasingly demanding an assessment of the tangible benefits to the economy in return for the considerable sums that have been invested. Thus, as it is largely described by the article of Hertzfeld in the present book ("Measuring Returns to Space R&D), macroeconomic analysis combined with econometric tools have been applied to assess the global impact of space expenditures [macroeconomic modeling, influence of research and development (R&D) expenditures on a macroeconomic production function, etc.]. A different approach was used to evaluate the economic activity and the employment directly induced by space programs in the space industry and its suppliers (input-output analysis, use of economic multiplier). Other studies focused on the impact of the use of meteorological or communication satellites on weather forecast or activities related to telecommunication, as well as on the evaluation of space technology transfer policy (by the analysis of some of the markets created around or "fertilized" by space technologies). This article is part of the methodological debate on the economic effects of large space programs. It aims to present a methodology designed by the Bureau d'Economie Theorique et Appliquee of the University of Strasbourg (BETA) in order to evaluate what we consider to be the most specific economic effects of those programs: the spinoff effects.
The selection of a launch vehicle should not depend on any single vehicle attribute (i.e., price,... more The selection of a launch vehicle should not depend on any single vehicle attribute (i.e., price, reliability, availability, insurance rate, final payload placement accuracy, etc.), but rather on the effect of the interaction of multiple vehicle attributes in combination with payload configuration and sparing/maintenance strategy. For commercial organizations, selection decisions should be based on performance measures such as ROI and risk. For government operations, selections should be based on measures such as present value of life cycle cost in combination with availability constraints. Methods for analyzing launch vehicle and related choices are described together with parametric results illustrating important tradeoffs
Satellite solar power (SSP) has been suggested as an alternative to terrestrial energy resources ... more Satellite solar power (SSP) has been suggested as an alternative to terrestrial energy resources for electricity generation. In this study, we consider the market for electricity from the present to 2020, roughly the year when many experts expect SSP to be technically achievable. We identify several key challenges for SSP in competing with conventional electricity generation in developed and developing countries, discuss the role of market and economic analysis as technical development of SSP continues during the coming years, and suggest future research directions to improve understanding of the potential economic viability of SSP.
The selection of a launch vehicle should not depend on any single vehicle attribute (i.e., price,... more The selection of a launch vehicle should not depend on any single vehicle attribute (i.e., price, reliability, availability, insurance rate, final payload placement accuracy, etc.), but rather on the effect of the interaction of multiple vehicle attributes in combination with payload configuration and sparing/maintenance strategy. For commercial organizations, selection decisions should be based on performance measures such as ROI and risk. For government operations, selections should be based on measures such as present value of life cycle cost in combination with availability constraints. Methods for analyzing launch vehicle and related choices are described together with parametric results illustrating important tradeoffs.
Many government-sponsored applied research, development, demonstration and incentive programs are... more Many government-sponsored applied research, development, demonstration and incentive programs are specifically undertaken to develop technology or create an environment that will lead to commercial ventures which will be in the public interest. The current Administration's emphasis on commerciali zation has brought to the forefront joint endeavor or government/industry cooperative agreements and proposals for divesting operational capabilities to the private sector. The common thread between all these activities is the need for government agencies to plan and evaluate the private sector business ventures that may result. In the case of the joint endeavor agreements and divestiture situations, the evaluation of private sector business ventures is necessary to establish government negotiating posi tions. This paper briefly summarizes private sector finan cial performance measures and shows how govern ment actions can affect private sector investment decisions through a reducti...
Many government-sponsored applied research, development, demonstration and incentive programs are... more Many government-sponsored applied research, development, demonstration and incentive programs are specifically undertaken to develop technology or create an environment that will lead to commercial ventures which will be in the public interest. The current Administration's emphasis on commerciali zation has brought to the forefront joint endeavor or government/industry cooperative agreements and proposals for divesting operational capabilities to the private sector. The common thread between all these activities is the need for government agencies to plan and evaluate the private sector business ventures that may result. In the case of the joint endeavor agreements and divestiture situations, the evaluation of private sector business ventures is necessary to establish government negotiating posi tions. This paper briefly summarizes private sector finan cial performance measures and shows how govern ment actions can affect private sector investment decisions through a reducti...
These papers comprise a peer-review selection of presentations by authors from NASA, LPI industry... more These papers comprise a peer-review selection of presentations by authors from NASA, LPI industry, and academia at the Second Conference (April 1988) on Lunar Bases and Space Activities of the 21st Century, sponsored by the NASA Office of Exploration and the Lunar Planetary Institute. These papers go into more technical depth than did those published from the first NASA-sponsored symposium on the topic, held in 1984. Session topics covered by this volume include (1) design and operation of transportation systems to, in orbit around, and on the Moon, (2) lunar base site selection, (3) design, architecture, construction, and operation of lunar bases and human habitats, and (4) lunar-based scientific research and experimentation in astronomy, exobiology, and lunar geology. Separate abstracts have been prepared for articles from this report.
NASA is planning a demonstration experiment (to be initiated in late 1977) to show that frost and... more NASA is planning a demonstration experiment (to be initiated in late 1977) to show that frost and freeze prediction improvements are possible utilizing timely Synchronous Meteorological Satellite (SMS/GOES) temperature measurements and that this information can affect Florida citrus grower operations and decisions so as to significantly reduce the cost for frost and freeze protection and crop losses. As part of this effort, ECON, Inc. has designed and conducted the first phase of an economic experiment which will monitor citrus growers' decisions, actions, costs and losses, and meteorological forecasts and actual weather events and will establish the economic benefits of improved temperature forecasts. The economic experiment is designed to measure the change in annual protection costs and crop losses which are the direct result of improved temperature forecasts. To estimate the benefits that may result from improved temperature forecasting capability, control and test groups ha...
Factors to be considered when selecting a launch vehicle are examined. The importance of assessin... more Factors to be considered when selecting a launch vehicle are examined. The importance of assessing the interaction of multiple vehicle attributes in combination with payload configuration and sparing/maintenance strategy, rather than making a decision on the basis of any single vehicle attribute, is emphasized. Implementation of this recommendation requires effective simulation modeling of launch vehicles and satellite systems. Methods for analyzing launch vehicle and related choices are described, and some important tradeoffs are illustrated.
Because of the need to perform comparisons between transportation systems that are likely to have... more Because of the need to perform comparisons between transportation systems that are likely to have significantly different levels of risk, both because of differing degrees of freedom in achieving desired performance levels and their different states of development and utilization, an approach has been developed for performing early comparisons of transportation architectures explicitly taking into account quantitative measures of uncertainty and resulting risk. The approach considers the uncertainty associated with the achievement of technology goals, the effect that the achieved level of technology will have on transportation system performance and the relationship between transportation system performance/capability and the ability to accommodate variations in payload mass. The consequences of system performance are developed in terms of expected values and associated standard deviations of nonrecurring, recurring and the present value of transportation system life cycle cost. Typ...
E frequently think of themselves as problem solvers. Indeed, engineers are taught problem-solving... more E frequently think of themselves as problem solvers. Indeed, engineers are taught problem-solving skills as the major element of their education and, throughout their lives, they seek to hone and improve these skills. To be sure, problem-solving capabilities are important to engineering. Yet, it is the contention of this chapter that problem solving is not the principal activity of engineering; rather it is decision making, and to accept this premise opens a door to a vast new array of engineering skills that are amenable to being taught. An approach to engineering is discussed that will seem foreign to many experienced engineers. First, a set of definitions is presented. This is necessary in order to discuss the subject matter of the chapter clearly. Not all readers will agree with these definitions, nor is it the objective here to seek agreement. But the definitions presented are crisp and unambiguous, and they will enable the presentation of new concepts.
S the 1960s, economists have tried to measure the economic impact of space programs with a variet... more S the 1960s, economists have tried to measure the economic impact of space programs with a variety of different tools. The level of expenditure these programs involve is so high that public opinion is increasingly demanding an assessment of the tangible benefits to the economy in return for the considerable sums that have been invested. Thus, as it is largely described by the article of Hertzfeld in the present book ("Measuring Returns to Space R&D), macroeconomic analysis combined with econometric tools have been applied to assess the global impact of space expenditures [macroeconomic modeling, influence of research and development (R&D) expenditures on a macroeconomic production function, etc.]. A different approach was used to evaluate the economic activity and the employment directly induced by space programs in the space industry and its suppliers (input-output analysis, use of economic multiplier). Other studies focused on the impact of the use of meteorological or communication satellites on weather forecast or activities related to telecommunication, as well as on the evaluation of space technology transfer policy (by the analysis of some of the markets created around or "fertilized" by space technologies). This article is part of the methodological debate on the economic effects of large space programs. It aims to present a methodology designed by the Bureau d'Economie Theorique et Appliquee of the University of Strasbourg (BETA) in order to evaluate what we consider to be the most specific economic effects of those programs: the spinoff effects.
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