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And the line between “acceptable consequences” and “catastrophic consequences” is basically unknowable, so it’s not a bad idea to err on the side of caution.



> so it’s not a bad idea to err on the side of caution

Over time it's gotten harder for me to figure out what the side of caution even is. If they are too aggressive in stimulating the economy, they risk inflation. If they are not aggressive enough they risk a persistently weak economy, escalating political dysfunction, and (if history is a guide) eventual collapse of the status quo and usually even-more-inflationary policies.

It doesn't seem like there is a safe path anywhere - errors on either side seem like they could be potentially catastrophic.




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