Papers by Josefa Ramoni Perazzi
Revista de Economía Institucional, 2021
Este artículo muestra que la teoría económica se puede analizar mediante la dinámica de sistemas,... more Este artículo muestra que la teoría económica se puede analizar mediante la dinámica de sistemas, un enfoque intuitivo que permite representar en forma gráfica los lazos de retroalimentación entre las variables que intervienen en los modelos. En particular, modela la visión del crecimiento de Adam Smith, según la interpretación muy simplificada de Robert Heilbroner, (desarrollada en foma más integral y exhaustiva por su maestro, el sociólogo y economista alemán Adolph Lowe) proponiendo un sistema computacional para el estudio de modelos complejos. El trabajo no pretende hacer un aporte original a la modelación económica sino mostrar una herramienta que permite hacer simulaciones con base en los principios de la dinámica de sistemas, utilizando software especializado; una herramienta que se puede utilizar en la enseñanza para mostrar opciones de modelación alternativas a las convencionales.
Basandose en la nocion de Riesgo Academico Institucional introducida por Sinha et. al. (2007), es... more Basandose en la nocion de Riesgo Academico Institucional introducida por Sinha et. al. (2007), este trabajo propone un metodo para cuantificar dicho riesgo a partir de la informacion disponible para el caso de la Universidad de Los Andes (ULA, Merida, Venezuela), utilizando para ello modelos log-lineales. La estructura de dicho modelo, en terminos de las variables a incorporar. esta respaldada por los resultados del analisis de correspondencias multiples previos a la modelacion. Los resultados evidencian que la relacion retrasopostgrado no es significativa, lo que implica una alfa incidencia del retraso en los ascensos de los profesores de la ULA, independientemente del nivel de estudios alcanzado. Se deduce asi, que el problema de los retrasos no se soluciona mediante programas y proyectos que apunten unicamente a incrementar el numero de profesores con postgrado . Tambien, se encontro que la posibilidad de tener postgrado es una funcion creciente de ICP (indice de Capacidad Profes...
espanolTo avoid biased results, sample units must be included in the sample in the correct propor... more espanolTo avoid biased results, sample units must be included in the sample in the correct proportion. Sample weights are intended to correct potential disproportions observed in survey sample data. While their use is widely accepted to estimate population descriptive statistics, their role to estimate causal effects is not clear. This paper analyzes when and how to use weights, considering wages in Colombia as an example, providing a procedure for selecting the final weight components based on empirical evidence. Results indicate that weights are required for descriptive statistics to resemble the population ones. However, several coefficients obtained from weighted and unweighted wage equations show no significant differences. EnglishA fin de evitar resultados sesgados, las unidades muestrales deben ser incluidas en la muestra en la proporcion correcta. Los pesos muestrales se utilizan para corregir posibles desproporciones, frecuentes en datos muestrales. Mientras su uso es ampli...
Ecos de Economía, 2013
This paper suggests a variation of the IMO index (Okun's Misery Index), adapting it to market... more This paper suggests a variation of the IMO index (Okun's Misery Index), adapting it to markets with these characteristics, adding the ESI level (Employment in the Informal Sector) to the unemployment level. This research compares the evolution of several standard misery indexes in several zones during the last decades, with emphasis on the case of Venezuela, for which the new proposed index is also estimated. Results show improvement in the well-being of groups of countries under study, compared to the deterioration of the indicator in Venezuela. In general terms, the IMO is controlled by unemployment, except in Venezuela. However, preponderance of inflation over unemployment in this country seems to occur by the underestimate that the unemployment rate has on the Venezuelan labor market situation.
This work is the result of two research projects developed by the Simon Bolivar University host C... more This work is the result of two research projects developed by the Simon Bolivar University host Cúcuta and the Catholic University of Táchira, whose general objective was to analyze the perception of smuggling from the approach of the institutions in Departamento Norte de Santander (Colombia) and State Táchira (Venezuela). It was a quantitative, descriptive and cross-sectional study, where applicable 2,394 and 1,398 applied structural surveys in each territory, respectively. This chapter is limited to analyzing the perception of the inhabitants of these border regions as to the causes of smuggling, which are related to the dynamics of a frontier economy, culture of illegality, tax evasion and economic, social and legal asymmetries; smuggling understood to introduction into a country or exportation of goods without paying customs duties or taxes to which it is subjected. The objectives were to reveal the causes of smuggling in the border Norte de Santander-Táchira, from the perceptio...
Macroeconomics: Employment, 2012
Back in 1992, a commercial agreement was signed between USA and Mexico (and Canada), which was su... more Back in 1992, a commercial agreement was signed between USA and Mexico (and Canada), which was supposed to promote the economic growth of its members by removing barriers to trade and investment among the three nations. Twenty years later, some studies indicates that the US have lost more jobs than those created by the agreement and moved from positive to negative trade balance with Mexico, all that due to American companies reallocating their production in Mexico, limiting the possibilities of higher wage claims for low-income workers in USA. Mexico, on the other hand, has not seen the positive impact on manufacturing wages NAFTA was supposed to exert. Based on this experience, what can be expected from the Free Trade Agreement between USA and Colombia in force since May 2012, since it is expected to achieve similar goals than NAFTA using similar policies?
Economica, 1999
A fin de probar la existencia, en el caso venezolano, de relaciones de equilibrio en el largo pla... more A fin de probar la existencia, en el caso venezolano, de relaciones de equilibrio en el largo plazo entre el consumo y la renta, dando cabida a la riqueza, el indice de precios y la tasa de interes, como elemento distractor de recursos destinados al consumo, se lleva a cabo un analisis de cointegracion a traves de la aplicacion de la metodologia de Engle-Granger. Los resultados obtenidos permiten ademas corroborar la existencia de una diferencia entre la propension marginal a consumir de corto y largo plazo, tal como lo sugiere la hipotesis del ingreso permanente. E21
espanolEl objetivo del presente estudio es proponer un nuevo concepto, llamado Riesgo Academico I... more espanolEl objetivo del presente estudio es proponer un nuevo concepto, llamado Riesgo Academico Institucional (RAI): como el conjunto de factores tanto externos como internos, que exponen a una institucion academica al influjo y a la contingencia del deterioro progresivo de su calidad. A los efectos, se construyen indices basados en RAI, tal como el de Capacidad Profesional (ICP) y sus componentes, que incorporan elementos de formacion academica y antiguedad profesoral. Dicho concepto es aplicable a todas las universidades nacionales venezolanas. Se ilustra el caso particular de la Universidad de Los Andes, Merida, Venezuela. Los resultados muestran: cuatro de las doce facultades investigadas en situacion de riesgo y ocho facultades sin alcanzar las exigencias de formacion academica a nivel alto. El coeficiente de Gini muestra desigualdad por facultad en el nivel de riesgo, medido por ICP. Los indices construidos basados en el RAI detectan la situacion de riesgo, la cual no podria s...
The objective of this study is to suggest a new concept called Institutional Academic Risk (RAI, ... more The objective of this study is to suggest a new concept called Institutional Academic Risk (RAI, in Spanish): as the group of factors both external and inter...
International Food and Agribusiness Management Review
Agricultural equipment companies intend to understand agriculture producers’ buying behavior by a... more Agricultural equipment companies intend to understand agriculture producers’ buying behavior by answering questions such as how loyal producers are to brands and dealers, which have an important impact on their profitability. This paper addresses the problem of how loyal agricultural producers are to equipment brands and dealers. Using a combination of cluster analysis and probit models, we identified producers’ behavioral and attitudinal loyalty to brands and dealers and analyzed the factors that explain such loyalty. We also found a strong interdependence between brand and dealer loyalty and the significant value that dealer loyalty adds to the brands. Additionally, we present some management implications of developing brand recognition, understanding producers purchasing behavior, and segmenting producers. This paper’s contributions are the establishment and measurement of an ‘empirical’ definition of brand and dealer loyalty, the identification and quantification of the impact o...
Economica, 2000
La marcada inestabilidad y tendencia creciente de la demanda monetaria en Venezuela, hacen supone... more La marcada inestabilidad y tendencia creciente de la demanda monetaria en Venezuela, hacen suponer que cualquier modelo que intente explicarla sin tomar en cuenta la posible no estacionariedad de las variables involucradas, arroje resultados sesgados. Este estudio intenta explicar el comportamiento de la demanda de dinero en Venezuela, en funcion del ingreso (como variable de escala), tipo de cambio y tasas de interes (que recogen el motivo especulacion). Haciendo uso de los enfoques de cointegracion de Engle-Granger y de Johansen, se concluye que la demanda real de dinero se comporta como un bien de lujo con una alta elasticidad ingreso, y se contrae ante atractivas tasas de interes y de tipo de cambio. El metodo de Johansen probo ser el mas conveniente.
The continuity of social projects and programs depends on whether their objectives are fulfilled ... more The continuity of social projects and programs depends on whether their objectives are fulfilled and the magnitude of their impact is significant. That ex- plains the importance of impact evaluation, which may rely on different types of data. Particularly, panel data provides information about time and space that, even though it may be relatively more expensive and not always feasible, allows for a deeper analysis of the impact of the project on the community, controlling for unobservable factors inherent in the individual as well as the region. This pa- per introduces the use of fixed effects and random effects panel data models as tools applied to assess social programs.
espanolLa elasticidad de empleo mide la cantidad de empleo generado por unidad de crecimiento eco... more espanolLa elasticidad de empleo mide la cantidad de empleo generado por unidad de crecimiento economico. En general, la literatura sugiere que bajas elasticidades en el sector agricola, conjuntamente con altas elasticidades en otros sectores, favorecen el crecimiento pro-pobres. Este articulo estima las elasticidades de empleo en Colombia a nivel nacional y departamental, en general y por sector, al tiempo que analiza su relacion con algunas variables socioeconomicas. Los resultados muestran elasticidades positivas a nivel general, relativamente mas bajas en agricultura lo que sugiere movimiento desde trabajos con baja productividad hacia trabajos mas productivos. Regiones altamente competitivas muestran elasticidades altas y positivas en manufactura y servicios, mientras que regiones con bajos niveles de competitividad tienen altas elasticidades negativas en agricultura. EnglishThe employment elasticity measures the employment generated per unit of economic growth. The general lite...
Informality is a common problem in Colombia, with almost 50 percent of the workers employed in th... more Informality is a common problem in Colombia, with almost 50 percent of the workers employed in this sector. This may be a solution for unemployment, but it is a lose/lose game unless the individuals have a comparative advantage in the informal sector. This article uses information from the Colombian Great Integrated Household Survey (GIHS) to analyze the wage gap between formal and informal urban sectors in two different periods, 2008:4 and 2017:4, using a semiparametric approach. Kernel density functions by groups are estimated; counterfactuals are generated by weighting wages of informal sector workers by their probability of working in the formal sector, to estimate how much an informal sector worker could make if treated as formal, according to his characteristics. The results indicate that only some groups (self-employed and some entrepreneurs) are better off if formalized.
Nationwide wages at public universities in Venezuela are established by government based on a fiv... more Nationwide wages at public universities in Venezuela are established by government based on a five-category system, whose requirements include research and tenure. Generally, professors show delay in promotion, probably due to neglecting research, prevalence of lecturing and lack of monetary incentives. In order to promote research, universities are offering a non-wage income. This paper uses two-step estimation methods to analyze the relationship between research and preferment, using data from one Venezuelan university. Results indicate that the probability of delay reduces the extra income; education increases the probability of researching and the non-wage income, while reducing the probability of delay.
La no reposicion de personal docente es un problema en las universidades publicas venezolanas pue... more La no reposicion de personal docente es un problema en las universidades publicas venezolanas pues estas no cuentan con recursos para reponer profesores a medida que ellos se jubilan. Ademas el deterioro en las remuneraciones de los profesores implica una desventaja de las universidades frente a otras plazas de trabajo al competir por personal calificado. Para determinar los factores que inciden en los estimulos monetarios no salariales y que reducen el riesgo academico institucional, se formulan modelos mixtos, con correccion por sesgo de seleccion, y se analizo el caso particular de la Universidad de Los Andes. Se incluyen variables demograficas e informacion correspondiente a dichos estimulos. Los resultados indican que el nivel educativo y el numero de primas determinan en gran parte dicho ingreso
Introduccion: Garantizar el acceso a servicios de salud de calidad es una de las condiciones nece... more Introduccion: Garantizar el acceso a servicios de salud de calidad es una de las condiciones necesarias para la reduccion de la pobreza y de la desigualdad en un pais. Objetivo: Analizar la percepcion de la calidad en la prestacion de servicios de salud en un hospital asistencial. Metodos: Estudio transversal realizado en pacientes atendidos durante los meses de marzo y abril de 2016 en las areas de urgencias y consulta externa del Hospital Lazaro Alfonso Hernandez Lara, Colombia. La muestra quedo conformada por 220 pacientes, seleccionados de forma aleatoria. Se aplico la metodologia seis sigma, util para organizar el mejoramiento continuo de los servicios de salud. Los datos de la poblacion objetivo se obtuvieron mediante la encuesta SERVQUAL, instrumento que mide la percepcion de la calidad. Resultados: Respecto a la calidad de atencion percibida, la dimension seguridad aparecio confundida con empatia, y, como factor diferenciador, surgio la dimension comodidad, separada de eleme...
This paper uses the information provided by the Household Sample Survey (1997-1998) to develop a ... more This paper uses the information provided by the Household Sample Survey (1997-1998) to develop a model to explain the structure of wages by gender in Venezuela, taking into account variables such as sector of employment, age, education, among others, using the two-step method suggested by Heckman. Next, the study attempts to quantify, if any, the magnitude of the wage differential between the two groups and whether this is due to differences in the returns to human capital. Main results indicate a positive wage differential favoring women. This differential can be explained not only by the fact that women tend to have relatively higher levels of education, but also the returns to their human capital is higher, especially at the public sector level. Results also indicate that the probability of working or nor is significant in the estimation of the salary equation. It suggests a possible selection bias, corrected at least partly.
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Papers by Josefa Ramoni Perazzi