Papers by Tetsuya Michinaka
Journal of forest planning, 2013
Aii Analysis of the SocioEconomic Affecting Global Forest Area Changes 'Ibtsuya Michinaka 'iandMo... more Aii Analysis of the SocioEconomic Affecting Global Forest Area Changes 'Ibtsuya Michinaka 'iandMotoe Miyamoto '2 msSIRAcr This study examined the impacts ot socioeconomic factors on forest area change by human development 1ffvel of countries. Cluster analysis and panel data analysis were combined to solve the problem of heterogeneity in panel data analysis and the problem ef data availability to some extent, The results show that many soci}economic factors have negative impacts on forest area in counhies at low levels of human develepment, but their impacts become positive in countries at higher levels of human development, such as rate ef rural population, adult literacy rate, and GDP per capita. The findings ot this research remind decision makers to pay attention to increasing countries' level of human development when atternpting te prevent deforestation, because people in higher human development index countries tend to be more protective offorests. Kleytvonts: human development, socioeconomic factors, deforestation, cluster analysis, panel data analysis INIIIODUenON People treat forests differently at different stages of human development. These diflerences can be seen throughout theusands of years of httman history and in changes in forest area ever the past twe decades in counnies at different stages ofdevelopment, Global forest area has been decreasing, Although the pace of this decline has slowed, 83 million ha of forest disappeared from 1990 to 2000, and 52 millien ha of forest were eliminated between 2000 and 2elO, according te FRA2010 (FAO, 201e). The countries with the largest decreases in forest area in the past two decades include Bruzil (55.3 million ha), Indonesia (24.1 million ha), Nigeria (8.2 mi11ien ha) and Tbuizania (8.1 million ha). Of the 233 countries and regions Iisted in FRA2010, forest area decreased in 88 countries and increased or remained stable in 136 countries (forest area data are not available tor remaining countries). Numerous studies have examined the relationship between forest resources and socio-econemic factors, from macro-level analyses utilizing multinational data to micro-level analyses based on field investigations. In particular, poverty (er ecenomic level) and
日本森林学会大会発表データベース 第126回日本森林学会大会, 2015
Jarq-japan Agricultural Research Quarterly, 2011
There is an increasing interest in the sustainable supply of wood from New Zealand's plantation f... more There is an increasing interest in the sustainable supply of wood from New Zealand's plantation forests. This is due to the importance of New Zealand in global trade and uncertainty about the sustainability of supply from other countries, such as Russia. The aim of this paper is to identify important factors that influence log supply and demand for New Zealand and its key Asian markets (South Korea, Japan and China). To this end we used annual time series data from 1990 to 2008 to estimate export supply and import demand functions by two stage least squares with stepwise regression estimation. We found that New Zealand's log exports to Japan and South Korea are not sensitive to price, but exports to China are sensitive to price, while New Zealand's total harvest has a stronger influence on log export supply to China and South Korea. New Zealand's domestic log consumption competes with exports to Japan, but does not compete with supply to South Korea or China. Import demand in South Korea, Japan, and China for New Zealand logs is negatively affected by import price, with Japan's import demand the most price-sensitive. The three markets differ in the impact of gross domestic product on import demand. Gross domestic product has a strong positive impact on log demand in Japan and China, but a modest impact in South Korea.
Forest Policy and Economics, Aug 1, 2021
Abstract This study aimed to propose a set of decision support tools to allocate Cambodia's R... more Abstract This study aimed to propose a set of decision support tools to allocate Cambodia's REDD+ national baseline or initial forest reference level (FRL) to local REDD+ projects, based on their forest cover and forest carbon stocks, and the historical deforestation trends in their reference regions. Our samples included 77 hypothetical REDD+ projects and five actual REDD+ projects. To identify reference regions for our samples, a cluster analysis of 127 districts in Cambodia was conducted using the Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) algorithm (or k-medoids method). To calculate the baseline amount to be allocated to projects, four allocation methods were proposed. Two methods used ‘snapshot’ variables (i.e., [1] existing forest area or [2] forest carbon stock) and two used ‘change’ variables (i.e., [3] historical forest area change or [4] historical forest carbon stock change from 2006 to 2014). We weighted the baseline by the deforestation risk in 2014. We found that ‘snapshot’ methods tended to allocate more baseline if the project had more forest cover or forest carbon stocks. In contrast, ‘change’ methods tended to allocate more baseline if the project has more forest area loss or forest carbon stock loss between 2006 and 2014 in its reference region. These differences suggest that the ‘snapshot’ methods do not consider the inequity in the amount of baseline allocated to the projects. This inequity stems from the different degree of effort made by project stakeholders to protect their forests. The degree of effort varies depending on the historical deforestation trend in a project's reference region. However, the ‘change’ methods explicitly incorporate the trend into their calculations of baseline allocations. Technically, the ‘change’ method [4] seems to be the desired choice for allocating FRL to local projects; this is because it fits best with the idea of counter-factual thinking using a ‘reference period’ that a national baseline must have under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The ‘change’ methods are less likely to stimulate further deforestation, in a jurisdiction with high forest cover or forest carbon stocks that does not have a REDD+ project, compared with the ‘snapshot’ methods. However, the ‘change’ methods are more likely to face the challenge of political adjustment to balance the reduced emissions from some jurisdictions/projects with increased emissions from the other jurisdictions/projects, compared with the ‘snapshot’ methods. The findings are applicable not only in Cambodia but also in other REDD+ countries that include deforestation as one of the five REDD+ activities, within the scope of their national baseline submission to the UNFCCC. The study's outcomes will facilitate stakeholder dialogue on the proportions of national baseline allocated to sub-national programs/projects by showing the technical and political implications of the proposed allocation methods.
Journal of Sustainable Development, Apr 11, 2013
Clarifying factors affecting forest area changes is critical to implementing REDD+ scheme properl... more Clarifying factors affecting forest area changes is critical to implementing REDD+ scheme properly. We analyzed some socioeconomic factors and clarified their relationships with deforestation in Cambodia for the period of 2002 to 2010. A panel data analysis was conducted for 18 provinces, while six other provinces were deleted from the list because only a small amount of their land was forested. Time effects, cross-sectional dependence, serial correlation in idiosyncratic errors, and heteroskedasticity were tested, and robust variance matrix estimations were obtained to solve the problems of heteroskedasticity and serial correlation. The model estimation results showed that population, gross agricultural production and large-scale plantation development have negative impacts on forest area changes. On the other hand, the impacts of rice cultivation, gross industrial production, household income and house floor area by household were found not to be significant. Overall, however, the results indicated that forests in Cambodia still face pressure from the increases in population, agriculture production, and the enlargement of land development. As the increase in productivity of agriculture gives a better use of current agricultural land and lessens the pressure on forest, intensifying agriculture is important. It is also important to develop industry and other economic ventures to grow national economy while not imposing pressure on forest. This research reminds decision makers to use discretion when developing large-scale plantations.
Journal of forest planning, 2012
Understanding young people's perceptions of the functions of forests is important in developing f... more Understanding young people's perceptions of the functions of forests is important in developing forest-management strategies. This study investigated factors associated with high school students' perceptions of the functions of forests, particularly as related to their knowledge of forests and experience of visiting forests. Questionnaires were distributed to fi rst-year students at a public high school in Kobe, Japan, in 2009, yielding 285 responses (response rate of 97.6%). Nine functions (e.g., carbon storage, timber production) were suggested in the questions. The students' perceptions of forests were compared among three types of forest described by the terms "forest," "artifi cial forest," and "natural forest." The results allowed for a clear understanding of the student's perceptions of forests, revealing the following: 1. The function of carbon storage was highly rated in all types of forest. 2. Knowledge of forest management could be divided into three categories: management by people, harm caused by nature, and substitutes for wood products. 3. Experience visiting forests was determined largely by grade. Students visited forests most when they were in elementary school. However, whether the students visited forests at present had no significant influence on their responses to the questionnaire.
Forest Policy and Economics, Jul 1, 2014
This study examined the process and causes of forest cover change in Peninsular Malaysia from 197... more This study examined the process and causes of forest cover change in Peninsular Malaysia from 1970 to 2010. Time series data on forest cover, land use, timber production, and socioeconomic variables of Peninsular Malaysia were analyzed by regression modeling using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Peninsular Malaysia experienced extensive deforestation during the 1970s and early 1980s, but since then deforestation has slowed down substantially. Regression results highlighted that poverty alleviation was the principal underlying factor leading to change in forest area. Neither population growth nor economic growth was a major factor affecting forest cover. Oil palm expansion was identified as the main proximate cause of deforestation. Regression results also indicate that oil palm expansion greatly contributed to poverty reduction. Our empirical evidence suggests that in Peninsular Malaysia, agricultural development to reduce poverty, in particular oil palm development, initially led to deforestation. However, substantial decrease in poverty caused decrease in deforestation over the long term. Based on the results of this study, we propose poverty alleviation as a strategy to reduce deforestation. Our findings demonstrate the need to analyze factors that reduce deforestation and to develop effective REDD programs.
Forests, Apr 26, 2016
Forecasts of prices can help industries in their risk management. This is especially true for Jap... more Forecasts of prices can help industries in their risk management. This is especially true for Japanese logs, which experience sharp fluctuations in price. In this research, the authors used an exponential smoothing method (ETS) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the monthly prices of domestic logs of three of the most important species in Japan: sugi (Japanese cedar, Cryptomeria japonica D. Don), hinoki (Japanese cypress, Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc.) Endl.), and karamatsu (Japanese larch, Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr.). For the 12-month forecasting periods, forecasting intervals of 80% and 95% were given. By measuring the accuracy of forecasts of 12-and 6-month forecasting periods, it was found that ARIMA gave better results than did the ETS in the majority of cases. However, the combined method of averaging ETS and ARIMA forecasts gave the best results for hinoki in several cases.
Land, Jun 5, 2018
Forest reference (emission) levels (FREL/FRLs) are baselines for REDD+, and 34 countries have sub... more Forest reference (emission) levels (FREL/FRLs) are baselines for REDD+, and 34 countries have submitted their FREL/FRLs to UNFCCC by January 2018. Most of them used simple historical average without considering the stages of forest transition. This research suggested that the period of calculating FREL/FRLs of simple historical average should be properly chosen if these countries are occupying multiple stages or sub-stages of forest transition. Moreover, as a case study, this research applied both parametric and nonparametric models to approximate forest area dynamics with regard to per capita GDP in Peninsular Malaysia from 1971 to 2016. This research found that, in the case of Peninsular Malaysia, among the parametric models, the biexponential model outperformed the other growth models, while two of the nonparametric models i.e. Friedman local averaging and Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing models are the best among all the models on the basis of their RSS, RMSE, and MAE indices. Based on the results of our leave-last-five-out CV, however, the research found that the biexponential and Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing models performed best, although the performance of the other two nonparametric models remains unknown. Nonparametric model results indicated that Peninsular Malaysia experienced four sub-stages since 1971 and each sub-stage had different linear trends, yet it still did not reach the turning point of forest transition. This research also found that a linear projection using historical deforestation data when the per capita GDP level reached US$8000 was appropriate for setting FREL/FRLs.
Journal of forest planning, 2018
FORMATH, 2011
The objective of this research is to analyze the impact on the global forest sector of changes in... more The objective of this research is to analyze the impact on the global forest sector of changes in China's domestic market and international trade in forest products. Price and income elasticities of demand for seven forest products are estimated using cluster analysis combined with panel data analysis. Cluster analysis is used to group countries by their levels of per capita gross domestic product (GDP), per capita consumption of forest products and forest coverage rates. Panel data analysis is then undertaken for each cluster, and price and income elasticities for every cluster are estimated. We used the estimated elasticities of demand and other exogenous parameters, including GDP growth, in the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) to simulate the global forest sector through 2030. The GFPM is a dynamic economic equilibrium model encompassing 180 countries and 14 forest products. The GFPM results show that China is likely to continue to rely on foreign raw materials, leading to increases in consumption in Asia and throughout the world and in prices of forest products. A lower GDP growth for China would lead to lower world consumption of forest products and to lower prices. The GFPM results also show that Japan and South Korea (hereafter Korea) could take advantage of the lower prices to import more raw materials if China were to consume less. Increases in manufacturing costs in
International Forestry Review, 2015
ABSTRACT Establishing forest reference emission levels (RELs) and/or forest reference levels (RLs... more ABSTRACT Establishing forest reference emission levels (RELs) and/or forest reference levels (RLs) is an important task for developing country parties considering taking part in the REDD+ scheme under the UNFCCC, especially for those countries experiencing corresponding economic development with land use changes. In this research, Cambodia&#39;s forest areas and forest carbon stocks from 2011 to 2018 were forecasted, which can be used as a reference for establishing forest RELs in Cambodia. Conditional to the assumptions of population growth, the growth in agricultural gross value added, and the level of economic land concession implementations, the forecasts by panel data analysis to provincial-level data showed that the forest area in Cambodia will decrease to 9.94 million ha in 2014 and 9.51 million ha in 2018 from 10.36 million ha in 2010 and that forest carbon stocks will decrease to 1.22 PgC in 2014 and 1.17 PgC in 2018 from 1.28 PgC in 2010. Spanish El establecimiento de niveles de emisión de referencia (REL, por sus siglas en inglés) y/o niveles de referencia (RL, por sus siglas en inglés) para los bosques es una tarea importante para aquellos países en desarrollo que estén considerando participar en REDD+ bajo la CMNUCC, y en especial para aquellos países que están experimentando un desarrollo económico que corresponde con cambios en el uso del suelo. En esta investigación se pronosticaron las áreas forestales y las reservas de carbono de los bosques de Camboya para el período 2011–2018, que se pueden utilizar como referencia para establecer los REL forestales en Camboya. Dependientes de los supuestos de crecimiento de la población, el crecimiento del valor añadido bruto de la agricultura, y el nivel económico de implementación de la concesión de tierras, los pronósticos del análisis de datos de panel a nivel provincial ponen de manifiesto que la superficie forestal en Camboya disminuirá a 9,94 millones ha en 2014 y 9,51 millones ha en 2018, partiendo de los 10,36 millones ha existentes en 2010 y que las reservas forestales de carbono se reducirán a 1,22 PgC en 2014 y 1,17 PgC en 2018 desde los 1,28 PgC existentes en 2010. French Etablir des niveaux d&#39;émission de référence pour les forêts (RELs) et ou des niveaux de référence forestiers (RLs) est une tâche importante pour les acteurs des pays en voie de développement contemplant une place dans le plan de la REDD+ sous l&#39;égide de l&#39;UNFCCC, particulièrement pour les pays dont le développement économique correspond aux changements dans l&#39;usage de la terre. Dans cette recherche, les surfaces forestières et les stocks de carbone du Cambodge ont été prévues de 2011 à 2018, ce qui peut être utilisé en tant que référence pour établir les RELS forestiers au Cambodge. Dépendant des hypothèses de croissance de la population, la valeur agricole brute s&#39;accroissait, et le niveau des exécutions de concession économiques des terres, les prévisions de groupe d&#39;analyses de données aux données au niveau provincial montraient que la surface forestière au Cambodge va décroître jusqu&#39;à 9.94 millions d&#39;ha en 2014, et 9.51 millions d&#39;ha en 2018, partant de 10.36 millions d&#39;ha en 2010, et que les stocks de carbone forestiers vont décroître respectivement à 1.22 PgC et 1.17 PgC en 2014 et 2018, étant partis de 1.28 PgC en 2010.
Journal of the Japanese Forest Society
Short-and Long-run Effects of Socioeconomic Factors on Forest Dynamics in China. J Jpn For Soc 10... more Short-and Long-run Effects of Socioeconomic Factors on Forest Dynamics in China. J Jpn For Soc 104: 74-81 As the worldʼs forest area continues to decline, Chinaʼs forest area has consistently increased since the 1980 s. In this research, we clarified the driving force behind this by focusing on the socioeconomic factors of China. There is much previous research on the relationship between socioeconomic factors and forest resources in various countries. However, the methods used for research in this field are mainly panel data analysis, and the results produced using such tests, for example unit roots and cointegrations of time series data, are limited. In this research, we used the time series data for the last 40 years on forest area and socioeconomic factors in China, and we used an autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model considering the stationarity of variables and the cointegration relationship. Unit root tests show that all variables are either stationary or becoming stationary after the first differencing. The estimation results show that the change rate of GDP per capita has a positive impact on the change rate of forest area in the short-run but a negative impact in the long-run, and that the change rate of rural populations has a negative impact in both the short-and long-run. It was also shown that the change rate of urban population and foreign direct investments in China have a positive impact on forest coverage rates in the short-run.
Forests, 2020
National circumstances should be considered in establishing and adjusting forest reference emissi... more National circumstances should be considered in establishing and adjusting forest reference emission levels (FRELs/FRLs) under the United Nations Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (UN-REDD+ Programme). Myanmar, one of the world’s least developed countries may face accelerating deforestation under an open and democratic political system that desires rapid economic development. This research analyzes the impacts of population growth and economic development on forest areas in Myanmar by using panel data analysis, an econometrics approach based on panel data of forest areas, population, and gross domestic product (GDP) by states and regions in 2005, 2010, and 2015. This research revealed that per capita GDP and population density gave statistically significant negative impacts on forest areas. Using the regression model obtained above, medium population growth projections, and three GDP development scenarios, annual forest areas from 2016 to 2020 ...
Exponential smoothing (ETS) method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models ha... more Exponential smoothing (ETS) method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models have been applied to forecasting monthly price of logs, sugi (Japanese cedar, Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) and hinoki (Japanese cypress, Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc.) Endl.). In this research, we evaluated the forecast accuracy of these two approaches through cross validation. Monthly current price data from January 2002 to December 2016 were used. The results show that the forecast accuracy of ARIMA models was not statistically significantly different from that of ETS method at 5% level for the period from January 2010 to December 2016 under all 12 forecast horizons of one month to 12 months. By comparing with the amount of changes in original prices, it was found that both ETS method and ARIMA models forecasted with smaller mean absolute errors than mean absolute amount of changes in prices within 8 months of forecast horizons at 5% level, which showing that ETS method and ARIMA ...
Econometric analysis of radiata pine log trade between New Zealand and East Asian countries
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Papers by Tetsuya Michinaka