W raporcie zaprezentowane zostały wyniki badań przeprowadzonych na próbie 643 Polaków. Celem bada... more W raporcie zaprezentowane zostały wyniki badań przeprowadzonych na próbie 643 Polaków. Celem badań było poznanie ogólnej wiedzy respondentów w zakresie rozwoju zastosowania robotów humanoidalnych do opieki nad osobami starszymi, skłonności do ich wykorzystywania, postrzeganych zagrożeń i zaufania do analizowanej technologii. Główną przesłanką badań było poszukiwanie odpowiedzi na pytania: Czy roboty humanoidalne wyposażone w sztuczną inteligencję mogą być w przyszłości wykorzystywane do opieki nad osobami starszymi? Źródłem jakich zagrożeń mogą być humanoidy opiekujące się osobami starszymi? Jakie czynniki o charakterze marketingowym będą determinowały rozwój technologii? Na jakie bariery o charakterze etycznym narażeni są użytkownicy rozwiązań? Co decyduje o funkcjonalności zastosowania technologii? Czy człowiek może zaufać robotowi?
The purpose of the paper is to present the structural analysis as an instrument of identification... more The purpose of the paper is to present the structural analysis as an instrument of identification and classification of factors influencing the development of a particular technology. The paper discusses the theoretical basis of the method and presents its practical implications in the form of a case study of a project entitled “Technological Foresight «NT FOR Podlaskie 2020». Regional Strategy of Nanotechnology Development”. The aim of the described project was to find answers to the following questions: What are the key drivers of nanotechnology development in Podlaskie region (Poland) in the perspective of year 2020? What are the interrelations between these drivers? For the research purposes of the article structural analysis was used.
Methodology. STEEPVL analysis is primarily deployed in technological foresight in order to identi... more Methodology. STEEPVL analysis is primarily deployed in technological foresight in order to identify external factors (driving forces) influencing the development of a studied technology (Nazarko 2011). It is essentially a heuristic method in which expert knowledge is distilled with help of brainstorming, moderated discussion, surveys and bibliometrics. In the selection of experts for the study, the three-faceted triangulation principle was observed. Firstly, the engaged experts represent diverse professional backgrounds, different genders and ages (expert triangulation). Secondly, engaged experts and information sources used represented various institutions and diverse viewpoints (data triangulation). Thirdly, engaged experts represented diverse research fields (theoretical triangulation) (Kononiuk and Nazarko, 2013).
Methodology. SWOT analysis is commonly used in foresight studies as an instrument of categorizing... more Methodology. SWOT analysis is commonly used in foresight studies as an instrument of categorizing significant factors that determine the development of a particular phenomenon or an organization. In its classical form, SWOT analysis is based on the division of phenomena and states that influence the development of an organization into strengths and weaknesses located inside the organization as well as the opportunities and threats located outside the organization (Chermack and Kasshanna, 2007). As a result of such division, a four-field SWOT diagram is obtained. An extended SWOT analysis model that includes three criteria of factor division is proposed in the literature (Sztando, 2006). These criteria are: occurrence in time (existing or potential), source of origin (from inside of the system or from the environment), nature of influence (favourable or unfavourable). Such division leads to the creation of an eight-field SWOT diagram. In the opinion of the paper authors, such approac...
Przedsiewziecie "Narodowy Program Foresight - wdrozenie wynikow" realizowane na zleceni... more Przedsiewziecie "Narodowy Program Foresight - wdrozenie wynikow" realizowane na zlecenie Ministerstwa Nauki i Szkolnictwa Wyzszego (MNISW) w ramach projektu systemowego nr UDA-POIG.01.01.03-00-001/08-00 Wsparcie systemu zarządzania badaniami naukowymi oraz ich wynikami, w ramach Priorytetu I, Dzialania 1.1, Poddzialania 1.1.3, Programu Operacyjnego Innowacyjna Gospodarka, 2007-2013.
Interdisciplinarity, which is a part of the research paradigm in all fields of science constitute... more Interdisciplinarity, which is a part of the research paradigm in all fields of science constitutes a real challenge in research. It manifests itself particularly in the diversity of the undertaken research topics, in the variety of the adopted research approaches (theoretical, methodological, normative, empirical-descriptive), and in the flexibility and the ability to see both the scientific problems as well as the economic and social needs. The ability to cross the boundaries between the fields of technical and social sciences, to identify problems and to seek solutions at the frontiers of scientific disciplines, the eagerness to work in research teams diverse in terms of competence, age, skills, creating conditions for both the personal development and that of individual team members, breaking the stereotypical ways of thinking in the process of solving problems and anticipating future events are all features of an academic culture nurtured by Professor Joanicjusz Nazarko. His pro...
T he rapid transformation of the socioeconomic, political, and technological context predetermine... more T he rapid transformation of the socioeconomic, political, and technological context predetermines changes in the expectations for higher education institutions which face numerous profound challenges. In order to survive and develop under changing conditions, universities need to drastically rethink their development strategies. This paper substantiates the effectiveness of using foresight for these purposes, which is confirmed by the experience of a project on the development of scenarios for the Faculty Кeywords: foresight; scenarios; higher education institution; strategy; management; engineering. of Engineering Management (FEM) at Bialystok Technical University (Poland) for the period up to 2035. This enquiry has resulted in compiling four alternative visions for FEM. By analyzing them one can gain valuable knowledge on both preferable and lessfavored alternatives, which on the one hand suggest which actions may lead to their realization, and on the other, indicate specific actions that may lead to the abandonment of undesirable paths in favor of the most conducive vision.
Ageing population poses new social, technological, and research challenges. It is anticipated tha... more Ageing population poses new social, technological, and research challenges. It is anticipated that, by 2080, Poland will be in the group of counties that will have one-third of their population aged over 65. Different strategies aim at dealing with the mentioned demographic challenge, including widespread use of humanoids in the care of older people. As this research was the first of its kind in Poland, this article aims to identify the perceived key benefits that could shape positive attitudes toward humanoids in the care of older people. Based on the specific attributes of a humanoid technology, the model hypothesizes that an attitude toward a technology can be directly shaped by four kinds of perceived benefits, namely an impact on the quality of life, functional aspects, ethical problems, and a social impact. Also, a theoretical model assumes that a user attitude toward a humanoid technology is predicted to have an indirect influence on the future intended use. A survey method w...
The multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) utility-determining techniques are considered to be ... more The multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) utility-determining techniques are considered to be new development techniques that have been recently presented, extended and used by some scholars. In the current work, an attempt is made to present a systematic review of methodologies and applications of the MCDM utilitydetermining techniques discussed in recent years. The researchers reviewed 86 papers, describing the use of the MCDM utility-determining techniques, which were published in the period 2004-2015 in more than 42 scientific journals. They mainly refer to the area of management and are extracted from online databases, such as Web of Science, Scopus and Google Scholar. According to the classification used by the researchers, the papers were grouped based on the five main MCDM utility-determining techniques, including stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA), the weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS), the additive ratio assessment (ARAS), the method of complex proportional assessment (COPRAS), multi-objective optimisation by ratio analysis (MOORA) and MULTIMOORA (MOORA plus a full multiplicative form). Furthermore, the papers were categorised taking into account their authors, publication date, journal name, the technique and method used, research objectives, research gap and problem, solution and modelling and, finally, the results and findings. The results of this study show that, in 2013, scholars published more papers on the MCDM utility-determining techniques than in other years. It is also worth noting that a group of COPRAS methods (COPRAS-Grey and COPRAS-Fuzzy) was ranked number one among the methods used in this area. With regard to journals, the Journal of Civil Engineering and Management was ranked first in the list of journals, which contributed to this review.
Technology development is determined by many factors which have different functions in the socioe... more Technology development is determined by many factors which have different functions in the socioeconomic system. Knowledge and skills in the process of selection of key factors and assign roles to other factors, plays an important part from the perspective of management of technologies. The purpose of the paper is to present the structural analysis as an instrument of identification and classification of factors influencing the development of a particular technology. The paper discusses the theoretical basis of the method and presents its practical implications in the form of a case study of a project entitled "Technological Foresight «NT FOR Podlaskie 2020». Regional Strategy of Nanotechnology Development". The aim of the described project was to find answers to the following questions: What are the key drivers of nanotechnology development in Podlaskie region (Poland) in the perspective of year 2020? What are the interrelations between these drivers? For the research purposes of the article structural analysis was used. The applied method allowed eventually to the select two main factors that determine the development of the analyzed technologies which formed the basis for creating development scenarios.
The purpose of the paper is to present the methodological basis and an example of factor analysis... more The purpose of the paper is to present the methodological basis and an example of factor analysis supporting STEEPVL analysis in the identification of driving forces of technology development in foresight studies. The proposed approach allows for the identification of a limited number of the most significant driving forces of technology development. The practical implications of the methodological considerations are presented in the paper in a form of a case study describing the combination of STEEPVL and factor analysis in the project entitled "Technological Foresight «NT FOR Podlaskie 2020». Regional Strategy of Nanotechnology Development".
The main purpose of the paper is to present the rationale, the methodological details and a pract... more The main purpose of the paper is to present the rationale, the methodological details and a practical example of the application of the enhanced SWOT analysis in the context of technological foresight. The authors take into account and propose an innovative extension of SWOT analysis by an additional dimension (expanding known in the literature SWOT analysis model that includes three criteria of factor division: occurrence in time, source of origin and nature of influence): the assessment of factor significance in two time perspectives: the current state and the hypothetical horizon. As a result, a thirty-two-field SWOT diagram is obtained. The paper also presents the practical implications of the proposed methodology by offering a case study.
The Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering, 2016
Construction of modern and durable asphalt and cement pavements requires high quality materials a... more Construction of modern and durable asphalt and cement pavements requires high quality materials and suitable technologies that take into account sustainability concerns which are related to the environmental protection, mitigation and compensation for road construction effects on surface water and groundwater, soil, air, wildlife, landscape, vibration and noise. The objectives of this paper are to identify possible development directions of materials and technologies in road construction in the time perspective of approximately 30 years. In order to achieve that goal a nationwide Delphi survey with 150 invited experts was deployed. The study concluded that binding materials with improved viscoelastic range – and often with specific modifications – would continue to play a leading role. Furthermore, technologies that enable monitoring the state of road pavement condition in a continuous manner would be used to a greater range. Introduction of sensors into the pavement network would l...
Journal of Business Economics and Management, 2016
The practice of using environmental management systems (EMS) ISO 14001 at the organisational leve... more The practice of using environmental management systems (EMS) ISO 14001 at the organisational level indicates that the efficacy of such solutions depends on many factors, both endogenous and exogenous in nature. This article aims to identify the fac- tors that determine the opportunities for the improvement of EMS in organisations, the analysis of the relationship between the factors and the classification of the factors due to their role in the system improvement. The structural analysis was used to classify and identify the key factors and then to categorize these factors into five groups. Finally, the role of these key factors in improving environmental management systems was exam- ined. Based on the findings, guidelines can be offered to both scholars and practitioners regarding the factors crucial for the improvement of the EMS. Aiming to add value to the existing literature, the structural analysis was adapted to classification and identification of the key factors. From the po...
Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, 2014
Streszczenie: Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie założeń koncepcji foresightu gospodarczego. Zapr... more Streszczenie: Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie założeń koncepcji foresightu gospodarczego. Zaproponowany przez autorów model foresightu gospodarczego został ukierunkowany na zastosowanie na poziomie organizacji. Model badań foresight powinien być adekwatny do rozmiaru i możliwości organizacji (uproszczony, zogniskowany na konkretnym problemie). W każdym wypadku jednak powinna być zachowana badawcza rzetelność oraz metodologiczna poprawność procesu foresightowego. Niniejszy artykuł może pomóc organizacjom w spełnieniu tego wymogu.
Streszczenie. Zasadniczym celem artykułu było wyznaczenie prognozy ceny energii elektrycznej na R... more Streszczenie. Zasadniczym celem artykułu było wyznaczenie prognozy ceny energii elektrycznej na Rynku Dnia Następnego Towarowej Giełdy Energii. Kolejnym istotnym celem badań było przeprowadzenie analizy porównawczej jakości otrzymanych prognoz i dokonanie rekomendacji zbudowanych modeli prognostycznych. Początkowo przeanalizowano zebrane dane, przeprowadzono dekompozycję analizowanego szeregu czasowego. Następnie wyznaczono prognozę ceny energii elektrycznej na giełdzie energii, wykorzystując takie metody, jak model Holta-Wintersa oraz sztuczne sieci neuronowe. Słowa kluczowe: prognozowanie, giełda energii, cena energii, model Holta-Wintersa, sztuczne sieci neuronowe. FORECASTING THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY ON THE ENERGY EXCHANGE Summary. The main objective of this paper was to determine the forecast of the price of electricity on the POLPX Day Ahead Market. Another important aim of the study was to conduct a comparative analysis of the quality of the forecasts and make recommendations concerning the constructed forecasting models. Initially the collected data was analyzed, and the decomposition of the analyzed time series was performed. Then the forecast of electricity prices on the energy exchange was determined using methods such as the Holt-Winters model and artificial neural networks.
ZESPÓŁ EKSPERTÓW PANELU MAPOWANIA TECHNOLOGII I KLUCZOWYCH TECHNOLOGII prof. dr inż. Adam Skorekk... more ZESPÓŁ EKSPERTÓW PANELU MAPOWANIA TECHNOLOGII I KLUCZOWYCH TECHNOLOGII prof. dr inż. Adam Skorekkierownik naukowy panelu prof. dr hab. inż. Jerzy Barglik prof. dr hab. inż. Jan R. Dąbrowski prof. dr hab. inż. Jan Dorosz prof. dr hab. inż. Mieczysław Hering prof. dr hab. Witold Łojkowski prof. dr hab. n. med. Jacek Małyszko prof. dr hab. n. med. Jolanta Małyszko prof. dr hab. inż. Joanicjusz Nazarko prof. dr hab. n. med. Zbigniew Puchalski dr hab. inż. Joanna Ejdys, prof. nzw. dr Krzysztof Dziekoński dr Arkadiusz Jurczuk dr Iwona Nowicka dr Anna Olszewska dr Wiesław Urban dr n. med. Michał Zabłocki Andrzej Arefiew Magdalena Bałakier Józef Borowski Zbigniew Gołąbiewski Anna Gryko-Nikitin Jerzy Kaczan prof. dr hab. inż. Krzysztof Kurzydłowskikierownik naukowy panelu prof. dr hab. inż. Jan R. Dąbrowski prof. dr hab. inż. Jan Dorosz prof. dr hab. inż. Leon Gradoń prof. dr hab. inż. Małgorzata Lewandowska prof. dr hab. Witold Łojkowski prof. dr hab. Andrzej Maziewski prof. dr hab. inż. Adam Mazurkiewicz prof. dr hab. inż. Urszula Narkiewicz
r o z d z i a ł 1 Mapowanie technologii 13 * Szerzej charakterystykę marszrut rozwoju technologii... more r o z d z i a ł 1 Mapowanie technologii 13 * Szerzej charakterystykę marszrut rozwoju technologii zaprezentowano w rozdziale drugim.
W raporcie zaprezentowane zostały wyniki badań przeprowadzonych na próbie 643 Polaków. Celem bada... more W raporcie zaprezentowane zostały wyniki badań przeprowadzonych na próbie 643 Polaków. Celem badań było poznanie ogólnej wiedzy respondentów w zakresie rozwoju zastosowania robotów humanoidalnych do opieki nad osobami starszymi, skłonności do ich wykorzystywania, postrzeganych zagrożeń i zaufania do analizowanej technologii. Główną przesłanką badań było poszukiwanie odpowiedzi na pytania: Czy roboty humanoidalne wyposażone w sztuczną inteligencję mogą być w przyszłości wykorzystywane do opieki nad osobami starszymi? Źródłem jakich zagrożeń mogą być humanoidy opiekujące się osobami starszymi? Jakie czynniki o charakterze marketingowym będą determinowały rozwój technologii? Na jakie bariery o charakterze etycznym narażeni są użytkownicy rozwiązań? Co decyduje o funkcjonalności zastosowania technologii? Czy człowiek może zaufać robotowi?
The purpose of the paper is to present the structural analysis as an instrument of identification... more The purpose of the paper is to present the structural analysis as an instrument of identification and classification of factors influencing the development of a particular technology. The paper discusses the theoretical basis of the method and presents its practical implications in the form of a case study of a project entitled “Technological Foresight «NT FOR Podlaskie 2020». Regional Strategy of Nanotechnology Development”. The aim of the described project was to find answers to the following questions: What are the key drivers of nanotechnology development in Podlaskie region (Poland) in the perspective of year 2020? What are the interrelations between these drivers? For the research purposes of the article structural analysis was used.
Methodology. STEEPVL analysis is primarily deployed in technological foresight in order to identi... more Methodology. STEEPVL analysis is primarily deployed in technological foresight in order to identify external factors (driving forces) influencing the development of a studied technology (Nazarko 2011). It is essentially a heuristic method in which expert knowledge is distilled with help of brainstorming, moderated discussion, surveys and bibliometrics. In the selection of experts for the study, the three-faceted triangulation principle was observed. Firstly, the engaged experts represent diverse professional backgrounds, different genders and ages (expert triangulation). Secondly, engaged experts and information sources used represented various institutions and diverse viewpoints (data triangulation). Thirdly, engaged experts represented diverse research fields (theoretical triangulation) (Kononiuk and Nazarko, 2013).
Methodology. SWOT analysis is commonly used in foresight studies as an instrument of categorizing... more Methodology. SWOT analysis is commonly used in foresight studies as an instrument of categorizing significant factors that determine the development of a particular phenomenon or an organization. In its classical form, SWOT analysis is based on the division of phenomena and states that influence the development of an organization into strengths and weaknesses located inside the organization as well as the opportunities and threats located outside the organization (Chermack and Kasshanna, 2007). As a result of such division, a four-field SWOT diagram is obtained. An extended SWOT analysis model that includes three criteria of factor division is proposed in the literature (Sztando, 2006). These criteria are: occurrence in time (existing or potential), source of origin (from inside of the system or from the environment), nature of influence (favourable or unfavourable). Such division leads to the creation of an eight-field SWOT diagram. In the opinion of the paper authors, such approac...
Przedsiewziecie "Narodowy Program Foresight - wdrozenie wynikow" realizowane na zleceni... more Przedsiewziecie "Narodowy Program Foresight - wdrozenie wynikow" realizowane na zlecenie Ministerstwa Nauki i Szkolnictwa Wyzszego (MNISW) w ramach projektu systemowego nr UDA-POIG.01.01.03-00-001/08-00 Wsparcie systemu zarządzania badaniami naukowymi oraz ich wynikami, w ramach Priorytetu I, Dzialania 1.1, Poddzialania 1.1.3, Programu Operacyjnego Innowacyjna Gospodarka, 2007-2013.
Interdisciplinarity, which is a part of the research paradigm in all fields of science constitute... more Interdisciplinarity, which is a part of the research paradigm in all fields of science constitutes a real challenge in research. It manifests itself particularly in the diversity of the undertaken research topics, in the variety of the adopted research approaches (theoretical, methodological, normative, empirical-descriptive), and in the flexibility and the ability to see both the scientific problems as well as the economic and social needs. The ability to cross the boundaries between the fields of technical and social sciences, to identify problems and to seek solutions at the frontiers of scientific disciplines, the eagerness to work in research teams diverse in terms of competence, age, skills, creating conditions for both the personal development and that of individual team members, breaking the stereotypical ways of thinking in the process of solving problems and anticipating future events are all features of an academic culture nurtured by Professor Joanicjusz Nazarko. His pro...
T he rapid transformation of the socioeconomic, political, and technological context predetermine... more T he rapid transformation of the socioeconomic, political, and technological context predetermines changes in the expectations for higher education institutions which face numerous profound challenges. In order to survive and develop under changing conditions, universities need to drastically rethink their development strategies. This paper substantiates the effectiveness of using foresight for these purposes, which is confirmed by the experience of a project on the development of scenarios for the Faculty Кeywords: foresight; scenarios; higher education institution; strategy; management; engineering. of Engineering Management (FEM) at Bialystok Technical University (Poland) for the period up to 2035. This enquiry has resulted in compiling four alternative visions for FEM. By analyzing them one can gain valuable knowledge on both preferable and lessfavored alternatives, which on the one hand suggest which actions may lead to their realization, and on the other, indicate specific actions that may lead to the abandonment of undesirable paths in favor of the most conducive vision.
Ageing population poses new social, technological, and research challenges. It is anticipated tha... more Ageing population poses new social, technological, and research challenges. It is anticipated that, by 2080, Poland will be in the group of counties that will have one-third of their population aged over 65. Different strategies aim at dealing with the mentioned demographic challenge, including widespread use of humanoids in the care of older people. As this research was the first of its kind in Poland, this article aims to identify the perceived key benefits that could shape positive attitudes toward humanoids in the care of older people. Based on the specific attributes of a humanoid technology, the model hypothesizes that an attitude toward a technology can be directly shaped by four kinds of perceived benefits, namely an impact on the quality of life, functional aspects, ethical problems, and a social impact. Also, a theoretical model assumes that a user attitude toward a humanoid technology is predicted to have an indirect influence on the future intended use. A survey method w...
The multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) utility-determining techniques are considered to be ... more The multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) utility-determining techniques are considered to be new development techniques that have been recently presented, extended and used by some scholars. In the current work, an attempt is made to present a systematic review of methodologies and applications of the MCDM utilitydetermining techniques discussed in recent years. The researchers reviewed 86 papers, describing the use of the MCDM utility-determining techniques, which were published in the period 2004-2015 in more than 42 scientific journals. They mainly refer to the area of management and are extracted from online databases, such as Web of Science, Scopus and Google Scholar. According to the classification used by the researchers, the papers were grouped based on the five main MCDM utility-determining techniques, including stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA), the weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS), the additive ratio assessment (ARAS), the method of complex proportional assessment (COPRAS), multi-objective optimisation by ratio analysis (MOORA) and MULTIMOORA (MOORA plus a full multiplicative form). Furthermore, the papers were categorised taking into account their authors, publication date, journal name, the technique and method used, research objectives, research gap and problem, solution and modelling and, finally, the results and findings. The results of this study show that, in 2013, scholars published more papers on the MCDM utility-determining techniques than in other years. It is also worth noting that a group of COPRAS methods (COPRAS-Grey and COPRAS-Fuzzy) was ranked number one among the methods used in this area. With regard to journals, the Journal of Civil Engineering and Management was ranked first in the list of journals, which contributed to this review.
Technology development is determined by many factors which have different functions in the socioe... more Technology development is determined by many factors which have different functions in the socioeconomic system. Knowledge and skills in the process of selection of key factors and assign roles to other factors, plays an important part from the perspective of management of technologies. The purpose of the paper is to present the structural analysis as an instrument of identification and classification of factors influencing the development of a particular technology. The paper discusses the theoretical basis of the method and presents its practical implications in the form of a case study of a project entitled "Technological Foresight «NT FOR Podlaskie 2020». Regional Strategy of Nanotechnology Development". The aim of the described project was to find answers to the following questions: What are the key drivers of nanotechnology development in Podlaskie region (Poland) in the perspective of year 2020? What are the interrelations between these drivers? For the research purposes of the article structural analysis was used. The applied method allowed eventually to the select two main factors that determine the development of the analyzed technologies which formed the basis for creating development scenarios.
The purpose of the paper is to present the methodological basis and an example of factor analysis... more The purpose of the paper is to present the methodological basis and an example of factor analysis supporting STEEPVL analysis in the identification of driving forces of technology development in foresight studies. The proposed approach allows for the identification of a limited number of the most significant driving forces of technology development. The practical implications of the methodological considerations are presented in the paper in a form of a case study describing the combination of STEEPVL and factor analysis in the project entitled "Technological Foresight «NT FOR Podlaskie 2020». Regional Strategy of Nanotechnology Development".
The main purpose of the paper is to present the rationale, the methodological details and a pract... more The main purpose of the paper is to present the rationale, the methodological details and a practical example of the application of the enhanced SWOT analysis in the context of technological foresight. The authors take into account and propose an innovative extension of SWOT analysis by an additional dimension (expanding known in the literature SWOT analysis model that includes three criteria of factor division: occurrence in time, source of origin and nature of influence): the assessment of factor significance in two time perspectives: the current state and the hypothetical horizon. As a result, a thirty-two-field SWOT diagram is obtained. The paper also presents the practical implications of the proposed methodology by offering a case study.
The Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering, 2016
Construction of modern and durable asphalt and cement pavements requires high quality materials a... more Construction of modern and durable asphalt and cement pavements requires high quality materials and suitable technologies that take into account sustainability concerns which are related to the environmental protection, mitigation and compensation for road construction effects on surface water and groundwater, soil, air, wildlife, landscape, vibration and noise. The objectives of this paper are to identify possible development directions of materials and technologies in road construction in the time perspective of approximately 30 years. In order to achieve that goal a nationwide Delphi survey with 150 invited experts was deployed. The study concluded that binding materials with improved viscoelastic range – and often with specific modifications – would continue to play a leading role. Furthermore, technologies that enable monitoring the state of road pavement condition in a continuous manner would be used to a greater range. Introduction of sensors into the pavement network would l...
Journal of Business Economics and Management, 2016
The practice of using environmental management systems (EMS) ISO 14001 at the organisational leve... more The practice of using environmental management systems (EMS) ISO 14001 at the organisational level indicates that the efficacy of such solutions depends on many factors, both endogenous and exogenous in nature. This article aims to identify the fac- tors that determine the opportunities for the improvement of EMS in organisations, the analysis of the relationship between the factors and the classification of the factors due to their role in the system improvement. The structural analysis was used to classify and identify the key factors and then to categorize these factors into five groups. Finally, the role of these key factors in improving environmental management systems was exam- ined. Based on the findings, guidelines can be offered to both scholars and practitioners regarding the factors crucial for the improvement of the EMS. Aiming to add value to the existing literature, the structural analysis was adapted to classification and identification of the key factors. From the po...
Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, 2014
Streszczenie: Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie założeń koncepcji foresightu gospodarczego. Zapr... more Streszczenie: Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie założeń koncepcji foresightu gospodarczego. Zaproponowany przez autorów model foresightu gospodarczego został ukierunkowany na zastosowanie na poziomie organizacji. Model badań foresight powinien być adekwatny do rozmiaru i możliwości organizacji (uproszczony, zogniskowany na konkretnym problemie). W każdym wypadku jednak powinna być zachowana badawcza rzetelność oraz metodologiczna poprawność procesu foresightowego. Niniejszy artykuł może pomóc organizacjom w spełnieniu tego wymogu.
Streszczenie. Zasadniczym celem artykułu było wyznaczenie prognozy ceny energii elektrycznej na R... more Streszczenie. Zasadniczym celem artykułu było wyznaczenie prognozy ceny energii elektrycznej na Rynku Dnia Następnego Towarowej Giełdy Energii. Kolejnym istotnym celem badań było przeprowadzenie analizy porównawczej jakości otrzymanych prognoz i dokonanie rekomendacji zbudowanych modeli prognostycznych. Początkowo przeanalizowano zebrane dane, przeprowadzono dekompozycję analizowanego szeregu czasowego. Następnie wyznaczono prognozę ceny energii elektrycznej na giełdzie energii, wykorzystując takie metody, jak model Holta-Wintersa oraz sztuczne sieci neuronowe. Słowa kluczowe: prognozowanie, giełda energii, cena energii, model Holta-Wintersa, sztuczne sieci neuronowe. FORECASTING THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY ON THE ENERGY EXCHANGE Summary. The main objective of this paper was to determine the forecast of the price of electricity on the POLPX Day Ahead Market. Another important aim of the study was to conduct a comparative analysis of the quality of the forecasts and make recommendations concerning the constructed forecasting models. Initially the collected data was analyzed, and the decomposition of the analyzed time series was performed. Then the forecast of electricity prices on the energy exchange was determined using methods such as the Holt-Winters model and artificial neural networks.
ZESPÓŁ EKSPERTÓW PANELU MAPOWANIA TECHNOLOGII I KLUCZOWYCH TECHNOLOGII prof. dr inż. Adam Skorekk... more ZESPÓŁ EKSPERTÓW PANELU MAPOWANIA TECHNOLOGII I KLUCZOWYCH TECHNOLOGII prof. dr inż. Adam Skorekkierownik naukowy panelu prof. dr hab. inż. Jerzy Barglik prof. dr hab. inż. Jan R. Dąbrowski prof. dr hab. inż. Jan Dorosz prof. dr hab. inż. Mieczysław Hering prof. dr hab. Witold Łojkowski prof. dr hab. n. med. Jacek Małyszko prof. dr hab. n. med. Jolanta Małyszko prof. dr hab. inż. Joanicjusz Nazarko prof. dr hab. n. med. Zbigniew Puchalski dr hab. inż. Joanna Ejdys, prof. nzw. dr Krzysztof Dziekoński dr Arkadiusz Jurczuk dr Iwona Nowicka dr Anna Olszewska dr Wiesław Urban dr n. med. Michał Zabłocki Andrzej Arefiew Magdalena Bałakier Józef Borowski Zbigniew Gołąbiewski Anna Gryko-Nikitin Jerzy Kaczan prof. dr hab. inż. Krzysztof Kurzydłowskikierownik naukowy panelu prof. dr hab. inż. Jan R. Dąbrowski prof. dr hab. inż. Jan Dorosz prof. dr hab. inż. Leon Gradoń prof. dr hab. inż. Małgorzata Lewandowska prof. dr hab. Witold Łojkowski prof. dr hab. Andrzej Maziewski prof. dr hab. inż. Adam Mazurkiewicz prof. dr hab. inż. Urszula Narkiewicz
r o z d z i a ł 1 Mapowanie technologii 13 * Szerzej charakterystykę marszrut rozwoju technologii... more r o z d z i a ł 1 Mapowanie technologii 13 * Szerzej charakterystykę marszrut rozwoju technologii zaprezentowano w rozdziale drugim.
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