Papers by Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI)
Rome, IAI, December 2024, 5 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|71), 2024
The New Pact on Migration and Asylum is far from perfect. The unbalance between solidarity and re... more The New Pact on Migration and Asylum is far from perfect. The unbalance between solidarity and responsibility could jeopardise its enforcement by privileging the needs of certain groups of member states (those worried about secondary movements) over others (countries of first arrival). This is the reason why EU institutions have been implicitly framing the New Pact – and the external deals that should complement it – as a source of deterrence of irregular arrivals in order to appease countries on the Mediterranean.
Rome, IAI, December 2024, 7 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|70), 2024
If the Alliance is really interested in promoting the nexus between MENA stability and NATO secur... more If the Alliance is really interested in promoting the nexus between MENA stability and NATO security, then it needs to substantially revise its approach to the region and be willing to cooperate with all regional actors to comprehensively advance this objective. Most importantly, it cannot exempt itself from engaging in a fair long-term political settlement of the Palestine-Israel question, contrarily to its current avoidance of the issue, as evidenced by the missed opportunity to translate the experts’ report recommendations into the Washington declaration.
Rome, IAI, November 2024, 6 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|69), 2024
The recent US-German bilateral agreement to deploy conventional intermediate-range missiles in Ge... more The recent US-German bilateral agreement to deploy conventional intermediate-range missiles in Germany provides a perfect balance between the strategic need to boost German deterrence and, considering the historical sympathies to nuclear disarmament and fears of Russian escalation in the country, a certain restraint regarding nuclear deployments.
Rome, IAI, November 2024, 6 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|68), 2024
The EU faces a complex challenge in navigating its trade relations with Morocco, balancing strate... more The EU faces a complex challenge in navigating its trade relations with Morocco, balancing strategic and economic interests with its legal obligations. As Spanish Minister for Agriculture and Fisheries, Luis Planas, recently summarised: “We will respect the ruling, but we are politically very interested in deepening strategic relations with Morocco”. As the Court’s decision, the liberalisation agreement remains provisionally in effect for 12 months, to avoid serious negative consequences for EU external relations and to ensure stability in its international commitments. There is a temporary framework to maintain stability in EU-Morocco relations, tough, but there is no time to waste.
Rome, IAI, November 2024, 12 p. (IAI Papers ; 24|28), ISBN 978-88-9368-347-0, 2024
Few areas of development and innovation attract attention like artificial intelligence (AI), whic... more Few areas of development and innovation attract attention like artificial intelligence (AI), which looms large in the regulatory effort of multilateral fora and international organisations. The G7 is striving to be at the forefront of such efforts. Under the Italian presidency in 2024, the G7 has integrated two key challenges into its agenda: the fragmentation of the AI global policy landscape and the digital divide between high-and low-and middle-income countries, which is likely to feed into growing global inequalities. Under the Italian presidency the G7 has given an impulse to international cooperation for AI regulation. To consolidate its role in shaping AI governance, the Group will have to further develop these two fundamental lines of action.
Rome, IAI, November 2024, 15 p. (IAI Papers ; 24|27), ISBN 978-88-9368-346-3, 2024
The aim of this paper is to illustrate the nexus between health and security, dealing, in particu... more The aim of this paper is to illustrate the nexus between health and security, dealing, in particular, with the impact of epidemics and pandemics on global security. Firstly, it sheds light on the various shapes that the bidirectional link between health and security can assume. Secondly, it describes the threats posed to global security by three major virus epidemics-HIV/AIDS, Ebola and Covid-19-with a focus on the European security environment.
Rome, IAI, November 2024, 5 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|67), 2024
Donald Trump’s second administration will probably push hard European allies to increase their de... more Donald Trump’s second administration will probably push hard European allies to increase their defence spending and, in continuity with Joe Biden’s, will try to rally Europe’s support to contain and roll back China’s influence on the global stage. At the same time, it is highly unlikely that the incoming Republican president will try to withdraw from NATO or somehow break the alliance. Washington will rather seek a peace deal with Moscow over Ukraine at expense of Kyiv, which will represent a first crossroads for Europe. A peace too favourable to Russia would encourage the Kremlin to test NATO’s collective deterrence and defence – this would constitute a second crossroads for European allies.
Rome, IAI, November 2024, 6 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|66), 2024
The nexus between climate change and migration has been widely explored by scholars, with most re... more The nexus between climate change and migration has been widely explored by scholars, with most research studies focussing on the role of extreme weather events in shaping migration flows. Few sources shed light on another key driver of forced movements of people both within and across borders, namely when climate-related harm or disasters result from, or are associated with, environmental crimes. Colombia and Nigeria provide for two emblematic case studies showing the nexus between environmental crimes and migration and the need for protection that may arise from it.
Rome, IAI, November 2024, 4 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|65), 2024
During the past weeks, in various member states of the European Union, an important political deb... more During the past weeks, in various member states of the European Union, an important political debate has (re)emerged regarding the necessity to reduce the level of State indebtedness. This discussion was prompted by statements made by governments of different ideological orientations that, in preparing their medium-term fiscal-structural plans, have warned citizens and parliaments about the likely need to cut certain expenditures and/or raise particular taxes in the future. These comments, which have sparked widespread criticism, have highlighted the requirements posed by the ‘new’ Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) – an economic governance framework that, although less stringent than the previous one, still requires a considerable fiscal response from high-debt EU nations. In the following, we outline the main elements of the ‘new’ SGP, while also explaining why, unlike in the past, it is important for European governments to comply with the euro-unitary fiscal rules, as required by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI).
Rome, IAI, October 2024, 7 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|64), 2024
The revival of the EU’s enlargement policy as a geostrategic imperative following Russia’s 2022 i... more The revival of the EU’s enlargement policy as a geostrategic imperative following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has sparked discussions about the Union’s internal readiness to welcome additional members. The potential accession of up to nine countries from the post-Soviet space and the Western Balkans has been widely associated with the urgent need to reform the Union.
Rome, IAI, October 2024, 4 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|63), 2024
The foreign policy approaches of Trump and Harris show similarities and contrasts. Trump’s Ukrain... more The foreign policy approaches of Trump and Harris show similarities and contrasts. Trump’s Ukraine strategy would involve pressuring both Kyiv and Moscow into a hypothetical peace agreement without much consultation of the Europeans, while Harris would favour continued support for Ukraine with a multilateral negotiation stance. In the Middle East, Trump would support Israel’s actions in Lebanon and Gaza, promote Israeli-Saudi normalisation and exert maximum pressure on Iran; Harris would similarly support Israel and seek normalisation but would advocate for Palestinian concessions and back regional détente efforts. Trump would use aggressive economic decoupling to weaken China’s global influence, while Harris would maintain Biden’s containment approach through targeted alliances and technology restrictions. Trump’s unilateralism and transactionalism would promote American dominance through a clientele-based alliance system but risk inconsistency, while Harris aims for stability within the alliance framework, though this may necessitate deeper US engagement in global crises.
Rome, IAI, October 2024, 6 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|62), 2024
Africa could move up the value chain by developing industries that locally process CRMs and make ... more Africa could move up the value chain by developing industries that locally process CRMs and make component parts for domestic and export markets, creating a more diversified and resilient continental economy. From the EU’s perspective, this would also mean less vulnerability or dependence on China for cleantech supply chains for Europe.
Rome, IAI, October 2024, 24 p. (IAI Papers ; 24|26), ISBN 978-88-9368-345-6, 2024
Italy and Germany share important similarities in their energy sectors, facing multiple challenge... more Italy and Germany share important similarities in their energy sectors, facing multiple challenges, first and foremost the impact of the energy crisis and its effect on transition efforts. Similarly, changing political contexts at the national and European levels creates new obstacles for climate ambitions, raising the need for bilateral dialogue and common solutions. The two countries' economies are also closely interconnected, increasing the need for joint action on industrial decarbonisation and cross-border interconnections. A coordinated response in tackling the challenges of energy security, competitiveness and sustainability is needed and may yield positive results for both countries and the European Union.
Rome, IAI, October 2024, 5 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|61), 2024
African food systems need to undergo profound changes including the scaling up of agroecological ... more African food systems need to undergo profound changes including the scaling up of agroecological practices, the development of a more inclusive agro-industrial policy and the promotion of diversified diets. For this to happen, sound governance and appropriate capacities are required. If the EU focuses on these priorities, the transformation of African food systems would be within reach.
Rome, IAI, October 2024, 46 p. (Documenti IAI ; 24|11), 2024
This study focuses on the relevance of critical infrastructures in the current context, on the c... more This study focuses on the relevance of critical infrastructures in the current context, on the characteristics of the ecosystem in which ICs operate in the EU, as well as on the implications on their security deriving from events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, or foreign direct investments by third parties. The study then reviews the new sectors covered by the CER Directive and analyses its main elements, also considering the challenges for its implementation. Finally, the study focuses on the adoption of the directive in Italy.
Rome, IAI, October 2024, 30 p., 2024
This is the 14th issue of the Green Deal Watch, a quarterly report produced by the Istituto Affar... more This is the 14th issue of the Green Deal Watch, a quarterly report produced by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) with the support of Edison. This publication aims at monitoring and analysing the initiatives launched by the European Commission and discussed by EU institutions and member states under the umbrella of the Green Deal.
Rome, IAI, October 2024, 5 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|59), 2024
To make its semiconductor dream come true, Europe is adopting new strategies, one of the most imp... more To make its semiconductor dream come true, Europe is adopting new strategies, one of the most important being attracting foreign cutting-edge chip manufacturers such as Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to set up factories in Europe. The question remains, though: Can Europe regain its lost glory through foreign companies’ investments? Can it compete with the East Asian manufacturing powers, which are not only striving to maintain their current dominance but also aggressively positioning themselves to strengthen their future semiconductor strategies?
Rome, IAI, October 2024, 5 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|58), 2024
As the EU and US share fundamental human rights principles, regulatory alignment across the Atlan... more As the EU and US share fundamental human rights principles, regulatory alignment across the Atlantic on protection of personal privacy in the development and use of AI may seem a realistic prospect. However, Washington and Brussels have adopted considerably different approaches to AI regulation in general, and privacy protection in particular. While the EU’s regulatory process has produced several pieces of legislation, the US has so far opted for voluntary guiding principles.
Rome, IAI, October 2024, 5 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|57), 2024
The intensifying dialogue and cooperation between competition authorities across the Atlantic and... more The intensifying dialogue and cooperation between competition authorities across the Atlantic and in the G7 framework to deal with risks stemming from the rise of generative AI is a promising development. A convergence of efforts and policies to safeguard market competition and the interests of consumers can greatly contribute to countering the disruptive effects of rapid technological change and building transparency and trust.
Rome, IAI, October 2024, 5 p. (IAI Commentaries ; 24|56), 2024
While Israel’s onslaught on Hezbollah has tilted the balance of power heavily in its favour, it i... more While Israel’s onslaught on Hezbollah has tilted the balance of power heavily in its favour, it is too early to make predictions – after all, the Middle East has disrupted expectations time and time again in the past. It is still possible though to make some considerations and discuss a few open questions.
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Papers by Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI)
Volume produced in the frame of the New-Med Research Network.
Volume produced in the framework of the strategic partnership between IAI and Intesa Sanpaolo.
Volume published by Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence “Europe in the World” at the Department of European and International Studies of King's College London. Presented in Rome on 16 July 2019.