Yelitza Breen

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Eclectic scientist by heart and background. BS Engineering Summa Cum Laude UC Venezuela, Master of Applied Statistics LSU, and MA Economics IU. Screenwriting engineer and artist with an UCLA Certificate and Character Design training with Nate Wragg (DreamWorks).

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W(h)ither the Full Season: An Empirical Model for Predicting the Duration of New Television Series’ First Season

Television seasons have gotten shorter and shorter over the past few decades. This has been espec... more Television seasons have gotten shorter and shorter over the past few decades. This has been especially true for new dramatic television series where the norm has dropped to thirteen episodes from almost double that figure twenty years ago. Somewhat surprisingly, there is a dearth of empirical research on this question. In this study, we build on recent research in the field of cultural economics to test the effect of three factors on the duration of new television series’ first season—the originality of the series’ premise, the track record of its creators, and the cognitive complexity of the pilot episode script. As expected, we find that in a sample of 165 new dramatic series debuting in the nine most recently completed seasons, these three factors—both individually and in combination—positively impact both the number of episodes of a new series and the likelihood that new series gets a “full” first season.

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Predicting the Success of New Cable Series from their Pilot Episode Scripts: An Empirical Approach

Business and Management Studies

In this study we develop an empirical model to explain failure rates of new television series. Sp... more In this study we develop an empirical model to explain failure rates of new television series. Specifically, we test the ability of three factors to predict the success of new dramatic series appearing on 31 cable networks over the last 10 years. Those factors are the originality of the story, the track record of its creator(s), and the cognitive complexity of its pilot episode script—all of which are known well in advance of a network’s decision to greenlight a new series. As predicted, we find that all three variables—both individually and in combination—strongly predict the success rate of new dramatic series in their first two seasons.

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W(h)ither the Full Season: An Empirical Model for Predicting the Duration of New Television Series’ First Season

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Predicting the Success of New Cable Series from their Pilot Episode Scripts: An Empirical Approach

Business and Management Studies

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Yelitza Breen

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